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Post by captainconfident on Mar 19, 2019 14:24:02 GMT
Who would lead the Conservative Party in a new election? Theresa May. What is the likelyhood of the Conservatives calling an election in these circumstances? 0% "Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election." www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547832 Dec 2018 Exactly. A leadership campaign comes first. May is the only person holding that party together. A leadership campaign risks tearing them into two. Until they dare staging this contest, there is no possibility of a General Election.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 19, 2019 15:58:35 GMT
Exactly. A leadership campaign comes first. May is the only person holding that party together. A leadership campaign risks tearing them into two. Until they dare staging this contest, there is no possibility of a General Election. Good point captainconfidentBut with a long extension there would be time for all that and it would be hard to see her surviving. Another reason she'll try for a short extension.
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 19, 2019 17:06:52 GMT
Exactly. A leadership campaign comes first. May is the only person holding that party together. A leadership campaign risks tearing them into two. Until they dare staging this contest, there is no possibility of a General Election. Good point captainconfident But with a long extension there would be time for all that and it would be hard to see her surviving. Another reason she'll try for a short extension. That's a good insight, IFISA. The minds of Prime Ministers are concentrated when they suspect they are close to the end, and the page of history is likely to have the word FAILURE on it. So yes, short extension for exactly the reason you suggest, and then try desperately to make the same vote on the same deal seem different. Funny thing of the day was the French minister saying that they had called their cat 'Brexit' because it miaouws at the door to go out, but when she opens it, it just stands there looking at her.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Mar 19, 2019 18:08:09 GMT
St Mary at Lambeth tower has a great view opposite the Houses of Parliament . ( Has anyone been up there?Public access through the Garden Museum) . Easy shot with a rocket launcher . Just posting this in case MI5 has overlooked it .
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Mar 19, 2019 18:31:00 GMT
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, told European leaders in 2016, as revealed by the French magazine Le Point: “I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU.”
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starfished
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Post by starfished on Mar 19, 2019 22:26:25 GMT
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, told European leaders in 2016, as revealed by the French magazine Le Point: “I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU.” They were always going to be tough. You may also say we overestimated our ability to negotiate with EU... On Michel Barnier, his reputation as a tough negotiator before brexit was well known. Who did we send as our A team? David Davis. But that is a separate point. What is at stake for the EU was always more than just trade / financial impact, there is a political/vision agenda at play. Some would argue that while other countries have had that debate and acknowledged it, we UK were sold the EU purely on trade grounds. Now by exiting we are having that debate. (I was recently reading about the fantastic Erasmus programme, intangible benefits like that had nothing to do with trade directly) It was (largely) acknowledged by both sides, that both would be poorer outside the EU. Both sides are of the view that is a price they are willing to pay for other more important factors. I cannot see our reasons are worthy but their reasons are perceived as them being "difficult"
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Post by beepbeepimajeep on Mar 19, 2019 23:03:40 GMT
Whatever your views on Brexit the reporting today by the BBC on John Bercow was absolutely shameful. Stating he had “stopped brexit”, demanding he explain himself to the population, chasing him down a street with a camera to make it look like he was dodging questions when he had gone to great lengths to explain already....To be honest it was disgusting and everyone involved should be ashamed of themselves. Make a (fair and correct) ruling that the prime minister doesn’t like and have that happen to you...
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 19, 2019 23:15:04 GMT
A rather lengthy blog from The Hansard Society concerning the implications and logistics for changing the 29th March date in the Withdrawal Act.
One of their conclusions states:
"Normally, from laying to making the SI, the draft affirmative procedure takes around six weeks.
However, given the steps outlined above, the process could be accelerated. We see no insuperable procedural obstacle to proceedings on the ‘exit day’ SI being completed by 29 March if the draft SI were laid, for example, on Friday 22 or Monday 25 March."
With the government in such chaos (and with the all important leader of the commons plus brexit secretary being pro-brexit) it will be interesting to see the efficiency with which this process is carried out (assuming EU agree a date by Monday at the latest - Robert Peston's twitter feed expresses some concerns that they may not ! )
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 19, 2019 23:51:18 GMT
A rather lengthy blog from The Hansard Society concerning the implications and logistics for changing the 29th March date in the Withdrawal Act.
One of their conclusions states:
"Normally, from laying to making the SI, the draft affirmative procedure takes around six weeks.
However, given the steps outlined above, the process could be accelerated. We see no insuperable procedural obstacle to proceedings on the ‘exit day’ SI being completed by 29 March if the draft SI were laid, for example, on Friday 22 or Monday 25 March."
With the government in such chaos (and with the all important leader of the commons plus brexit secretary being pro-brexit) it will be interesting to see the efficiency with which this process is carried out (assuming EU agree a date by Monday at the latest - Robert Peston's twitter feed expresses some concerns that they may not ! ) I would say Peston does rather more than express concerns: 'This is the greatest failure of our Parliamentary and government system that any of us alive have witnessed.'
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Post by dan1 on Mar 20, 2019 8:32:53 GMT
I wonder how history will judge the conduct of parliament in generations to come (i.e. generations not characterised by leave/remain)? From where we are right now it's hard for me not to see this as a low point over recent (100 years?) history.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Mar 20, 2019 9:22:19 GMT
I wonder how history will judge the conduct of parliament in generations to come (i.e. generations not characterised by leave/remain)? From where we are right now it's hard for me not to see this as a low point over recent (100 years?) history. In 100 years time, I envisage MV130 will finally pass through Parliament and my ashes will be finally scattered in 'The sunny uplands'. Joyfulness will be the order of the day.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 20, 2019 9:31:34 GMT
2nd Referendum Voting Intentions:
Remain Vs Govt. Deal
Remain: 61% Govt. Deal: 39%
Remain Vs No Deal
Remain: 57% No Deal: 43%
Via @yougov, 14-15 March.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 20, 2019 9:38:24 GMT
beepbeepimajeep I find Bercow's manner highly annoying, but I also admire him a great deal for not letting himself be pushed around by the government. He's done more to hold them to account / keep them on the parliamentary straight and narrow than the opposition have. Which is a pretty sorry state of affairs but there you go.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 20, 2019 9:51:58 GMT
2nd Referendum Voting Intentions: Remain Vs Govt. Deal Remain: 61% Govt. Deal: 39% Remain Vs No Deal Remain: 57% No Deal: 43% Via @yougov, 14-15 March. Although I can often take heart in such polls, I also have days (like today) wher looking at the same numbers I just struggle to believe that a very significant minority would rather have us leave with No Deal than Remain. I genuinely wonder what the polls will say when we've had a few days with only 'adequate' food. NB - that's not a request to have the reasons explained to me - I know!
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Post by captainconfident on Mar 20, 2019 10:33:02 GMT
If we do crash out next week, all the EU free trade deals that Dr Liam Fox's department has failed to roll over will lapse. So far he managed some islands, the Palestinian Authority and Switzerland. So all the UK companies dealing with South Korea, Mexico, Turkey etc will find their terms of trade immediately reset to some primitive previous arrangement with tariffs. It is unfortunate that like David Davis who forgot to take an agreed plan to Brussels and Chris Grayling, Dr. Liam Fox has been out of his depth from the day he took up his post.
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