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Post by martin44 on Nov 15, 2018 2:50:14 GMT
Strong words today in parliament about the delivery of a positive brexit agreement, personally i see it as a fudge... or maybe even a betrayal............. thoughts?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Nov 15, 2018 7:26:22 GMT
Strong words today in parliament about the delivery of a positive brexit agreement, personally i see it as a fudge... or maybe even a betrayal............. thoughts? I haven't seen details of the deal yet, but it was always going to be a fudge unless we just walked away. We were never going to get what we wanted in the face of twenty odd other countries wanting what they wanted. And it still hasn't been accepted here or in the EU. Whatever the deal I hope it's not written in stone!
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aj
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Post by aj on Nov 15, 2018 8:23:15 GMT
Too much was promised from Brexit, it was sold as a way to somehow rid ourselves of the EUs problems while retaining all its benefits.
In the real world this isn't possible, so it cannot deliver 'The electorates vote'.
I do worry that we are going to get a particularly poor deal out of it and international finance seems to agree. (GBP tanked after Brexit vote and has never recovered)
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 15, 2018 8:27:18 GMT
A few observations:
1. During the referendum the electorate was sold a fantasy version of Brexit, have your cake and eat it too, which was never going to happen. The proposed interim deal is a compromise.
2. The issue that swung the referendum (without which Remain would have won comfortably) is immigration. It delivers on that (for better or worse). It also takes us out of the common agricultural policy (hurrah!) and gives us back control of our fisheries.
3. I don't recall a single mention of the Irish border issue during the campaign on the mainland. It has shaped the proposal because (1) avoiding a hard border in Ireland requires Northern Ireland to remain within the customs union (at least for now); and (2) Theresa May called a snap election and lost her majority, to become hostage to the DUP. This meant we could not have a hard border in the Irish Sea, so mainland Britain must stay in the customs union too (at least for now).
4. The DUP hates the proposal but they are not (that I've heard so far) being very straight as to why. They hate it because it leaves a future government free to take mainland Britain out of the customs union, creating the hard border in the Irish Sea that they so fear. I hope that never happens.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 15, 2018 9:04:52 GMT
I suspect more resignations will follow and this deal is headed for the bin, together with the Conservatives chance of winning the next election.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 15, 2018 9:10:21 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 15, 2018 9:17:36 GMT
I could see it being 'JC', as I was thinking how Labour could play this so-called deal -abstain during the parliamentary vote on the deal, so it goes through, annoying many on the right (and no doubt the left) -call for/wait for an election -Conservatives chances of an overall win are in the toilet due to this deal (imo) -Labour win and can then begin moving back to being a full member of the EU (imo the only realistic proposal that meets their six tests)
Clearly, I haven't read 500+ pages of the deal, will wait for summaries in the papers, but I suspect UK will have a lot less sovereignty than people imagine.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Nov 15, 2018 10:54:38 GMT
This deal sucks and will surely never get through. I think Parliament will decline and Article 50 deadline will be extended. Who knows what will happen thereafter but one thing is certain, there will be nothing certain for a very long time.
I think we would be better off not extending A 50, keeping our £40b, declaring no tariffs on EU imports/services (they will reciprocate or the 27 will soon become 5), and start trading with the rest of the world immediately. And get on with life whilst the EU tailspins into its next disaster. Good luck with that European army too, more idealistic nonsense that will never be allowed to materialise.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 15, 2018 10:59:58 GMT
Now up to 4 resignations - Dominic Raab, Ester McVey, Shailesh Vara and Suella Braverman (have to admit, never heard of the last two).
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 15, 2018 11:38:49 GMT
This deal sucks and will surely never get through. I think Parliament will decline and Article 50 deadline will be extended. Who knows what will happen thereafter but one thing is certain, there will be nothing certain for a very long time. I think we would be better off not extending A 50, keeping our £40b, declaring no tariffs on EU imports/services (they will reciprocate or the 27 will soon become 5), and start trading with the rest of the world immediately. And get on with life whilst the EU tailspins into its next disaster. Good luck with that European army too, more idealistic nonsense that will never be allowed to materialise. A no deal Brexit would be a disaster; would not honour the Good Friday agreement unless we cut Northern Ireland adrift; and has no chance whatsoever of getting through Parliament. The only options for which there might be a majority in Parliament are: (1) remain (if there was a free vote, which is not going to happen), (2) another referendum, now that we know what a deal would entail, or (3) a deal that keeps us in the customs union. The latter is on offer now. Both hard line Brexiteers and hard line Remainers are looking to sink it. Once the Brexiteers realise there's no chance of getting what they want, I expect enough of them to reluctantly fall in line that Theresa May might get her majority. If they don't, either there will be another referendum (which they will probably lose) or there will be a general election (which the tories will probably lose), or both.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 15, 2018 11:48:48 GMT
This deal sucks and will surely never get through. I think Parliament will decline and Article 50 deadline will be extended. Who knows what will happen thereafter but one thing is certain, there will be nothing certain for a very long time. I think we would be better off not extending A 50, keeping our £40b, declaring no tariffs on EU imports/services (they will reciprocate or the 27 will soon become 5), and start trading with the rest of the world immediately. And get on with life whilst the EU tailspins into its next disaster. Good luck with that European army too, more idealistic nonsense that will never be allowed to materialise. A no deal Brexit would be a disaster; ..., and has no chance whatsoever of getting through Parliament. I've heard that before in the media, but don't understand it. If parliament fails to sign up to a 'proper' deal (of any form), by default we're then in 'no deal' territory. It doesn't have to be agreed, it's just the default.
As to 'another referendum, now that we know what a deal would entail'. I disagree with that. We know what this deal looks like, arranged by Remain supporting May and most of her cabinet.
Rather than see this as a Brexit vs Remain argument, I see this as the voters chose Leave, but the political classes (both sides) want to Remain. Ignoring voters is what leaves to non-politicians like Trump getting voted in.
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dandy
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Post by dandy on Nov 15, 2018 11:51:58 GMT
In a no-deal scenario, NI would not be forced to have any hard border - they would allow free movement and no tariffs. If however the EU force ROI to have a hard border then perhaps ROI should, like the UK, consider where their best interests truly lie. Any hard border will be as a result of EU/ROI policy, not UK policy. EU border requirement would not be tenable for very long (if at all) and would be hugely unpopular, undemocratic and frankly ridiculous. But, that's their choice not ours.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 15, 2018 12:24:42 GMT
In a no-deal scenario, NI would not be forced to have any hard border - they would allow free movement and no tariffs. If however the EU force ROI to have a hard border then perhaps ROI should, like the UK, consider where their best interests truly lie. Any hard border will be as a result of EU/ROI policy, not UK policy. EU border requirement would not be tenable for very long (if at all) and would be hugely unpopular, undemocratic and frankly ridiculous. But, that's their choice not ours. In a no deal scenario we would be fully outside the EU, with tariffs and no free movement. A hard border between Eire and Northern Ireland follows directly from that, otherwise it opens a back door for avoiding the restrictions on free movement, which would be hugely unpopular with the anti-immigration folk who swung the Brexit vote for Leave. Plus it would be open house for the criminal avoidance of tariffs which was, historically, a major source of funds for paramilitaries on both sides. Nobody should want that.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Nov 15, 2018 12:32:26 GMT
On another forum, regarding a new vote which would be a referendum against democracy
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 15, 2018 12:35:17 GMT
...Rather than see this as a Brexit vs Remain argument, I see this as the voters chose Leave, but the political classes (both sides) want to Remain... Yes, but there's no evidence that the electorate voted for a hard Brexit. No doubt some of them did, but the things that swung the vote narrowly in favour of Leave were (1) immigration, and (2) the false promises of a have-your-cake-and-eat-it Brexit. The proposed deal delivers on immigration and delivers on Brexit, albeit a softer Brexit than many (but still a minority) would want.
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