bg
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Post by bg on Jul 26, 2018 10:18:54 GMT
How can the cumulated level of completed loans ever decrease? I take data snaps of the SM every 15 mins. Here's a graph of loans for sale at 1% discount over the past 3 months. You can see the spike in may which disappears and then the more recent spike. I have no idea why it comes up as such a small size though....have tried fiddling but can't seem to do anything about it (views much bigger when I open on my computer). Hi bg - we can click your graph to expand it, so no problem. And thanks, very interesting. No probs... What I have noticed is that there is definitely a wave of selling going through (clearly the bloated PM is a big driver of that). Total loans for sale at a discount has moved up quite a bit:- but, that selling isn't really in loans close to maturity date (which is what I would expect if people were really panicking about non repayment). What has driven this is a sudden surge in listing in fairly new loans.
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bg
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Post by bg on Jul 26, 2018 10:21:06 GMT
Here's a graph of loans for sale at a discount in the last 10 days of the selling window (ie 30-40 days until maturity). Only £56k which is pretty standard really:-
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bg
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Post by bg on Jul 26, 2018 10:25:00 GMT
How can the cumulated level of completed loans ever decrease? I take data snaps of the SM every 15 mins. Here's a graph of loans for sale at 1% discount over the past 3 months. You can see the spike in may which disappears and then the more recent spike. I have no idea why it comes up as such a small size though....have tried fiddling but can't seem to do anything about it (views much bigger when I open on my computer). Thanks for the chart bg . The SM is an interesting indicator but note the level of ~£350k of loans at -1% is insignificant compared to the tens of millions of active loans with more than one month remaining that could be offered at -1%. The SM may represent the current state of available cashflow on the platform and this would be expected to by cyclical with end of tax year, payment on account, holidays even... it'll be interesting to see whether the level decreases post Jul 31, the SA payment on account deadline. Yes agree...what I think is that what we are seeing now is not really significant. It just looks bad as generally there is little available on the PM and not too much discounted on the SM. £400k is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. It will be interesting to see what happens when a couple of big repayments come in. That will be a better indicator of any fall in sentiment towards FS from investors. £600k loan should be repaying tomorrow, hopefully thats just the start and it helps improve liquidity for everyone. If I was FS though I would throttle back on the new loans for a while as things can become a self fulfilling prophecy if it gets completely out of hand.
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rogerthat
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Post by rogerthat on Jul 26, 2018 12:35:40 GMT
"To help speed up the funding the borrower has authorised a 1% cashback. This will be paid to investors when the loan is activated. This applies to all existing investors as well as new investors" I haven't got a problem with that but clearly FS cannot see that the crux of the problem across the whole platform is the ever increasing potential debt mountain of late and overdue loans, that has made investors understandably hesitant in light of FS's perceived nonchalance in tackling it. Offer incentives by all means (even if it is the borrower in this instance ) but deal with the elephant in the room and restore some credibility first and the funding just might recover I would disagree and say it's just the natural cycle of money flows in and out of the platform. I'm not saying there aren't any issues or problem loans on FS but I can't say anything has significantly worsened in the last 3 weeks. People were making the exact same comments when liquidity was in a similar position mid May and it resolved itself by mid June. Likewise on numerous occasions over the past 2-3 years. 2811652081, for example should be repaying £600k tomorrow and all it takes is one or two other decent sized loans to repay (you never know!) and the liquidity situation can flip within a few days. There is only £1m for sale at a discount on the SM and clearing that significantly would greatly improve matters and lead to people feeling more confident to buy on the PM again. There are a whole host of factors affecting sentiment and I would imagine fears over a Brexit no deal are towards the top of that list. The vast majority of investors of course do not read this forum but they do see the news. I doubt that the repayment of 2811652081 "due" to be paid tomorrow will have any effect on liquidity at all as 48% of the loan was held by 3 investors and ~66% by less than 10. From my personal perspective I currently have 6 figures invested across the platform but due, in part, to the full picture (no pun intended) not being disclosed before investing, now have a disproportionate amount invested in loans that are now unredeemed or grossly overdue. My liquidity should have materialised from those loans months ago and although I have further funds, until some tangible progress is made on recovering that money, I have no intention of investing anything further. Worse still, my confidence in FS's ability to manage the current situation is ebbing by the day, exacerbated by updates which suggest that a head buried in the sand approach is the way to go. 18 loans currently looking for £3million + coupled with a potentially enormous debt mountain doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence. As for Brexit and Project Fear a no deal will suit me just fine but for the other 27 ? I very much doubt it. Of course, an amicable agreement by all sides would be preferable but if not, its about time this country stood on its own two feet again
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jul 26, 2018 12:44:50 GMT
"its about time this country stood on its own two feet again"
Not if the price is cutting one of your arms off
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bg
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Post by bg on Jul 26, 2018 12:54:11 GMT
I would disagree and say it's just the natural cycle of money flows in and out of the platform. I'm not saying there aren't any issues or problem loans on FS but I can't say anything has significantly worsened in the last 3 weeks. People were making the exact same comments when liquidity was in a similar position mid May and it resolved itself by mid June. Likewise on numerous occasions over the past 2-3 years. 2811652081, for example should be repaying £600k tomorrow and all it takes is one or two other decent sized loans to repay (you never know!) and the liquidity situation can flip within a few days. There is only £1m for sale at a discount on the SM and clearing that significantly would greatly improve matters and lead to people feeling more confident to buy on the PM again. There are a whole host of factors affecting sentiment and I would imagine fears over a Brexit no deal are towards the top of that list. The vast majority of investors of course do not read this forum but they do see the news. I doubt that the repayment of 2811652081 "due" to be paid tomorrow will have any effect on liquidity at all as 48% of the loan was held by 3 investors and ~66% by less than 10. From my personal perspective I currently have 6 figures invested across the platform but due, in part, to the full picture (no pun intended) not being disclosed before investing, now have a disproportionate amount invested in loans that are now unredeemed or grossly overdue. My liquidity should have materialised from those loans months ago and although I have further funds, until some tangible progress is made on recovering that money, I have no intention of investing anything further. Worse still, my confidence in FS's ability to manage the current situation is ebbing by the day, exacerbated by updates which suggest that a head buried in the sand approach is the way to go. 18 loans currently looking for £3million + coupled with a potentially enormous debt mountain doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence. As for Brexit and Project Fear a no deal will suit me just fine but for the other 27 ? I very much doubt it. Of course, an amicable agreement by all sides would be preferable but if not, its about time this country stood on its own two feet again I appreciate that many people are p1ssed off (and very rightly so about some of the loans) but that goes for all the platforms. What interests me is if there has been a serious erosion in confidence in the platform with a lot of people now looking to withdraw (and I don't just mean amongst the small minority of vocal message board users). For me, the evidence is not there at all. Nothing has happened in the last 3 weeks (before that liquidity was the best it has been in many months) to indicate this would be the case....the serious problem loans have been serious problems for years now. I haven't seen any big new issues arise in the last 3 weeks (please correct me if I'm wrong). As for the £600k, I don't see why investors having large holdings in this loan makes any difference. Are they any less likely to reinvest this money than a smaller investor? I don't think they are. I draw nothing from that. As for Brexit, it may well suit you but what worries me is a cliff edge no deal that people are unprepared for. No matter what you think of leaving the EU businesses and the market will react very negatively to it, most definitely in the short term. Banks will be lending less, commercial property prices will fall dramatically (in fact the market will just freeze in the short term). This means that the chance of capital losses by enforced selling into a distressed market increases. Asset prices are reacting to this, the £ has weakened the past couple of weeks, spreads on UK CLO products have widened fair amount. FS isn't a true market...assets can only trade at 99-101. In a market shock scenario the SM would just freeze as things should be trading much lower - but FS do not allow this. Your personal preference may be for the UK to leave the EU whatever it takes but that does not mean that secured commercial lending markets will react positively to it - and that is what I am interested in.
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sqh
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Before P2P, savers put a guinea in a piggy bank, now they smash the banks to become guinea pigs.
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Post by sqh on Jul 26, 2018 14:40:44 GMT
I appreciate that many people are p1ssed off (and very rightly so about some of the loans) but that goes for all the platforms. What interests me is if there has been a serious erosion in confidence in the platform with a lot of people now looking to withdraw (and I don't just mean amongst the small minority of vocal message board users). For me, the evidence is not there at all. Nothing has happened in the last 3 weeks (before that liquidity was the best it has been in many months) to indicate this would be the case....the serious problem loans have been serious problems for years now. I haven't seen any big new issues arise in the last 3 weeks (please correct me if I'm wrong). I think there has been a change in sentiment over the last 3 weeks. The June newsletter looked good, with 11 loans highlighted as being shortly refinanced, repaid or renewed in June. I'm in most of them and was happy to see the FS forecast. Problem is, 7 weeks later I don't think any of them have been refinanced, repaid or renewed, in fact some have gone backwards.
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stev
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Post by stev on Jul 26, 2018 16:18:55 GMT
The platforms that have an at par secondary market tend to suffer from feast or famine and I wonder whether the artificial -1% lower limit is having a similar effect here. Loans start to accumulate on the secondary market because the discount can’t be lowered to the point where they would sell. People see this and think they had better sell their loans while they still can. This leads to more loans building up at -1%, and so on and so on.
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Post by boudicca on Aug 7, 2018 12:50:08 GMT
Confirmation received that the amended planning has been approved - the planning portal will be updated within 7-10 days to reflect this.
Just seen this, now that planning has been approved will the valuation be increased by much ? - as the current valuation is only for outline planning permission.
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Post by mrclondon on Aug 7, 2018 12:52:24 GMT
Confirmation received that the amended planning has been approved - the planning portal will be updated within 7-10 days to reflect this.
Just seen this, now that planning has been approved will the valuation be increased by much ? - as the current valuation is only for outline planning permission.
Care needed.
fundingsecure would you please add the planning ref onto the loan updates. The only application I can see (link on DD Central for those with access) was submitted May 2018, validated by the council July 2018, and the public consultation is due to expire on 16th August (in 9 days time).
LATE EDIT (2nd Oct):
FS appeared to change the wording on the loan and the claim re approved ammended planning was removed. In the meantime the public consultation has been extented until 10th Oct 18.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Aug 7, 2018 12:57:16 GMT
Cashback of 1% offered by borrower/FS so all lenders pile into the loan. Quick before it's filled. The only thing i'm doing quickly is running for the exit, unfortunately without the Picasso and Chagall...
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Post by boudicca on Aug 13, 2018 13:25:04 GMT
Confirmation received that the amended planning has been approved - the planning portal will be updated within 7-10 days to reflect this.
Just seen this, now that planning has been approved will the valuation be increased by much ? - as the current valuation is only for outline planning permission.
Care needed.
fundingsecure would you please add the planning ref onto the loan updates. The only application I can see (link on DD Central for those with access) was submitted May 2018, validated by the council July 2018, and the public consultation is due to expire on 16th August (in 9 days time). Was this done ? I can't access DD central, is this still open to new posters ? - applied but no response. Thanks.
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Post by mrclondon on Oct 2, 2018 11:27:48 GMT
I've just paid for the land registry title documents (both the freehold and leasehold) of what should be this site but there is no FS charge against either. This may be similiar to the Lytham St Annes Land loan where its believed that FS have a deed of assignment over the first charge that favours a third party. Or there may be an entirely different explanation.
More details on DD Central.
Also, there appears to be a connection (common director) between the 2018 planning applicant here and the 2018 planning applicant on the defaulted Astbury Property loan.
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 16, 2018 12:19:59 GMT
Bump - with a renewal in progress, it might be worth a re-read of the post I made in October (immediately before this one) regarding the lack of charges at the LR. Yes, this is another of the long list of loans for which FS are unwilling to provide clarity on how the loan is secured.
Investing in this loan, or any of the other FS loans for which the security position is unclear is a straightforward gamble.
(To be fair, there is some FS activity noted in the LR alert stream for at least one of the titles dated 12th Dec 2018)
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rogerthat
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Post by rogerthat on May 18, 2019 22:54:20 GMT
Someone burning the midnight oil at Stokenchurch ? T4 comes to the platform on Sunday 19th at 10am
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