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Post by charlata on Nov 16, 2018 12:42:25 GMT
Parliament won't accept no deal. If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
The populist press wishing something to be true doesn't make it so. If there's no agreement on the divorce arrangement, the deadline will be extended until there is.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 16, 2018 12:44:56 GMT
If there's a general election Corbyn will get in and we're all ******.
EDIT: Which shouldn't be taken to mean that I am a fan of the current Tory lot. To my mind, in the main, they are remarkably unimpressive.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 12:46:37 GMT
Parliament won't accept no deal. If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
And because as soon as something catastrophic happens - who knows what that will be, perhaps someone dies because they couldn't get their medication in time (and it doesn't even have to be definitively due to the no deal, just plausibly so) - MPs know they will be blamed. No deal just won't happen, but it could get very messy in Parliament, mostly with Tory civil war.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 12:46:59 GMT
If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
The populist press wishing something to be true doesn't make it so. If there's no agreement on the divorce arrangement, the deadline will be extended until there is. Quite
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 12:48:24 GMT
If parliament fails to agree this deal (which seems likely) and any other 'proper' deal, why won't the default be a no deal even without explicit approval of MPs?
Because Parliament won' t allow no deal - huge majority against that. How they do it we will see if it comes to pass - could be via extending article 50, having a general election, having a referendum on the deal etc. General election could be 'interesting' if Labour stood on a "vote for us and we'll stay in the EU". After the mess the Conservatives have made of basically everything recently, I could see Labour getting in. BUT parties only tend to get around 10m votes. Can't see why brexiteers would 10m pro-Labour/EU votes over-riding 17m Leave votes.
As to referendum, someone on the TV today suggested a(nother) referendum with 3 choices: this deal, no deal or Remain. Unacceptable imo to have 2 Leave options (splitting the vote) vs 1 Remain option. Though another referendum would support what many like myself think - that the political classes won't/don't accept the Leave result and want to overturn it - I could see it happening, but would have to be Leave vs Remain.
I don't see the problem from the referendum being due to the narrow majority (52% vs 48%), but rather due to 52% of the vote being Leave whilst the great majority of all MPs are Remain. Political classes being out of touch with the electorate. I view MPs as our representatives, not our leaders, suspect they think they are our leaders.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 12:50:55 GMT
If there's a general election Corbyn will get in and we're all ******. EDIT: Which shouldn't be taken to mean that I am a fan of the current Tory lot. To my mind, in the main, they are remarkably unimpressive. Lot of people going to be disenfranchised -Conservatives (ignoring Brexit): not a single conservative idea among the lot of them -Labour: only idea the Left has ever had is "find somebody who works hard and has more money than you, take it off them to fund your lifestyle"
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 12:52:17 GMT
Because Parliament won' t allow no deal - huge majority against that. How they do it we will see if it comes to pass - could be via extending article 50, having a general election, having a referendum on the deal etc. General election could be 'interesting' if Labour stood on a "vote for us and we'll stay in the EU". After the mess the Conservatives have made of basically everything recently, I could see Labour getting in. BUT parties only tend to get around 10m votes. Can't see why brexiteers would 10m pro-Labour/EU votes over-riding 17m Leave votes.
As to referendum, someone on the TV today suggested a(nother) referendum with 3 choices: this deal, no deal or Remain. Unacceptable imo to have 2 Leave options (splitting the vote) vs 1 Remain option. Though another referendum would support what many like myself think - that the political classes won't/don't accept the Leave result and want to overturn it - I could see it happening, but would have to be Leave vs Remain.
I don't see the problem from the referendum being due to the narrow majority (52% vs 48%), but rather due to 52% of the vote being Leave whilst the great majority of all MPs are Remain. Political classes being out of touch with the electorate. I view MPs as our representatives, not our leaders, suspect they think they are our leaders.
OK, let's vote on May's deal v Remain. As democrats who want to make sure that the electorate supports what Leave means in reality now (rather than what it might have meant in theory in 2016), surely all Brexiteers would support that?
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Nov 16, 2018 13:03:45 GMT
Leave:
depart from, go away from, go from, withdraw from, retire from, take oneself off from, exit from, take one's leave of, pull out of, quit, be gone from, decamp from, disappear from, abandon, vacate, absent oneself from, evacuate;
Seems clear to me.
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 16, 2018 13:05:33 GMT
Ever since 18 I've always dutifully put my X somewhere on the ballot paper, and for GE/referenda arranged a postal vote if away at the time.
But (in a Lib / Lab marginal in inner London) I'll be tempted to spoil my paper in the next GE www.votenone.org.uk/
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 16, 2018 13:13:30 GMT
Hi I dont really understand any part of what you have written or what your points are other than that no deal apparently means a hard border is guaranteed - to which I would simply refer you to the Common Travel Area the rationale for which would inevitably be applied to goods and services also probably from the get go ... Fully aware of the CTA. My response was in relation to you saying there would never be anything other than tariff free movement of goods between NI/ROI. I have not commented on whether a "hard border" - whatever that is meant to mean - is guaranteed with or without a deal.
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Nov 16, 2018 13:24:58 GMT
Ever since 18 I've always dutifully put my X somewhere on the ballot paper, and for GE/referenda arranged a postal vote if away at the time.
But (in a Lib / Lab marginal in inner London) I'll be tempted to spoil my paper in the next GE www.votenone.org.uk/Seems principled but ultimately pointless. Are you not best finding an independent or voting for who most closely represents your views to show they have voters in that constituency and that they should canvas for more support next time.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Nov 16, 2018 13:28:02 GMT
The current situation is the clear culmination of:
- A leave campaign who felt no need to present a coherent plan, and no compulsion towards the truth. - A PM who quickly imposed ridiculous red lines - A government which invoked a time limited process without a plan, then wasted almost all of the two years available bickering with itself - A gang of brexiteers who, despite every opportunity, have been unable to decide what they want, or how they want it, or even to seriously engage with the process. Instead they've consistently preferred to huff and puff and lie, and then grandstand and quit.
It is remarkable that none of the resigning MPs have managed to propose any actual alternative to the current deal.
It is unsuprising that none of them have been willing to face up to the fact that the "sunlit upland" exists only in fantasy and that in reality you can't eat nostalgia (although perhaps you can drink plucky spirit?).
The deal is the only one on the table, unless you want a disastrous hard brexit, or no brexit. You only have to listen to the noises from the EU to see that there won't be another.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 13:34:40 GMT
I don't see the problem from the referendum being due to the narrow majority (52% vs 48%), but rather due to 52% of the vote being Leave whilst the great majority of all MPs are Remain. Political classes being out of touch with the electorate. I view MPs as our representatives, not our leaders, suspect they think they are our leaders.
OK, let's vote on May's deal v Remain. As democrats who want to make sure that the electorate supports what Leave means in reality now (rather than what it might have meant in theory in 2016), surely all Brexiteers would support that? Oh, sure, let's have a referendum on a May's Remainer deal (which is dead) vs Remain. Clearly Brexiteers aren't going to support that.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 13:37:54 GMT
Here's the reality of the EU which oddly enough Remoaners never mention:
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 16, 2018 13:52:36 GMT
Ever since 18 I've always dutifully put my X somewhere on the ballot paper, and for GE/referenda arranged a postal vote if away at the time.
But (in a Lib / Lab marginal in inner London) I'll be tempted to spoil my paper in the next GE www.votenone.org.uk/Seems principled but ultimately pointless. Are you not best finding an independent or voting for who most closely represents your views to show they have voters in that constituency and that they should canvas for more support next time. Despite moving around the country a fair bit, I've never lived in a constituency where my vote has made a jot of difference to the FPTP outcome, my preferred party normally many thousands of votes short (23,000 or 30,000 short last year for 1st and 2nd choices). However I have always voted for my preferred party so that my voice is heard in the national share of the vote calculation. The point being, that today in the autumn of 2018 I'm struggling to see any party that even remotely resembles my views, hence the none of the above, whilst still counting in the turnout figures.
Independents around here are typically advocating sharia law, or the freedom to practise FGM, or other outlandish causes that don't remotely reflect my views.
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