star dust
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Post by star dust on Feb 21, 2018 17:02:02 GMT
I get the general sense that people are investing less or pulling out of P2P. This is obviously felt by others too, but maybe it's just certain platforms, or types of investment (self select or auto for example), so I thought a repeat poll of one conducted last year with some supplemental questions might provide some more anecdotal information. This was last year's poll and gives a broad brush to the scale and range of investments among the 249 forum voters last year. p2pindependentforum.com/post/162854/threadPro-Boards poll's don't allow for much finesse so I hope it doesn't look too messy. I've also just discovered that you are only allowed a maximum of 50 questions, so this year you can have up to two votes which are meant to be one per investment rank, and then one within it to indicate whether your investment is likely to increase/ or decrease over the coming year. I suggest if you think they will stay the same or you don't know then just vote once. I have also had to lump some of those millionaires together - it's tough at the top - and have done so where there were no votes in the £3mill to £9mill categories last year. Finally if you've £10m+ invested you can only indicate it will be decreasing next year I'm afraid, unless you'd like to comment in thread .
Apart from the first and last categories I've removed the what you could buy instead as accounting for inflation was just too hard . Apologies that the result is probably a lot more droll .
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Feb 21, 2018 17:39:57 GMT
Peaked in December 2016, down about 25% in the last year, and expect about the same reduction over the next year.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Feb 21, 2018 18:03:45 GMT
The problem is: where else to put money to get a return sufficient to guard against inflation? Property (doom and gloom abounds)? Stocks (recent peaks, volatility)? Bonds (likely to come under pressure as interest rates rise)? Other alternative investments (risk, liquidity).
I'm cautiously staying the same amount invested in P2P, using IFISAs where possible to maximise returns, and actively managing, which is time consuming.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Feb 21, 2018 18:52:13 GMT
I continue to try to increase P2P holdings, but am moving to lower-return/risk investments, and switching over to IFISAs to partly compensate.
I'm increasing P2P due to a lack of acceptable alternatives.
My P2P allocations (albeit increased) are moving down the risk curve partly due to a lack of acceptable loans within P2P, but also because I no longer want to spend so much time managing my loanbook - I just don't see the "headline" extra return as worth it (particularly once the real return after losses are considered).
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Post by vaelin on Feb 21, 2018 19:02:34 GMT
A good place to get this data is looking at cached versions of AltFi market data and comparing them to now. I recently started manually caching the data so I could make comparisons over time, and there are some older caches available. Current market data available here: www.altfidata.com/marketdata/As of the last 90 days, the total market volume for all of the platforms listed on AltFi was 1297.6 million GBP (this is for UK platforms only). For anyone viewing this thread from the future, you can see a cached version of that page here: web.archive.org/web/20180221184058/https://www.altfidata.com/marketdata/If we go back in time 3 months to 22 November 2017, we can see that the trailing volume for the 90 days prior to that was 1265.2 million GBP. That implies a 2.5% increase in volume between those two points in time. You can see that data here: web.archive.org/web/20171122083449/https://www.altfidata.com/marketdata/There was another convenient capture almost exactly 3 months before that date, on 20 August 2017. The trailing 90 day volume for that date was 1334.4 million GBP. Since then, 90 day trailing volume of the market has fallen by about 2.8%. Data here: web.archive.org/web/20170820011639/https://www.altfidata.com/marketdata/Edit: Date | 20 August 2017 | 22 November 2017 | 21 February 2018 | 90 Day Volume (mil GBP) | 1334.4 | 1265.2 | 1297.6 |
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2018 21:30:49 GMT
Good idea star dust . The weighted average (median?) of each band as to who intends to increase / decrease their allocation to p2p could be interesting.... especially to platforms with loans that will need to be refinanced. Even if only on-platform.....
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msenanna
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Post by msenanna on Feb 21, 2018 22:12:33 GMT
Started in summer 2017, likely to stay fairly static although will be moving funds into IFISA in 2018/19 (what isn't already in IFISAs.
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Feb 21, 2018 22:28:44 GMT
Thanks for putting up the poll star dustMy P2P lending is down by about 30% from a year ago and those that I am investing in are rarely in the 12% bracket. Those legacy 12% loans - well many are in default whatever the platform would like us to believe combined with their BS updates. Apart from the risk and the cavalier attitude towards lenders funds which seems to apply to many platforms, the amount of time to carry out DD is just too time consuming. Often the DD throws up results which reinforces my thinking regarding the cavalier attitude. The P2P market is obviously highly competitive so I feel that loans that would not have been offered say 2-3 years ago are now commonplace. No proof - just a gut feeling and when your confidence in a platform goes, then it's time to move on.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Feb 21, 2018 22:30:32 GMT
Been in the game four years, great fun and reasonably honest industry back in the early days but avarice has transformed them and most Platforms are now untrustworthy and downright deceitful. Some have been caught out on here blatantly lying.
I'm mostly winding down, the industry stinks to high heaven now and The FCA, RICS et al couldn't give a toss.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Feb 21, 2018 22:40:03 GMT
I’m probably increasing if decent loans are available. My loan portfolio is performing extremely well with a smattering of defaults that I’m not concerned about.
Definitely avoiding any crxp like Lendy’s recent attempt at the worst loan proposition I have seen to date.
ABLrates amortising loans are my favourite
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ozboy
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Post by ozboy on Feb 21, 2018 22:51:03 GMT
"I’m probably increasing if decent loans are available." - but how do you uncover the "decent loans" hazellend, when Platforms deliberately withhold negative material information which can be nigh impossible to detect and which is not exposed on here?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Feb 21, 2018 23:17:27 GMT
"I’m probably increasing if decent loans are available." - but how do you uncover the "decent loans" hazellend, when Platforms deliberately withhold negative material information which can be nigh impossible to detect and which is not exposed on here? I go by gut feeling lol
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 21, 2018 23:19:32 GMT
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gibmike
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What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
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Post by gibmike on Feb 21, 2018 23:31:18 GMT
I am consoliding this year to two platforms, four in 2017.
Same fund volume however.
Mike
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Post by samford71 on Feb 21, 2018 23:47:07 GMT
I halved my P2P investments during 2017, with most of that occuring in 1H17 as I reduced exposure to my "algo" trading platforms: SS and FC. Through 2015/16, SS had been brilliant liquidity trade given the combination of INPL and SM (selling large short dated loans to reinvest in small long dated loans). It was always going to be vulnerable once NPLs started to build (and unlikely to survive FCA regulation), so this was wound down from 4Q16 to be out by end 2Q17. FC was was all about rotating capital to extract cashback (and a bit of capital appreciation). When cashback went it was just a case of selling the portfolio down which again was done by 2Q17. I continued to reduce TC and exited MI. The only major P2P platform where I added was to RS Australia where I still liked the 3-year amortizers at 8-9%. I added a bit to some smaller platforms where the loan books have yet to season enough to generate the inevitable NPLs. I added to some positions in closed-ended direct lending funds (FCIF etc) that fit into tax-wrappers. I still have precisely zero interest in the IFISA.
I have lower return expectations at this point from P2P. The easy money has already from being an early adopter. I expect defaults rates will rise from here (and recoveries fall), both as loan books season but also as the credit cycle moves toward the end-game. While Brexit is still a major issue for the UK, I'm generally a more positive on debt which is correlated with the real economy (unsecured consumer and SME debt) since the US and European economies are still expanding nicely and have yet to overheat. I'm far less keen on secured debt on property given it's high correlation with long-dated real yield levels. These are likely to rise as the global economy improves, with the added risk of a late burst of fiscal expansion.
I'm running an increasingly large cash balance at this point but I'm unconcerned. I've never understood why people focus on being "fully invested" or worry about "deadtime". I care about the risk level I'm running and potential drawdowns, not some arbitrary level of cash. 4Q17 was probably the nadir for global volatility so cash will increasingly be the order of the day.
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