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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 29, 2017 18:51:19 GMT
Ah but it doesn't really work like that. It's quite complicated .... I sense the methodology either gets considerably more complicated the more datum points you take during the course of an evening, or it considerably simplifies (possibly down to ****** that's expensive [cheap], but I'll have another one regardless [because of].. or similar).
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 29, 2017 18:59:28 GMT
Sterling against the dollar had it's first monthly close below 1.40 since 1985 ish in ~Feb 2016 (can't see a chart so I'm posting from memory). That in itself was a bearish warning. It pottered around 1.43 leading up to the brexit vote and very briefly went >1.50 on the exit poll - before dumping 15 big figures on the Sunderland vote to 1.35. I think a flash crash low. which happened in the States, was around 1.17 before a steady, if uninspiring recovery to 1.35 then where we are today. As for outlook, difficult to say. Historically sterling goes up by the stairs but down by the elevator. That said, once it's apparent just what a gigantic nothingburger brexit actually is, I would expect it to rise to ~1.40 before the next proper dynamic kicks in (whatever that might be). Against the euro, I have a sell eur/gbp order at 94 but wouldn't let it run too far against me if it gets triggered. I for one will be delighted if, despite the political and economic dynamics and developing facts on the ground, we end up with a nothingburger, although the costs of said nothingburger (just in terms of time and bitterly dividing the country if nothing else) will make it one hell of an expensive meal. Agree that other dynamics also likely - geopolitics looks less stable than for decades. Hedge, hedge and hedge.
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 29, 2017 19:00:21 GMT
Ah but it doesn't really work like that. It's quite complicated .... I sense the methodology either gets considerably more complicated the more datum points you take during the course of an evening, or it considerably simplifies (possibly down to ****** that's expensive [cheap], but I'll have another one regardless [because of].. or similar). I see you are a pragmatist
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Post by bracknellboy on Oct 29, 2017 19:36:34 GMT
I sense the methodology either gets considerably more complicated the more datum points you take during the course of an evening, or it considerably simplifies (possibly down to ****** that's expensive [cheap], but I'll have another one regardless [because of].. or similar). I see you are a pragmatist I like to think I can see things from both ends of a glass....
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