IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 13:59:08 GMT
OK, let's vote on May's deal v Remain. As democrats who want to make sure that the electorate supports what Leave means in reality now (rather than what it might have meant in theory in 2016), surely all Brexiteers would support that? Oh, sure, let's have a referendum on a May's Remainer deal (which is dead) vs Remain. Clearly Brexiteers aren't going to support that. Fine, so get a different deal v Remain. And check that's what people want. Simple democracy. Point is no one has so far been able to get a better deal and - I repeat - there will not be a no deal under any circumstances.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 14:00:41 GMT
Here's the reality of the EU which oddly enough Remoaners never mention:
that's the reality of what he wants, not what the EU 28 would agree. They won't. And anyway, Cameron go an opt out from ever closer union.
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 16, 2018 14:32:40 GMT
and - I repeat - there will not be a no deal under any circumstances. Hmm .... I wouldn't put money on that. If there is a 2nd referendum which is legislated for by the current conservative led government (irrespective of who the PM is), the question is quite likely to be deal vs no deal, and the outcome of that is not so clear cut (abstentions will play a major role in the outcome) I think it unlikely there would be a remain option in a referendum until after a GE with a manifesto commitment to such a referendum.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2018 14:44:52 GMT
I'm reminded of J. von Neumann's Impossibility Theorem (Mathematische Grundlagen der Quantenmechanik. Springer, Berlin, 1932. - available here)
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 16, 2018 15:15:28 GMT
I have a little inkling that despite all of the bluster from every corner about its impossibility, that Parliament might actually approve the deal on the table in the end. Not because it's a tremendous deal of course, but just because of the usual lobbying that'll be worked through in the next few weeks: Some voting for their jobs, some voting because they fear otherwise no brexit at all, some voting to avoid uncertainty. The DUP can apparently be swung, and if the case is good enough perhaps even a few more surprise Labour 'betrayers'. Perhaps the EU will dangle a couple of tiny carrots to appease the worst of whatever comes out of the discussion around the detail.
..I really hope not though, I'd like a ref.
Meanwhile, David Cameron sits in his Shepherd's hut pondering on what to title his memoirs. Git.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 15:17:16 GMT
and - I repeat - there will not be a no deal under any circumstances. Hmm .... I wouldn't put money on that. If there is a 2nd referendum which is legislated for by the current conservative led government (irrespective of who the PM is), the question is quite likely to be deal vs no deal, and the outcome of that is not so clear cut (abstentions will play a major role in the outcome) I think it unlikely there would be a remain option in a referendum until after a GE with a manifesto commitment to such a referendum. They might ask deal: yes/no, but they won't ask deal/leave with no deal. If people vote no to the deal, all options will be open afterwards, excepting leaving with no deal which won't be one of them.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Nov 16, 2018 15:26:52 GMT
I have a little inkling that despite all of the bluster from every corner about its impossibility, that Parliament might actually approve the deal on the table in the end. Not because it's a tremendous deal of course, but just because of the usual lobbying that'll be worked through in the next few weeks: Some voting for their jobs, some voting because they fear otherwise no brexit at all, some voting to avoid uncertainty. The DUP can apparently be swung, and if the case is good enough perhaps even a few more surprise Labour 'betrayers'. Perhaps the EU will dangle a couple of tiny carrots to appease the worst of whatever comes out of the discussion around the detail. ..I really hope not though, I'd like a ref. Meanwhile, David Cameron sits in his Shepherd's hut pondering on what to title his memoirs. Git. You're too kind to him
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 16, 2018 15:29:25 GMT
Meanwhile, David Cameron sits in his Shepherd's hut pondering on what to title his memoirs. Git. I'd say that is a very good suggestion. Have you sent it to him ?
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 16, 2018 21:32:39 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 16, 2018 23:21:42 GMT
All very well for Caroline Flint to ask that the government reach out to Labour, but Labour have their six tests and they know the only solution that the EU would offer that satisfy the six tests is 'stay in the EU'. In general, having cross party solutions to long term problems, e.g. the NHS, seems like a good idea, except politicians can't help but play party political games (can't really blame them, it's what they do).
I saw Lord Lilley (Conservative) on TV today. He believes May will survive any leadership challenge, but she'll then know at least 48 Tory MPs will be voting against her deal, which is therefore doomed. I agree with both points.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 17, 2018 0:01:52 GMT
Labour's six points are as facile as the original referendum. Still, that having been said, and mainly for (bleak) laughs, here's my very rough around the edges odds:- Chances of May surviving to Christmas 2018 - 30% Chances of the Conservatives surviving to Christmas 2018 - 55% Chances of the Conservatives surviving to May 2022 (the scheduled date according to the fixed term approach) without a "good deal" - 1% Chances of the Conservatives surviving to may 2022 (the scheduled date according to the fixed term approach) with a "good deal" - 65% Chances of a Labour government before mid 2019 - 70% Chances of a "no deal" Brexit - 55% Chances of a "Chequers" Brexit - 15% Chances of a simply remaining - 5% Chances of kicking the can down the road - 23% Chances of another referendum - 2% Note 1: I am very aware of how toxic the last Brexit thread we had on this forum became. If it looks like it's heading in that direction I will simply step back from the thread. Note 2: The guesstimates above are just that, guesstimates. I welcome informed, critical commentary, and would love to see other peoples' ideas about where we are at. Note 3: I haven't modelled this . I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the above was inconsistent / mutually exclusive, this is "post-pub" odds . EDIT: I guess it's worth adding that, and this is something that, as investors, we are all struggling with, that the above numbers are extremely sensitive to both time and events. Many things could happen tomorrow that could cause me to re-write the above from top to bottom. I might keep a record of how my thoughts / feelings / estimations change over time just because I will find it interesting to reflect on after the fact .
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Post by mrclondon on Nov 17, 2018 1:40:39 GMT
That's remarkably close to my thoughts registerme , the only one I'd disagree with as being way off is the survive to May 2022 with a good deal. IF the deal was one the DUP could be totally in agreement with, then if the government survives the next 12 months, it should go the distance with a PM change in 2020.
The one that many will disagree with is your 55% no deal as being too high, however I think the avid remainers are vastly underestimating the desire for this to be the solution amongst the people, in a similiar way to they underestimated the desire to leave. 55% is about right to my mind, with the caveat that "No-deal" is not a total cliff edge (that's project fear terrority IMO), but softened by half a dozen or so very specific and very limited agreements that are thrashed out during no deal contingency planning on both sides (e.g. airline operatons, visa arrangements for short duration travel, security & military esp for the SBAs in Cyprus etc, all of which are currently being discussed on both sides for the no deal contingency)
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 17, 2018 3:03:08 GMT
As you say registerme , it's so fluid at the moment that it feels like anything could happen and egg on face is easily possible with any set of predictions in short order. I personally think May will survive for the short/medium term, even if she needs to face down a confidence vote. As in my last post, I still have a hunch that the currently proposed deal will be voted through. I'd rate chances of a no-deal as significantly lower than you do, as mrc suggests I'd say being the Remoaner that I am . I don't believe that when push comes to shove that Parliament as a whole would vote for it to happen. I'm not so naive as to say it's not a possibility though, certainly is, and so much depends on the form of the question and the implicit/explicit consequences that are spelled out. Correspondingly I'd rate chances of another referendum and/or simply remaining as much higher than a combined 7%, I suppose for the inverse reason of the above. If I don't believe it's likely for Parliament to accept 'no deal', then there has to be another way. I know it's not a 'proof' by any means, but Betfair has the odds of a new referendum taking place before 2020 at 2.7 at the time of writing (or circa 37% in % terms), although this could be subject to the same remainer bias I'm afflicted by. Nonetheless, IMV, higher than 2%. One of my favourite blogs, Monevator, said shortly after the referendum (to paraphrase) that Brexit would be a big time-suck for Government and would be the background music for years to come. At the moment, that feels like rather an understatement. Even if this all ends up not going the way I'd like it to, I wish it'd happen an awful lot faster and cheaper than the years and millions it's taken and the years and millions more it seems it's going to take still from this point - zero chance of that!
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Post by charlata on Nov 17, 2018 8:44:08 GMT
The one that many will disagree with is your 55% no deal as being too high, however I think the avid remainers are vastly underestimating the desire for this to be the solution amongst the people
Au contraire. The remainers and the govt very much appreciate the popularity of 'no deal' among the anti-liberals. It is because the people might conceivably vote for 'no deal' that such a vote will never be sanctioned. Hence the chance of 'no deal' is zero.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Nov 17, 2018 9:53:00 GMT
Chances of a Labour government before mid 2019 - 70% I would agree that the chance of the next government being Labour is scarily high, though how high is anybody's guess.
Last election: Conservatives had no decent policies and hadn't attempted to deliver Brexit. Result: no majority Next election: Conservatives still seem to be lacking any policies (*) and whatever they deliver on Brexit won't satisfy their voter base and imo is unlikely to attract votes from Labour etc. Likely result: Labour win
(*) NHS - unreformed, social care - unfunded, welfare - universal credit rollout is a shambles, defence/education - underfunded, police - underfunded and crime rising, gender self-identity consultation - tick, done that, but not top of many peoples list. If you're on the right socially and/or economically, not sure who you're supposed to vote for now the Conservatives seem to have run out of ideas.
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