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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2018 21:04:57 GMT
hazellend I've watched all these videos and for the most part couldn't agree more. I have no managed porfolios and strive to keep costs down. The only part I struggle with is investing proportionality to the MSCIs market capitalization. Yes it's supposedly the % breakdown of the world's markets but as Japan reached 44% at one point I'm not sure I trust it entirely. I've also read a few articles saying it actually flies in the face of diversification and is tantamount to gambling on the US stock market outperforming all others. Just some food for thought and discussion 😉
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 20, 2018 21:28:07 GMT
hazellend I've watched all these videos and for the most part couldn't agree more. I have no managed porfolios and strive to keep costs down. The only part I struggle with is investing proportionality to the MSCIs market capitalization. Yes it's supposedly the % breakdown of the world's markets but as Japan reached 44% at one point I'm not sure I trust it entirely. I've also read a few articles saying it actually flies in the face of diversification and is tantamount to gambling on the US stock market outperforming all others. Just some food for thought and discussion 😉 I don’t think I have any edge over the market so I don’t try. My equity holding value has taken a huge hit recently, down > 50k but I’m not selling for at least 15 years so I’m just buying more. Usually I do a net worth calculation early jan but I think I’ll skip it this year! I think your strategy is pretty similar to mine, and hope you get some decent additional return
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james100
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Post by james100 on Dec 21, 2018 11:46:56 GMT
<snip> I've also read a few articles saying it actually flies in the face of diversification and is tantamount to gambling on the US stock market outperforming all others. Just some food for thought and discussion 😉 Depends a bit on your personal slant on the definition of diversification IMHO. Current market cap weighting (for VWRL/D covering about 90% of global investables) is over 35% in Financials and Tech right now (7% in just 4 companies) which, if I were to construct a self-select portfolio (which I also have) would be a huge no. Much more of an issue that US-weighting...except the GBPUSD impact. I've just done a 5-figure top up today though, so clearly not too negative about it!
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Post by misterp2p on Dec 24, 2018 12:58:53 GMT
After years of index trackers I cashed out and have restarted this year with 2 Vanguard funds, VEVE and VFEM. Between them that basically covers everything as I see it equity wise. I aim for a long term split of 90/10. I drip feed monthly into VEVE and throw lumps at them when they dip below my average unit cost. Today I've thrown a lump at VEVE as its at a yearly low, and I'm also as a consequence closer to 70/30 in the split at present. Low fees, long term view, and all bases covered, I can't be arsked to complicate things further. The money I'm bringing out of P2P is also heading for these funds
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Dec 24, 2018 14:15:42 GMT
After years of index trackers I cashed out and have restarted this year with 2 Vanguard funds, VEVE and VFEM. Between them that basically covers everything as I see it equity wise. I aim for a long term split of 90/10. I drip feed monthly into VEVE and throw lumps at them when they dip below my average unit cost. Today I've thrown a lump at VEVE as its at a yearly low, and I'm also as a consequence closer to 70/30 in the split at present. Low fees, long term view, and all bases covered, I can't be arsked to complicate things further. The money I'm bringing out of P2P is also heading for these funds I’m all in so no funds to invest at the moment. Just need to wait for my P2P lumps and monthly pay! I hope to be enticed back to P2P in the future but there hasn’t been anything I like for 3 - 6 months and I am liking the equity market a lot at the moment
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damar
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Post by damar on Dec 28, 2018 19:54:18 GMT
I too am trying to exit, I have about 5k left in lendy and some small change in funding secure.
I have one rental property left, but with the buffoons not allowing us to offset costs against income (section 24) and more and more legislation coming into effect, the profit there is reduced greatly, so I have been selling them off as tenancies ended.
I will still probably keep some cash in property, but more around refurbs and conversion rather than rental.
glad I never got involved with crypto currencies, just need to look out for something else, maybe gold until Brexit is over.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 29, 2018 1:17:39 GMT
I too am trying to exit, I have about 5k left in lendy and some small change in funding secure. I have one rental property left, but with the buffoons not allowing us to offset costs against income (section 24) and more and more legislation coming into effect, the profit there is reduced greatly, so I have been selling them off as tenancies ended. I will still probably keep some cash in property, but more around refurbs and conversion rather than rental. glad I never got involved with crypto currencies, just need to look out for something else, maybe gold until Brexit is over. Gold is also volatile. Markets over the last 3-5 years have been good to me and overall if invested in funds of funds etc. Over time you will always make money. Overall my money in S&S , bonds etc managed by one of the big boys will be down about 5% this year. Luckily I will not need to touch any of those investments so will just leave to recover. My P2P which I manage aggressively is up 15% slightly less invested in P2P so overall I am still getting a very reasonable return non-taxable from those two income streams. We complain (justifiably) about the increased illiquidity of P2P but the price of liquidity in the stock market comes at the price of having to accept lower return at the time of widrawal. The eventual repayment/recovery in P2P should always be in profit if invested prudently and as in S&S well diversified and probably in a shorter overall time than the market recovery.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Dec 30, 2018 10:01:48 GMT
We complain (justifiably) about the increased illiquidity of P2P but the price of liquidity in the stock market comes at the price of having to accept lower return at the time of widrawal. It isn't necessarily a lower return for increased liquidity. Anyone buying gilts several years could sell them for a much better than expected return very easily, unlike on many P2P platforms at the time which charge a fee for early exit even if rates have fallen. The liquidity comes at the cost of accepting the prevailing market price for better or worse
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 30, 2018 21:42:54 GMT
We complain (justifiably) about the increased illiquidity of P2P but the price of liquidity in the stock market comes at the price of having to accept lower return at the time of widrawal. It isn't necessarily a lower return for increased liquidity. Anyone buying gilts several years could sell them for a much better than expected return very easily, unlike on many P2P platforms at the time which charge a fee for early exit even if rates have fallen. The liquidity comes at the cost of accepting the prevailing market price for better or worse Currently most things are worse, much worse . I pity anyone needing to cash in stock marked investments. This is a buying oppertunity. Sombody wins when others loose. The Way of the world !!!
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Post by lotus_eater on Jan 5, 2019 17:41:54 GMT
Vanguard All World ETF is down some 10% over the last 3 months (eating what I gained in p2p), down 2% over the last year, and made "only" 10% or so annualised over the last 5 years. Its future is uncertain given that the US bull-market is over (is it?). It does not pay more and is also not more secure than some p2p sites. I have zero interest in short term market movements. I will be holding the All World for another 15 years minimum but probably 30 -50 years and beyond as my offspring inherit. I wish I had your reserve. The VAW hasn't been through a major crisis yet. Too volatile on it's own for my tummy. You can get almost the same results with a carefully selected mix of assets without the drawdown & volatility. Not for everyone but helps me sleep at night :-) Red is VAW, blue is mix of assets.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 5, 2019 17:56:42 GMT
I have zero interest in short term market movements. I will be holding the All World for another 15 years minimum but probably 30 -50 years and beyond as my offspring inherit. I wish I had your reserve. The VAW hasn't been through a major crisis yet. Too volatile on it's own for my tummy. You can get almost the same results with a carefully selected mix of assets without the drawdown & volatility. Not for everyone but helps me sleep at night :-) Red is VAW, blue is mix of assets.  Problem is the starting and finishing date in your graph are probably cherry picking a period of underperformance. If you ended 3 months earlier it might look different. Equities are more volatile for sure though. The most important thing is to chose a sensible long term strategy that you can stick to no matter what happens.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 5, 2019 18:02:58 GMT
Nice work 10% annulised is still 50% above current annuity rates and you stilll have access to all you funds even if they are not as much.
Will leave as much as I can in Stock market and wait it out. Will live on current 15% P2P Tax free returns and may even get RIO interest only lifetime mortgage and enjoy the cash, Sod the Beneficiaries
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Post by lotus_eater on Jan 5, 2019 18:08:02 GMT
I wish I had your reserve. The VAW hasn't been through a major crisis yet. Too volatile on it's own for my tummy. You can get almost the same results with a carefully selected mix of assets without the drawdown & volatility. Not for everyone but helps me sleep at night :-) Red is VAW, blue is mix of assets. Problem is the starting and finishing date in your graph are probably cherry picking a period of underperformance. If you ended 3 months earlier it might look different. Equities are more volatile for sure though. The most important thing is to chose a sensible long term strategy that you can stick to no matter what happens. Ok then, try this. This is using VTI (total stock market) which is actually less volatile than VAW. This is only because VAW doesn't have enough data to backtest. Doesn't bode well to be all in stocks IMHO. Agreed we have to stick with a long term strategy whatever though. It's all good. Only trying to show alternatives. There are so many people that are too scared of the markets to get in and I think they are missing out. Red is VTI, blue is mix of assets. I would be really interested to hear what others think on the above asset allocation. Which would you choose?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 5, 2019 20:37:31 GMT
Nice work 10% annulised is still 50% above current annuity rates and you stilll have access to all you funds even if they are not as much.
Will leave as much as I can in Stock market and wait it out. Will live on current 15% P2P Tax free returns and may even get RIO interest only lifetime mortgage and enjoy the cash, Sod the Beneficiaries
Presumably your 15% returns would be even higher if you didn't have 100K in Lendy dragging you down earning £25 a month? (0.3% p.a.) And even higher again if you didn't have £26k locked up in Collateral. (0.0% p.a) And even if we exclude those, your Welendus returns of " No loss 12% return APR" need some dragging up to hit the magic 15% overall. Your 5% FC return certainly doesn't help, either. So I suppose that leaves FS doing the heavy lifting for you? Here apparently you're earning 15-18% overall gains despite "some overall loss in a few loans". Even fully accepting that you do earn such a return, I still don't see how that takes you to an overall 15% return in your portfolio - unless you have 95% of your money in FS, or unless you are assuming a full return of capital and interest in your Lendy/Collateral investments? Re: those juicy FS returns, you tell us that your strategy is to diversify and buy loans at 1% discount on the SM, trade, rinse and repeat etc. Whilst certainly possible in some cases at small volumes, my problem with this concept is that I know from experience that it does not scale. Yes you can buy £500 of a decent loan at a good discount and sell it on the same day now and again, but £5-10k consistently day-in day-out whilst being heavily diversified? No way, jose. Even if you could always buy at such volumes, only good fortune will allow you to sell out again if already trading at max discount, again especially if trying this on with £5k-£10k lumps. You're going to end up with an awful lot of 'interest accruing' in that game. I suspect (one of) the inherent flaws in your strategy revolves around your stated assumption: "all on track to be resolved within the 24 month limit that I give every loan". That is a very generous assumption. Whilst some may be 'resolved', some also won't, and those that are 'resolved' may be returned to you with a slither of your original capital, and zero of the accrued interest. The supposed "20%" return you earn from buying a loan with 35 days remaining at -1% quickly dips as months roll by, and in many cases with FS, eventually turns negative upon conclusion. TLDR; I just don't believe in you, Godanubis Edit: FWIW, I would find a more believable way to earn 17% p.a. to be a BH investing £100k a pop highly selectively in certain loans on the PM with the generous bonus rates, and not experiencing a single failed loan. A strategy I'm sure a few have employed, requiring of course deep pockets and the abandonment of the red lines of diversification. And a damn good chunk of luck.
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Post by dan1 on Jan 5, 2019 21:58:49 GMT
<snip> Edit: FWIW, I would find a more believable way to earn 17% p.a. to be a BH investing £100k a pop highly selectively in certain loans on the PM with the generous bonus rates, and not experiencing a single failed loan. A strategy I'm sure a few have employed, requiring of course deep pockets and the abandonment of the red lines of diversification. And a damn good chunk of luck. At least some of the BHs are earning well in excess of the quoted rates inc bonus rates. The cinema paid out average rates of 18.9% and 18.3% on the original loan and its renewal (see p2pindependentforum.com/post/286690/thread). You invest £25 you earn 13%, you invest £100k+ you earn 20% perhaps, puts risk-adjusted returns in context - it really weights the odds in favour of BHs.
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