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Post by fiatlender on Sept 24, 2018 11:57:47 GMT
A wall of money is now moving into the 5 year market this morning. lt seems that people are now waking up to the good rates there is now on offer. But at least this money looks too have smarten its act up, as a good chunk of it is now been set at 6.4%. This 6.4% is mostly market rate money, not money from people setting rates.
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Post by ratrace on Sept 24, 2018 12:06:54 GMT
A wall of money is now moving into the 5 year market this morning. lt seems that people are now waking up to the good rates there is now on offer. But at least this money looks too have smarten its act up, as a good chunk of it is now been set at 6.4%. This 6.4% is mostly market rate money, not money from people setting rates. Well it must have been based on the market rate last night as this money was moving into 6.4% when the current market rate was between 5.8 to 6.1%.
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Post by Ace on Sept 24, 2018 12:19:17 GMT
At this rate we'll soon be calling 6.5% chasers dumb money! Could get to 7 by the end of the weekend Oops, may have got that a bit wrong. Over half a million queued at 6.4% now
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TheDriver
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Slightly bonkers
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Post by TheDriver on Sept 24, 2018 12:33:27 GMT
At this rate we'll soon be calling 6.5% chasers dumb money! Could get to 7 by the end of the weekend Oops, may have got that a bit wrong. Over half a million queued at 6.4% now Not that far out - 6.6 was available most of yesterday. 6.4 is today's MR, hence the concentration at that level for this morning's reinvestments
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Sept 24, 2018 13:39:59 GMT
There's nothing new to see here. It's the same thing every week ... except that each week the rate gets a tenth or two higher.
There's always a big wall of automatic orders on Monday (because there are 3 times as many repayments on a Monday), set at a rate averaged from weekend matches. Based on the last few weeks, it will probably hold rates from going higher for a few days. Today the wall will be partly absorbed, but today's average will inevitably be less than 6.4%, so tomorrow the wall will be at a lower rate, but not so huge. More will be eaten; repeat. By mid-week, the wall will be overcome.
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tyrex
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Post by tyrex on Sept 24, 2018 19:33:00 GMT
These 6% rates are so tempting... I stuck in a few k over the weekend at 6-5-6.6% but the Mrs won't let me put any more in, she prefers the safety of a 1.44% building society account
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Post by Ace on Sept 24, 2018 21:01:48 GMT
These 6% rates are so tempting... I stuck in a few k over the weekend at 6-5-6.6% but the Mrs won't let me put any more in, she prefers the safety of a 1.44% building society account Are you a man or a mou... Sorry, no time for this post, apparently I need to wash up right now.
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mary
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Post by mary on Sept 30, 2018 16:58:44 GMT
6.7% tonight. Maybe 6.8%.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Oct 1, 2018 16:14:49 GMT
6.6% on 5yr currently
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Oct 1, 2018 18:11:29 GMT
It's past 7pm and the 5 Year repayments still haven't finished processing.
When that's all done and the automatic lender orders are created, the wall this week is going to be massive.
... (8:20pm) Not too bad: £451K @ 6.4%
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Oct 2, 2018 11:44:21 GMT
It's past 7pm and the 5 Year repayments still haven't finished processing.
When that's all done and the automatic lender orders are created, the wall this week is going to be massive.
... (8:20pm) Not too bad: £451K @ 6.4%
We have £1m to be lent at 6.3%. Were you able to tell that specific 'wall' (amount and rate) was going to occur? If so, how?
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Oct 2, 2018 12:00:05 GMT
I hoovered up a few k at 6.6%
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Oct 2, 2018 13:30:54 GMT
It's past 7pm and the 5 Year repayments still haven't finished processing.
When that's all done and the automatic lender orders are created, the wall this week is going to be massive.
... (8:20pm) Not too bad: £451K @ 6.4%
We have £1m to be lent at 6.3%. Were you able to tell that specific 'wall' (amount and rate) was going to occur? If so, how?
Normally the wall appears early in the day, soon after repayments have been completed. Monday's repayment processing was so slow that the wall didn't appear until the evening. It was about £451K (lower than I was expecting for the start of a month), set at 6.4% because that was the average rate matched on Sunday (which seems about right).
Prior to the wall appearing, people matched at higher rates. It's actually a pretty good tactic, taking advantage of the (sometimes) slow processing on Mondays. Although actually those rates had also been available easily on Sunday.
Being so late in the day, there was very little opportunity for Monday's wall to be eaten away. Virtually all of it carried over into Tuesday, where it was joined by Tuesday's addition to the wall. When that happens, the remaining automatic Monday orders at 6.4% are moved to the new market rate, which as it happens was 6.3%. So we have a huge wall at 6.3% now.
It is probable the wall will move down another tenth (or perhaps two) tomorrow, because today's average is likely to be less than 6.3%.
Very roughly speaking, my estimate is that each day adds anything from £200K to £600K to the wall. How much gets eaten per day depends on borrower demand, but recently it's ticking along at about £500K. So you can sort of judge how high and where the wall will be, and how long it will take to be overcome. This week, it is quite an major obstacle.
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smezz
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Post by smezz on Oct 2, 2018 13:42:04 GMT
It may be that having the first of the month on a Monday makes things slower than a normal weekend.
There could be some monthly admin to do.
Also the proliferation of small orders will have a growing effect. My own spreadsheet shows evidence of this!
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Oct 2, 2018 21:24:44 GMT
It is probable the wall will move down another tenth (or perhaps two) tomorrow, because today's average is likely to be less than 6.3%.
Well, a massive chunk of the wall was matched today: probably almost £600K at 6.3%. It may have been enough to keep the average rate at 6.3%, which will become the location of tomorrow's wall.
Such is its size, I would judge that the wall will persist until Thursday or Friday, with slightly higher rates to follow at the weekend.
This sounds like a weather forecast. Probably about as accurate, too!
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