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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 14:30:09 GMT
I've thought through my concerns about the next Russian attack. My view is that, while I appreciate the USA, French, German words of support I suspect the UK will be the "point of contact" since the Russians have chosen the UK to attack for a reason, probably because with Trump a bit confused and Brexit our usual allies are "uncertain" Logically they will send home some diplomats but I posit that they will also up the anti.
1) Apart from another nerve attack, which would make liars of their management, the most obvious thing would be a cyber attack or reduce Methane supply to the UK. It is hard to see the Methane attack really working, they failed in the Ukraine and while they have built pipelines around that route (thanks to our friends the Turks) they might attempt to limit access. 2) Nationalising BPs assets would be an easy one and certainly I have not owned that share since before they decided to pollute the Gulf of Mexico 3) A cyber attack (ie hybrid war) possibly coupled with social media and pressure on possible allies is the one that worries me. It is all well and good if I have cash if say, all the banks are suddenly empty.
What I have done is cashed up any shares in +- 3% margin area that have sat still for some time. There are only two pieces of news that will affect the UK in the next few weeks, Brexit movement and such a Russian attack. The first could move shares any direction but a Russian cyber attack will only take stocks down. Some I've put into dollar assets and the rest in cash.
Affect on P2P.....
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Mar 16, 2018 17:40:45 GMT
Something has been bugging (pun intended ) me about this recent incident over the past couple of days. Does anyone else find it strange, to say the least, that this chap was based in Salisbury? Minutes away from Porton Down, Salisbury Plain, and numerous military bases. <disclaimer I'm married to a Ukranian with mixed Ukranian/Russian heritage which is very common there> Yes me also. A total guess is he was carrying on his sis activities (i.e. spying) and maybe those bases nearby were convenient for his work. That might explain why the Russians allegedly thought he was fair game. I have no idea about the practicalities but I would like to know more about why we haven't or unable to give the russian's or at least some independent body a sample of the nerve agent. Whatever the realities I feel sorry for the the policeman, the chap's daughter and even himself - spying might be a treacherous crime but somehow on a personal level I don't feel it is anywhere near as bad as direct murder. My view on Putin is that most Russians like Putin not so much because he is seen as strong against the west but because he is seen to have put an end to the abject chaos that followed the end of the ussr.
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Mar 16, 2018 18:07:08 GMT
Something has been bugging (pun intended ) me about this recent incident over the past couple of days. Does anyone else find it strange, to say the least, that this chap was based in Salisbury? Minutes away from Porton Down, Salisbury Plain, and numerous military bases. <disclaimer I'm married to a Ukranian with mixed Ukranian/Russian heritage which is very common there> Yes me also. A total guess is he was carrying on his sis activities (i.e. spying) and maybe those bases nearby were convenient for his work. That might explain why the Russians allegedly thought he was fair game. I have no idea about the practicalities but I would like to know more about why we haven't or unable to give the russian's or at least some independent body a sample of the nerve agent. . Sample sent (being sent) to UN Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons AIUI
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jjc
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Post by jjc on Mar 17, 2018 22:40:51 GMT
A lot of truths there michaelc . I’m no Russia/Putin apologist, but it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking our world views are the whole & unadulterated truth & would be readily accepted by everyone else (if only they could be awakened from their ignorance). On this particular case there are suggestions Skripal might not have been leading as quiet a life in retirement as generally accepted. Even if that were to be the case (perhaps making him a legitimate target again) the type of material used & the threat to public safety it created made it difficult for the UK govt not to take a strong stance. Rallying allies to its cause, going to the UN & involving the OPCW were therefore justifiable actions. Pointing the finger at Russia or Putin personally (in the absence of any irrefutable evidence) more questionable. Perhaps the public needs a culprit to be quickly identified or it gets confused? As someone who has lived or worked for most of his life in dozens of countries I find it maybe easier to hold nuanced views on international issues. I don’t think the British public (or any other country’s citizens) are idiots though, it’s a question of informing them dispassionately, & on national security questions this can be difficult if not impossible or even counter-productive (a simple narrative with the baddies clearly listed is easier to sell & binds the nation together). The UK’s relationship with Russia has always been problematic, for many historical & other reasons. But we should not let that blind us from uncomfortable truths. Distrust is mutual because both sides feel threatened by the other. Easy to forget that the West has (to Russian eyes) launched an aggressive drive into their sphere of influence that, sooner or later, was going to result in a backlash. That happened in Ukraine, first with NATO & then the EU’s expansion east. In the same way that nobody would have accepted the Russians moving west into the Americas (let alone Mexico) there was no way Russia was going to let that happen (or lose access to Sevastopol, same as the US wouldn’t roll over & let the Chinese have Guam/Hawaii)). But the narrative we’re sold is Putin annexed Crimea etc because he’s a despot out to build a new Russian empire, & should be hit with sanctions. To a Russian that seems absurd (& just a little bit hostile). As for your last sentence I agree entirely. The western media’s view of Russia with Gorbachev the good guy & Putin the bad guy is a million miles from how the way ordinary Russians see things. They see the former at best as an irresponsible idiot & more likely almost a traitor for leading the country into a chaotic breakup. Putin’s move to banish the oligarchs (following Yelstin’s vodka-fuelled stint in power that let them in) from intruding into politics would (if it weren’t Russia & wasn’t Putin) be seen to be perfectly normal logical steps for good governance in any country. Standing up to unfriendly expansionist forces (as they are perceived to be) another quite unremarkable POV. Also worth questioning to what extent Putin really calls all the shots now in Russia. Khodorkovsky’s interview on Newsnight worth watching if you missed it, & interested to hear your wife’s views (if she speaks Russian) on whether the “criminal gangs” mentioned were somehow lost in translation (ie was K referring to the inner circle in the Kremlin or organized crime / other external forces?) Personally I find the thought that Putin may not be able to easily relinquish his position as perfectly plausible (upsets the apple-cart with all the unknowns this could lead to). www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09w3nps/newsnight-15032018Whilst anything is possible, the use of a nerve agent on UK soil to me (assuming it was the Russians) looks more like a sign of things not being fully under Putin’s control. They surely knew the material would be identified, so using it (if sanctioned by Putin) would have had to have been a decision to tell the world 1. We have it 2. We’ll use it wherever we want to 3. This is (in a way) war. That smacks of over-kill (to round up support for the elections) & uncharacteristically (for Putin) badly thought-out. If otoh the intent was to send a message to Russian traitors around the world it would have been enough to knock him off with more conventional methods. Relations with Russia are going to take decades to re-build, & can only be done if both sides genuinely understand the other’s position (& legitimate right to self-protection). A new kid (big fast-grown teenager already actually) has arrived on the block, a game-changer that neither of us can afford to ignore. For a look at what this means (we’re seeing this already), & the best reasoned views on geo-politics I’m aware of, worth looking at this guy en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2018 8:46:28 GMT
A little too Putin supporting for me.
I understand Russia's fears of western expansion. I find Russia's usual stance whenever something happens that might of been their fault is Shaggy's "it wasn't me" but the actions afterwards are always to promote the actual actor, hence the Litvenenko poisoner just happened to become a Russian MP. The "little green men" that invaded Ukraine just happened to be Russian soldiers. The MH17 jetliner just happened to get shot down by Russian made equipment when Russia was invading Ukraine ( I have little doubt but Russia is an expert on shedding doubt). The attacks on Georgia have to be seen to be believed. The list goes on and on, all under a Putin Presidential/Prime Ministership.
This amount of lying adds up to the point where the UK public know when a Russian Minister is lying, as the old joke goes, "when they open their mouths".
hybrid warfare is a tricky thing to understand. My experience of working with Russian businesses is that there is no concept of win-win, only win-lose, luckily (and it was a lot of luck) we never found out what win-lose meant.
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duck
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Post by duck on Mar 18, 2018 9:45:34 GMT
To quote Dr Robin Black who was until recently our top scientist in this field at Porton Down. This view is also shared by The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. This statement is less than 2 years old.
In recent years, there has been much speculation that a fourth generation of nerve agents, ‘Novichoks’ (newcomer), was developed in Russia, beginning in the 1970s as part of the ‘Foliant’ programme, with the aim of finding agents that would compromise defensive countermeasures. Information on these compounds has been sparse in the public domain, mostly originating from a dissident Russian military chemist, Vil Mirzayanov. No independent confirmation of the structures or the properties of such compounds has been published.
The whole point of this 'generation' of chemical agents was that they could be manufactured in 'ordinary' laboratories from relatively readily available chemical agents thereby bypassing many controls on restricted substances. It is for these reasons that I am skeptical of many of the claims that are currently being made.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 18, 2018 13:55:06 GMT
I think there is some overthinking of this nerve agent attack. Is anyone prepared to put forward some alternative facts that indicate that the Litvinenko murder was carried out by anyone else other than the Russian state? No? Then anything said to excuse Putin and and his stooges of this one is a waste of time.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Mar 18, 2018 19:03:56 GMT
Saddam was the bad guy, Gaddafi was the bad guy, Assad was the bad guy, Putin is the bad guy...
Perpetual war is good business. In fact the 'economy' depends on it. The military munitions business is the greatest business of all.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 18, 2018 19:33:02 GMT
Saddam was the bad guy, Gaddafi was the bad guy, Assad was the bad guy, Putin is the bad guy... Perpetual war is good business. In fact the 'economy' depends on it. The military munitions business is the greatest business of all. I was going to write a restrained critique of the above post, but then I realised I should better spend the time planting some parsnips and leeks.
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Post by df on Mar 18, 2018 20:41:28 GMT
I suspect it is more about Putin having "an election" in the next few weeks and hence his announcement of having hypersonic nuclear weapons and from a Russian perspective demonstrating that he has finally hit one of the countries that encircle mother russia. NB from his people's perspective the west is a godless, agressive, semi-nazi society that constantly tries to weaken them. Hence any push back against 007 gets Putin more support and so fewer votes to miss-count. Whatever May does, she gets no wins from this. If she hurts russia the natives feel attacked and so support the criminal regime, if she does nothing they warm to the cleverness of their great leader. None of this is about the UK, this is all about the Kremlin and the messages he wants to send. It's a bit like if Unbolted offered 2% CB to fill £500 loan The problem with this theory is - Putin has enormous support in Russia and doesn't need to perform any tricks to be elected. But I agree, May is not winning anything from this. I think it is embarrassing that PM and FM issuing accusations against president of another country based on guesses and speculations instead of facts. Very unprofessional IMO.
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angrysaveruk
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Back and to the left..
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Post by angrysaveruk on Mar 18, 2018 23:19:33 GMT
I can't understand why the Russians would do this right before the World Cup. spend what must be tens of billions on hosting the World Cup then kill someone they could have killed years ago when they arrested him in Russia and his daughter in a major international incident.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 7:39:19 GMT
Perhaps you both don't understand the message because you are not the intended recipient of the message?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 19, 2018 14:33:47 GMT
I can't understand why the Russians would do this right before the World Cup. spend what must be tens of billions on hosting the World Cup then kill someone they could have killed years ago when they arrested him in Russia and his daughter in a major international incident. Perhaps because i) it was before the Russian elections, with Putin/others wanting to send a message on how they treat people they perceive as traitors, or ii) they're hoping people will think "can't be them, why would they do it now ?"
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Mar 19, 2018 15:35:01 GMT
Russia (Putin) couldn't care less about public opinion outside Russia, they want to be seen to be bold, brutal, and just plain scary.
The incident with Angela Merkel and the giant dog in the Kremlin tells you all you need to know about the Russian (Putin) mentality.
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Mar 19, 2018 17:29:05 GMT
If you want to upset Putin, go to the World Cup with a t-shirt that says:
DOBBY
must protect
Harry Kane
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