Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Jan 2, 2019 12:16:50 GMT
6.7 as an average, blimey that is good from what I've seen over the last month and a bit. Don't worry aju, you did not miss anything by not monitoring closely! Nobody investing in the last month or two has got rates anything like 6.7% on the 5 Year market: no matter how closely you watch, nothing above the very low 6%'s has been available. All that ceejay's average means is that he did a lot of investing when rates were higher, e.g., perhaps 3 or 4 months ago.
My investment in RS also fluctuates on this basis. When rates are 6% and below, I sit back and withdraw proceeds; when they're above 6%, I feed money back in (slowly for the low 6%'s, and considerably faster if they go above 6.5%).
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 12:43:39 GMT
6.7 as an average, blimey that is good from what I've seen over the last month and a bit. Don't worry aju , you did not miss anything by not monitoring closely! Nobody investing in the last month or two has got rates anything like 6.7% on the 5 Year market: no matter how closely you watch, nothing above the very low 6%'s has been available. All that ceejay 's average means is that he did a lot of investing when rates were higher, e.g., perhaps 3 or 4 months ago.
My investment in RS also fluctuates on this basis. When rates are 6% and below, I sit back and withdraw proceeds; when they're above 6%, I feed money back in (slowly for the low 6%'s, and considerably faster if they go above 6.5%).
Thanks for that Stonk, I am new and have a couple of my £10 stabs, small enough to not be missed but valid enough to notice an uplift. I am seeing some patterns as ceejay suggest. The data I pulled though was just MR values and I then tried to pattern it, by DOW, MTH, Week etc, but as they suggest its not really showing much as it's not where I am targeting. One thing I am doing at the moment is watching my £10 loans to see when the hit occurs by value left in a market on the day, someone suggested this but it took me a while to figure out how.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 12:58:25 GMT
... What do you mean about the full market I'm only in the 5yr, is there something I should be looking at in the other markets too. My screens have them on but i'm not really watching them closely.
By "full market" I simply meant the list of offers that you see if you click "view full market", which I think you are already looking at.
I don't think this is rocket science: you need to pick rates that you are happy (careful choice of word there) with, and then don't accept anything less. If they're not available, go elsewhere (though I might be prepared to park a bit in Rolling for a short time if I thought that the longer rates might rise in the next month or so). Never, ever accept "Market Rate". I mostly have Auto-invest turned off on all markets, though if I will be away for a while then I will turn it on with a moderately optimistic level which either catches or it doesn't.
If you watch for long enough, I think you will spot patterns of rate changes - by time, day, week, month - although there is of course plenty of noise on top of that. Bear in mind that RS's graphs of "Market Rate" are of only limited value if you never buy at Market Rate - what really matters is the best rate that was available on a given day, which may be very different from the MR.
Thanks ceejay, its an enormous relief to me that it may not be rocket science as I was never that good with fireworks!. I'm thinking my levels are way lower than yours but I get what you mean and as I have said elsewhere i'm largely trying to beat inflation so 6.0% does it for me even if I don't relend. I did mess up on day one and lent at MR but thankfully that was at 5.9% so I was lucky there.
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mickj
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Post by mickj on Jan 2, 2019 19:00:03 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now
5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 19:31:24 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now 5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year Thats curious on my markets screen @ 19:26 uk time, my markets screen is reporting - I bumped it to reload ROLLING 2.1% at 19:14 1 YEAR 5.1% at 16:12 5 YEAR INCOME 5.8% at 19:21 I'm guessing you saw the "5.1 at 16:15" relative to your local time rather than what the markets screen reports unless ratesetter's clock is going backwards. The 5 year has dropped since the peak but before I reloaded the screen it said 5.9% but I didn't get the time of it. My 6.1% is sitting @ 283.4k thats down quite a bit from midnight last night (850k).
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Post by df on Jan 2, 2019 19:37:04 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now 5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year Looking at it now: 5 year - lender's queue starting from 5.8%, no "borrowers" 1 year - lender's queue starting from 3.2%, no "borrowers" Rolling - you can lend at 2.0%, but if you are prepared to wait in £1,248,486.49 queue you may have a chance to lend at 2.1%. Great!
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 19:40:49 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now 5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year Looking at it now: 5 year - lender's queue starting from 5.8%, no "borrowers" 1 year - lender's queue starting from 3.2%, no "borrowers" Rolling - you can lend at 2.0%, but if you are prepared to wait in £1,248,486.49 queue you may have a chance to lend at 2.1%. Great! The 5 year queue must have pumped something in for the last hit of 5.8% @ 19:21 also I can see some people dropping their levels as the 5y on my 6.1 is increasing in 2/3k blocks back up to 297k now.
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Post by df on Jan 2, 2019 19:54:56 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now 5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year Thats curious on my markets screen @ 19:26 uk time, my markets screen is reporting - I bumped it to reload ROLLING 2.1% at 19:14 1 YEAR 5.1% at 16:12 5 YEAR INCOME 5.8% at 19:21 I'm guessing you saw the "5.1 at 16:15" relative to your local time rather than what the markets screen reports unless ratesetter's clock is going backwards. The 5 year has dropped since the peak but before I reloaded the screen it said 5.9% but I didn't get the time of it. My 6.1% is sitting @ 283.4k thats down quite a bit from midnight last night (873k). I got fooled by "last matched rates" once. Thought it is the rate you can go for, transferred money, put an order at that rate and nothing happened - then realised that I have to click on the grey box to see the real picture.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 20:19:01 GMT
Thats curious on my markets screen @ 19:26 uk time, my markets screen is reporting - I bumped it to reload ROLLING 2.1% at 19:14 1 YEAR 5.1% at 16:12 5 YEAR INCOME 5.8% at 19:21 I'm guessing you saw the "5.1 at 16:15" relative to your local time rather than what the markets screen reports unless ratesetter's clock is going backwards. The 5 year has dropped since the peak but before I reloaded the screen it said 5.9% but I didn't get the time of it. My 6.1% is sitting @ 283.4k thats down quite a bit from midnight last night (873k). I got fooled by "last matched rates" once. Thought it is the rate you can go for, transferred money, put an order at that rate and nothing happened - then realised that I have to click on the grey box to see the real picture. That's interesting, i didn't realise that was another way to get to my unmatched money detail. I usually drop the amount I have set it to into a separate screen and then make it small enough to sit on the left side of the screen and then stack my auto reloader at one minute intervals and watch it creep up and down. Not that interesting but as its in the corner of my eye I can pick up subtle changes and can glance at it to see whats happening. Ratesetter having so many different ways to skin a cat is a sign of inconsistent design in my eyes but to be honest they are not alone if my experience of Zopa is anything to go by.
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Post by df on Jan 2, 2019 20:30:32 GMT
Looking at it now: 5 year - lender's queue starting from 5.8%, no "borrowers" 1 year - lender's queue starting from 3.2%, no "borrowers" Rolling - you can lend at 2.0%, but if you are prepared to wait in £1,248,486.49 queue you may have a chance to lend at 2.1%. Great! The 5 year queue must have pumped something in for the last hit of 5.8% @ 19:21 also I can see some people dropping their levels as the 5y on my 6.1 is increasing in 2/3k blocks back up to 297k now. Now it looks like one can get 6.0% tonight if put a new order. 6.1% is possible if you are not at the back of the queue. I'm not after more RS loans today, but when I am, I usually go down 0.1% or more if it ensures immediate investment.
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Post by df on Jan 2, 2019 21:20:03 GMT
I got fooled by "last matched rates" once. Thought it is the rate you can go for, transferred money, put an order at that rate and nothing happened - then realised that I have to click on the grey box to see the real picture. That's interesting, i didn't realise that was another way to get to my unmatched money detail. I usually drop the amount I have set it to into a separate screen and then make it small enough to sit on the left side of the screen and then stack my auto reloader at one minute intervals and watch it creep up and down. Not that interesting but as its in the corner of my eye I can pick up subtle changes and can glance at it to see whats happening. Ratesetter having so many different ways to skin a cat is a sign of inconsistent design in my eyes but to be honest they are not alone if my experience of Zopa is anything to go by.I'm on receiving side of Zopa (withdrawing repayments and not investing in new non-PF products), don't have any recent Zopa experience, but from what I remember Zopa rates were fairly stable for each product. RS model is much more crafty. As you mentioned this, I did wonder if the model is designed to benefit from less informed retail investors to keep the business going? At some point Rolling was down to 1.7% (or may be even lower as I don't watch RS market regularly)... there must be many investors who chuck some cash in, set reinvestments @market rate and forget about it. I also noticed that repayments/reinvestments usually happen in the morning when the rates are at their lowest.
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mjc
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Post by mjc on Jan 2, 2019 22:44:10 GMT
5.1% matched at 16.15 this afternoon - anyone see that? back to 3.2/3.4 now 5.9/6.0 matching now in 5 year Looking at it now: 5 year - lender's queue starting from 5.8%, no "borrowers" 1 year - lender's queue starting from 3.2%, no "borrowers" Rolling - you can lend at 2.0%, but if you are prepared to wait in £1,248,486.49 queue you may have a chance to lend at 2.1%. Great! I’m still trying to figure which period and % to plumb for (when my ISA xfer finally comes through from FS). But isn’t it far easier to get 5.1% and no drag and 30 day (or less by routine notices) with AC? Or is it perceived to be far safer at RS?
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 2, 2019 23:16:06 GMT
The 5 year queue must have pumped something in for the last hit of 5.8% @ 19:21 also I can see some people dropping their levels as the 5y on my 6.1 is increasing in 2/3k blocks back up to 297k now. Now it looks like one can get 6.0% tonight if put a new order. 6.1% is possible if you are not at the back of the queue. I'm not after more RS loans today, but when I am, I usually go down 0.1% or more if it ensures immediate investment. Well I have 6.1 in but its not bitten and its now sitting with 1.1M before it will bite so not expecting it to work at present the 6.0% is sitting with 1.1M in front of any new punters so I wouldn't be that hopeful of a Bite in that one either. At present i'd be surprised if anyone gets 5.8& unless things pick up again overnight the last bite was 5.4% @23.09. Of course I am new to this malarkey so i'm happy to be proven wrong. Tomorrow is another day....
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Post by df on Jan 2, 2019 23:24:31 GMT
Looking at it now: 5 year - lender's queue starting from 5.8%, no "borrowers" 1 year - lender's queue starting from 3.2%, no "borrowers" Rolling - you can lend at 2.0%, but if you are prepared to wait in £1,248,486.49 queue you may have a chance to lend at 2.1%. Great! I’m still trying to figure which period and % to plumb for (when my ISA xfer finally comes through from FS). But isn’t it far easier to get 5.1% and no drag and 30 day (or less by routine notices) with AC? Or is it perceived to be far safer at RS? Absolutely, as well as 5.3% with GS. I use RS as part of diversified portfolio, perhaps it is a little bit safer because of it's size, but otherwise the risk levels are very similar (in my view).
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robski
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Post by robski on Jan 3, 2019 9:17:00 GMT
Yesterday messed up a lot on RS They were very late on starting the repayment cycle and it was the start of the month cycle, so all the 1st and 2nd needed to be processed. What happen was what pretty much always happens in this scenario, the rates available during the day are higher, as there is no repayment dump at "market rate", added to the lender queue, the rates can go higher based on people who manually add theirs through the day. Then once RS catch up and apply the repayment auto reinvestment it creates a big chunk late in the day with limited demand. Its confirmation of what goes up must come down If you are able to monitor on Mondays this can often happen, particularly at the start of the month which is pretty much the perfect storm of RS having a lot of processing to do. I would expect it to take a couple of days to settle back down. Todays repayments were completed before I even logged on at 6.30am! Its hard to specifically predict the rates since you have to cover annual cycle (higher borrowing in Jan we are told, vs other slower months), the monthly cycle (Ie when does end of the month fall) and weekly cycle, ie when its Monday.
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