macq
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Post by macq on Oct 14, 2019 11:09:26 GMT
Unless the information on my account is wrong (which is possible, it's happened before), the statistics quoted by bigfoot12 and the suggestions by treetophugger do not reflect the reality of my account. By 'default' I mean 'in collection', I do not mean late or overterm. If OC are claiming only 1 loan passed into collection in the last year, that is absolutely not what my account shows. I have several loans put into collection in the last year, and still there. I have no capital loss so far, just loss of income. would agree and they even call it collection (not checked but last month i had 7) so yes more then One passed in to collection but think its the usual trick with P2P of not using the word default unless they really have to
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macq
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Post by macq on Oct 14, 2019 14:33:16 GMT
Using my account the loans in collection have details in their drop down box with details such as - receivers have been appointed,our solicitors have been instructed,we are checking the repayment plan from the borrower before proceeding further etc The loans in late have messages saying 2 payments missed we are chasing,warning letter sent etc and loans in over term have the wording along the lines of the borrower is waiting for sale to go through etc (and i guess you could say both sections then move to collection if not solved) Not sure when the "D" word gets used(quicker by us i assume) but the blog section at the bottom of the home page give's their idea i guess
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Oct 14, 2019 16:54:06 GMT
"that is absolutely not what my account shows" if that's the case for the year 2018/19 I would make a formal complaint. Ask them for their Compliance Officer's details and contact them. Also notify the regulator. Why so aggressive? Why not just phone them up and ask them to explain a little to make sure you understand what is going on. Then if there is still some discrepancy ask for more information. If you go in that hard, you risk no one speaking to you and some lawyer type will try to answer your question with as little information as possible. I have always found the OC team (when I phoned them or emailed them from my account email) happy to explain things to me. Edit: BTW I have quite a few loans in collection, but nearly all entered in August or September 2019.
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liso
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Post by liso on Oct 14, 2019 17:20:54 GMT
octopusjoe Can you comment please on the discrepancy between your statistics which appear to show only 1 loan passed into collection in the past year, and lender's accounts which show several loans passed into collection over the same time period? An explanation would be appreciated.
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thedr
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Post by thedr on Nov 15, 2019 21:57:03 GMT
The statistics page reports 16 loans passed to debt collection in 2019
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macq
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Post by macq on Nov 16, 2019 9:54:02 GMT
think its pretty fair to say that p2p in general and probably more so with property that it shows higher non performing/late etc as the loan book matures and the loans have longer to run so possibly explains the change year on year (there could be exceptions) its at this point the strength or weakness of a platform is more noticeable in how it handles recoveries so interesting to see how they progress
P.s for what its worth on the title of this thread - i have been as high as approx 220 loans before now but in the early days a couple did make up about 6-8% each before repayment and being reinvested so it does seem to take a while at the start unless things have changed from 3 years back,but by the title i am guessing not
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Nov 22, 2019 12:12:24 GMT
I have just had a look at my loan book. I do not have a large holding in OC I have tried to actively managed my holding to increase diversification and limit my exposure I have just over 100 loans 7 are in collection 1 loan makes up 5% of my entire holding 7 loans make up 25% of my entire holding 22 loans make up 50% of my entire holding Now to me half my holding in just 22 loans seems way to concentrated, especially as I have taken steps for a long period of time to try to mitigate this. Unfortunately, whatever steps are taken to try to increase diversification, OC seem to think the best course of action is to invest a large sum into a single loan, and sometimes into an existing loan. Does anyone else have any figures to compare with? 3 figures investment (no funds added for 15months, interest reinvestment only)
64 loans 1 in collection 1 loan 4.7% 8 loans 25%
20 loans 50%
So I appear to be more concentrated than you
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upland
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Post by upland on Dec 29, 2019 8:51:05 GMT
I have had an account since the early days and OC has been reliable. I periodically review my p2p accounts with a view as to whether I should increase or reduce. The question of diversification here is quite large in my mind. In the early days with fewer loans available it could be bad. Some of the customer support was a little too gung ho about things I thought. Generally I like the setup and think Octopus is a firm with gravitas worth backing.
I still however have a few loans that are several times my average loan size which causes me discomfort as if one of these gets into problems its equivalent to 3% of the portfolio not performing which could put a dent in these (lowish) returns. I am surprised after these years that it is still there. I have about 250 loans now.
I notice that some of the actual loan sizes are larger meaning that the properties are unlikely to be 3 bed semis and possibly less liquid. Some of the terms are three years or so which is longer that I thought they would be. I also wonder about whether there is any internal connection between loans that may in effect be compromising the diversification. I have been topping up monthly in the hope that the diversification improves. I dont think that I would put a large lump sum in anymore which is a shame as I probably would if I didnt think it would all appear in one loan.
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thedr
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Post by thedr on Dec 29, 2019 10:10:15 GMT
When you look at lending risk as an investor, there are a couple of factors to consider
1. PD: probability of default 2. LGD: loss given default
Multiplying them together gives you an estimate of your exposure to potential loss. Eg a single loan could have a 0.1% probability of default and £500k loss given default. The "expected loss" would be £500.
When you mention a loan in your portfolio is 3% of your capital and could wipe out your returns in the event of a default, that's basically the LGD part. What's the probability of one of your loans going fully unpaid?
You could have many more loans, with none amounting to more than 1% of your capital. But if their PD was much higher than the loans you own today, your overall risk of loss could be higher.
In other words, number of loans and concentration of your biggest loans are part of risk mitigation, but they're not the whole picture when it comes to assessing your exposure to potential losses.
What's been your experience of Choice loans actually incurring losses, after all recovery efforts are complete?
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upland
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Post by upland on Dec 31, 2019 7:52:53 GMT
Generally my experience has been acceptable. Illiquid loans (money you cannot withdraw at once) exceeds yearly income but they seem to sort the problems out in the longer term. The assets underlying I feel should be well valued (unlike some other p2ps that could not do that).
I cannot see any pattern as to the size of loan and LTV , I suspect that my larger loans are a result of large loans at the time and these will not be 3 bed semis but a more complicated arrangement. I am not overly concerned its just that I would be happier if the loans were closer in size. I am not sure that I want to be the first one to be told that "that has never happen before". In a lifetime of investment it amazes me still how the unexpected often appears to inconvenience me again !
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macq
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Post by macq on Dec 31, 2019 12:21:03 GMT
Generally my experience has been acceptable. Illiquid loans (money you cannot withdraw at once) exceeds yearly income but they seem to sort the problems out in the longer term. The assets underlying I feel should be well valued (unlike some other p2ps that could not do that). I cannot see any pattern as to the size of loan and LTV , I suspect that my larger loans are a result of large loans at the time and these will not be 3 bed semis but a more complicated arrangement. I am not overly concerned its just that I would be happier if the loans were closer in size. I am not sure that I want to be the first one to be told that "that has never happen before". In a lifetime of investment it amazes me still how the unexpected often appears to inconvenience me again ! you mention in a previous post that you are surprised at still having loans running after 3 years - not sure if you have looked at their statistics page but they say the average term is 5.9 years which might help Do think it would be better if OC were to put in their info within the details tab on the account page with regards late/defaults/overdue (which at least they give) the current LTV rather then the initial LTV which would be probably less of a worry most of the time especially if its One of your larger holdings
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 31, 2019 13:09:44 GMT
Generally my experience has been acceptable. Illiquid loans (money you cannot withdraw at once) exceeds yearly income but they seem to sort the problems out in the longer term. The assets underlying I feel should be well valued (unlike some other p2ps that could not do that). I cannot see any pattern as to the size of loan and LTV , I suspect that my larger loans are a result of large loans at the time and these will not be 3 bed semis but a more complicated arrangement. I am not overly concerned its just that I would be happier if the loans were closer in size. I am not sure that I want to be the first one to be told that "that has never happen before". In a lifetime of investment it amazes me still how the unexpected often appears to inconvenience me again ! you mention in a previous post that you are surprised at still having loans running after 3 years - not sure if you have looked at their statistics page but they say the average term is 5.9 years which might help Do think it would be better if OC were to put in their info within the details tab on the account page with regards late/defaults/overdue (which at least they give) the current LTV rather then the initial LTV which would be probably less of a worry most of the time especially if its One of your larger holdings I have sold out of most of my holding, but would agree that OC seem to be pretty experienced and know what they are doing. My first big default was a significant part of my portfolio, but it was indeed a 3 bed semi. It was recovered including all interest. They are good if you phone up, they have more information and they can indicate possible timeframes for recovery.
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