ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Oct 23, 2017 15:37:14 GMT
ISTM that there has been a significant amount of vent up steam generated by Investors during this year over Defaults and that certain matters that have been discussed ad infinitum on here are (hopefully) coming to a head, particularly concerning one or more Platforms.
Might we see robust FCA and/or RICS action soon? Might there be prosecutions and imprisonment? The industry undoubtedly needs cleaning up.
One can only speculate of course but I wonder what My Fellow Investors think?
Surely ABP2P cannot continue on what I consider a downward spiral.
For the record, I have invested nowt on any Platform for over seven weeks now.
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on Oct 23, 2017 16:35:56 GMT
Would be great to see RICS action on VRs but do not hold your breath.
In my view "robust FCA action" is an oxymoron.
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mary
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Post by mary on Oct 23, 2017 17:27:25 GMT
The FCA have much bigger challenges and are not prone to pro-active intervention.
Proecutions take a long time.
Putiing their own house in order at RICS is unlikely, when as far as I am aware, they don't think there is a problem.
Therefore, a day of reckoning at one, or more, platforms is most likely as defaults mount and recoveries fall short of capital invested. As the property market continues to cool, which is inevitable IMHO (unless there is some miraculously positive solution to Brexit) then the reckoning comes closer. When do the plates stop spinning? Anyone's guess.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Oct 23, 2017 17:44:38 GMT
From (one level of) the inside, we as active P2P investors can feel the heat increasing notch by notch on certain platforms, some from a hotter base than others. From the outside, we're not even at the stage when platforms are ready/forced to recognise significant investor losses and for the moment they're dressed as various shades of "suspended/ongoing/actions underway". Until they do, there's no chance IMV of visible regulatory action, although I'm sure they will assure us after the fact that they "were closely monitoring X" when "X" goes down in flames.  Edit: Would also add, Mary, the scary thing is that what we're seeing currently isn't particularly related to a downturn in the market. Asset prices are still bubbly (ok, London down a bit, but..), the issues at present stem from, IMV, the measures platforms are taking to dogfight it out in a very thin marketplace. |
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Oct 23, 2017 18:14:07 GMT
I have withdrawn about half of my UK P2P money. I think that too many platforms are offering the same type of highly speculative loans with dubious security and to people with bad track records. The defaults are only appearing recently as loans were extended, but there had to be a limit to that.
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panda
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Post by panda on Oct 23, 2017 19:40:35 GMT
Lenders have also been lulled into a false sense of security by platforms with high interest rates initially having zero defaults. Is it an actual increase in risk or lender expectations being unrealistic?
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macq
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Post by macq on Oct 23, 2017 20:21:01 GMT
Lenders have also been lulled into a false sense of security by platforms with high interest rates initially having zero defaults. Is it an actual increase in risk or lender expectations being unrealistic? Probably a bit of both - but there must be a tendency for platforms chasing customers & fees to take more risk with borrowers proposals as are they really likely to turn business away in their quest to make a profit?And with new p2p companies launching every month or so it may well get worse
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Post by bluechip on Oct 24, 2017 10:17:05 GMT
The low hanging fruit was gobbled up long ago, now many platforms appear to be in a position of having to lower their standards to attract business (how high those standards were in the first place is now proving to be 'not very'). As P2P has gradually gone mainstream over the past few years it has meant a transition that most weren't prepared for and also not skilled to handle. As mentioned above the recession hasn't properly started yet and already we are seeing the glue failing where the cracks were hidden.
I've left my money in the quick access Assetz accounts as I have a reasonable amount of confidence that they are one of the better ones, or at least they are paying a good interest rate for relatively quick access to capital so long as you aren't on holiday when/if a problem strikes. All the rest I have pulled out what I can and waiting for the rest to drip in. 2 years ago I did think the market would see some consolidation through Mergers, I think that needs to change now, the market will consolidate on account of platforms going out of business is my new view. Hope to be proven wrong, but the good old days are gone imo, fun whilst it lasted though and I'm sure there are some very good opportunities out there if you want to take a longer amount of time finding those needles in an ever increasing hay stack.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Oct 24, 2017 15:38:39 GMT
ISTM that there has been a significant amount of vent up steam generated by Investors during this year over Defaults and that certain matters that have been discussed ad infinitum on here are (hopefully) coming to a head, particularly concerning one or more Platforms. Might we see robust FCA and/or RICS action soon? Might there be prosecutions and imprisonment? The industry undoubtedly needs cleaning up. One can only speculate of course but I wonder what My Fellow Investors think? Surely ABP2P cannot continue on what I consider a downward spiral. For the record, I have invested nowt on any Platform for over seven weeks now. Agreed there has been a 'vent up of steam' but I'm always reminded that this forum represents a tiny minority of P2P lenders. So whilst we may all go off at the deep end and possibly/probably review our investment decisions the majority of platforms have little or zero problems in funding new loans - irrespective as to how the VR stack's up, etc, etc. As far as the FCA are concerned - I often think they are just after a quiet life and the RICS will do everything to protect their membership. There is little incentive for platforms to change whilst everything gets funded with minimal information offered to investors. The platforms are often (if not always) aware of the full facts but choose to selectively omit any of the negative ones. This convenient omission of material facts is becoming, or so it would appear, more prevalent. So duty of care towards lenders is zilch in many cases IMO - reminds me of the wild west. The only way the P2P sector is going to clean up is once loans stop being funded so readily. It really is that simple. Once or if that scenario should happen then I believe we will see greater disclosure.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Oct 24, 2017 21:06:53 GMT
2 years ago I did think the market would see some consolidation through Mergers, I think that needs to change now, the market will consolidate on account of platforms going out of business is my new view. I concur. I don't see why any platform would want to buy another one. What for? Acquire the lenders? No - they are relatively easy to acquire and there's an abundance of them already. To acquire the loan-book? Not likely - the dodgy loan-book is probably why the platform went bust, and even if the loan-book is good now, I'd not pay much to acquire it...in fact, you'd have to pay me to take your loan-book off you! No, I think it's much more likely we see platforms either (i) blow up due to bad loan-books and frightening the sheep lenders, or (ii) wither due to competition / thin margins / lack of loans, or more frighteningly (iii) blow up due to platform fraud / incompetence / sailing too close-to-the-wind. TBH, I think we are already seeing these things happen. Next 12 months is going to be "interesting". I just need to work out how much I want to be on the pitch, and how much I want to be in the stand watching.
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Post by brokenbiscuits on Oct 25, 2017 5:59:21 GMT
“Defaults mount”?
I’ve been investing in p2p for 2.5 years across a few different platforms and to date the only “losses” ive suffered are the sell out charges at ratesetter.
What I have noticed is a massive increase in is platform bashing, mostly from posters who admit they no longer have anything with that platform?? But continue to turn up on a p2p forum just to tell certain platforms how terrible they are.
With a balanced portfolio and no stock market crash for quite a few years I wonder how painful a few defaults in p2p will look compared to a 40% loss in the stock market.
I’m happy to continue with p2p as a small percentage of my investments. I can continue to get way above inflation returns and if there’s any liquidity left in the p2p when the markets finally crash then I can use some of it to top up when everything is on sale.
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jaswells
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Post by jaswells on Oct 25, 2017 6:26:20 GMT
To be fair p2p has only recently been a far more hands on business as an investor with knowledge of borrowers and risk management becoming far more important and a closer correlation between decision making and likely returns/losses. Much emotion is involved as investors often feel they have misjudged or even lied to. A bit like comments on news articles in the guardian , you are only hearing from the vocal minority, those that actually feel strong enough to put finger to keyboard, most are still just getting on with it. Clear headed DD remains incredibly valuable though.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Oct 25, 2017 9:30:09 GMT
I've said it before & I'll say it again; there is too much money chasing too few loans. Loan quality is compromised as platforms are forced to take loans on-board that are questionable in the least. We have been happy to take 12% plus interest rates but imagine the type of borrower forced to take a loan at 14% plus. I would rather support good quality loan offerings at 7% than some of the 12% plus loans I've seen. Platforms need to address their business models. DD, client quality, valuations & the role of brokers needs to be thoroughly scrutinised by the platform before loans are floated. Forums like this will dissect every detail of a loan & borrower...it could get messy! I just hope that some of the RICS valuers have got their professional indemnity up to date as I can see someone ending up in court! I sincerely hope that the platforms following these threads take on-board our genuine concerns & act immediately before it all goes belly up!
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stokeloans
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Post by stokeloans on Oct 25, 2017 10:05:01 GMT
The low hanging fruit was gobbled up long ago, now many platforms appear to be in a position of having to lower their standards to attract business (how high those standards were in the first place is now proving to be 'not very'). As P2P has gradually gone mainstream over the past few years it has meant a transition that most weren't prepared for and also not skilled to handle. As mentioned above the recession hasn't properly started yet and already we are seeing the glue failing where the cracks were hidden. I've left my money in the quick access Assetz accounts as I have a reasonable amount of confidence that they are one of the better ones, or at least they are paying a good interest rate for relatively quick access to capital so long as you aren't on holiday when/if a problem strikes. All the rest I have pulled out what I can and waiting for the rest to drip in. 2 years ago I did think the market would see some consolidation through Mergers, I think that needs to change now, the market will consolidate on account of platforms going out of business is my new view. Hope to be proven wrong, but the good old days are gone imo, fun whilst it lasted though and I'm sure there are some very good opportunities out there if you want to take a longer amount of time finding those needles in an ever increasing hay stack. Recession,what recession ? GDP is up 4% !
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m2btj
Member of DD Central
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Post by m2btj on Oct 25, 2017 10:58:07 GMT
The low hanging fruit was gobbled up long ago, now many platforms appear to be in a position of having to lower their standards to attract business (how high those standards were in the first place is now proving to be 'not very'). As P2P has gradually gone mainstream over the past few years it has meant a transition that most weren't prepared for and also not skilled to handle. As mentioned above the recession hasn't properly started yet and already we are seeing the glue failing where the cracks were hidden. I've left my money in the quick access Assetz accounts as I have a reasonable amount of confidence that they are one of the better ones, or at least they are paying a good interest rate for relatively quick access to capital so long as you aren't on holiday when/if a problem strikes. All the rest I have pulled out what I can and waiting for the rest to drip in. 2 years ago I did think the market would see some consolidation through Mergers, I think that needs to change now, the market will consolidate on account of platforms going out of business is my new view. Hope to be proven wrong, but the good old days are gone imo, fun whilst it lasted though and I'm sure there are some very good opportunities out there if you want to take a longer amount of time finding those needles in an ever increasing hay stack. Recession,what recession ? GDP is up 4% ! 0.4% isn't quite 4%. We are growing but July-Sept 0.4% figure shows it's fragile...if BoE increases interest rate next month it will be interesting.
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