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Post by Mr Smith on Jun 14, 2019 9:04:14 GMT
Has it ? Given some of the times reported it looks quite expotential to me !! Dec Jan March May June 1 3 7 30 60 mr_Smith - see the graph in my earlier post which uses the data criston has kindly posted on post #1 in this thread:
It's hard to argue with the graph though a couple of shorter selling times in Jan/Feb would bring the 1st part of it right down, are you able to mark the actual data points with an X ?
You also need to factor in % sold to make it meaningful.
They could be selling 100% of loans in 60 days, or be selling 1% in 60 days.
A graph of how long it takes people to sell completely would be most useful.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Jun 14, 2019 11:26:57 GMT
Based on the date of the sell request, I'd call it fairly linear since the start of 2019. If you plot by sale date, then it will look worse.
EDIT: Sorry for duplicating. I just read someone has already posted a graph like this in another thread. EDIT: Turns out it's this thread a few days ago. Friday feeling. I must keep up!
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criston
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Post by criston on Jun 14, 2019 11:36:03 GMT
Mr Smith; I am unsure if you are aware of the first post on page 1 of this thread , which should answer most of your questions regarding time frame etc.
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p2pete
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Post by p2pete on Jun 14, 2019 12:08:22 GMT
You need to take this selling/default issue in the context of what is currently going on in the UK. Debt at all time highs, low wages, unsustainable cost of living, brexit, Political turmoil, Housing market grinding to a half, London house prices falling, higher US interest rates, QE stopped. Bear in mind that other black box platforms such as RS and LW don't have any selling issues. In fact they have the opposite problem - they have queues to get invested since the start of the new financial year. And yes, I have asked FC and they admit that the 3 points I made earlier are exactly how the system works and it is intentional. Here's an article posted earlier that you may have missed: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/funding-circle-falls-into-square-hole-2c76q8zx8The company said the increased waiting times were not the result of a lack of demand from investors. A new approach attempts to ensure new customers are not matched with an unfair proportion of old loans that customers are seeking to sell, which may include an underperforming cohort.
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Jun 14, 2019 15:35:43 GMT
Agree with all of that. Happy to let my investment run down over 5 years. I will keep relisting to sell and move money out as and when it appears in my holding account. Have to say, you were a brave man putting in a 7 figure sum but at 6% return and a good exit strategy it was a good investment. Well done. Some win, many lose. I suspect bg did rather better than 6%. I too am all but out of FC (just recoveries trickling in for the last 18 months or so). My FC annualised return still reads 15% and always will 🙂
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Post by jaycee on Jun 14, 2019 16:58:16 GMT
The company said the increased waiting times were not the result of a lack of demand from investors. A new approach attempts to ensure new customers are not matched with an unfair proportion of old loans that customers are seeking to sell, which may include an underperforming cohort. I don't see how this stacks up. Since you can't sell loans that are in any way looking iffy, hoovering up a large proportion of old (currently performing) loans is surely more desirable than going to the new loan pick'n'mix for a batch of loans which might or might not turn out to be duds in short order.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jun 14, 2019 17:32:52 GMT
It's pure Fairly Confused 'spin speak', trying to find a justification which sounds like there may be a glimmer of customer focus in there somewhere. After 7+ years of it, I now know how to unspin it, back to 'this is best for our bottom line'.
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Post by nooneere on Jun 14, 2019 17:36:41 GMT
The company said the increased waiting times were not the result of a lack of demand from investors. A new approach attempts to ensure new customers are not matched with an unfair proportion of old loans that customers are seeking to sell, which may include an underperforming cohort. I don't see how this stacks up. Since you can't sell loans that are in any way looking iffy, hoovering up a large proportion of old (currently performing) loans is surely more desirable than going to the new loan pick'n'mix for a batch of loans which might or might not turn out to be duds in short order. I agree, this seems fishy to me. It implies FC know they have an "underperforming cohort" because... why? Because they know they relaxed their credit analysis over a certain period? So people struggling to sell at the moment can expect more defaults on their non-sold loans? The only potential positive I can see is that it also implies they have since tightened up the DD and expect newer loans to perform better. Maybe.
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Jun 14, 2019 18:50:33 GMT
The only potential positive I can see is that it also implies they have since tightened up the DD and expect newer loans to perform better. Maybe. Hahahahahahaha. Best joke of the day!
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Post by jaycee on Jun 14, 2019 19:44:25 GMT
I don't see how this stacks up. Since you can't sell loans that are in any way looking iffy, hoovering up a large proportion of old (currently performing) loans is surely more desirable than going to the new loan pick'n'mix for a batch of loans which might or might not turn out to be duds in short order. I agree, this seems fishy to me. It implies FC know they have an "underperforming cohort" because... why? Outstanding property loans? But that could surely be managed directly rather than by cohort.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jun 14, 2019 19:45:16 GMT
I am just so sorry that I messed things up for FC and everyone else by investing in an 'underperforming cohort'. I deserve to be punished and I should not be allowed to take my money out, even though they have plenty. Better that new lenders are uninvested rather than they should buy the few loans which I have that are almost bound to fail.
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Post by marlin on Jun 14, 2019 21:52:07 GMT
While I took on and accepted risk in the form of "managed risk," reading this horror story, I do not feel that Funding Circle's behaviour lives up to this. Rather I feel that I have been cynically exploited.
For comparison, I sold my Zopa loans last month. I did not get back what I would have liked, perhaps, but at least they almost all sold within a couple of days and I had no problem withdrawing it. In the future, I would be willing to consider Zopa again. But I will stear clear of Funding Circle.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jun 15, 2019 6:46:49 GMT
The company said the increased waiting times were not the result of a lack of demand from investors. A new approach attempts to ensure new customers are not matched with an unfair proportion of old loans that customers are seeking to sell, which may include an underperforming cohort. I don't see how this stacks up. Since you can't sell loans that are in any way looking iffy, hoovering up a large proportion of old (currently performing) loans is surely more desirable than going to the new loan pick'n'mix for a batch of loans which might or might not turn out to be duds in short order. I think FC’s reasoning stacks up. They know they have bad cohorts in 2017 and 2018, probably because they relaxed DD when going for growth and IPO, and I now suspect they have tightened up the DD now they need large funding to replace the FC Investment Trust, which like you guys is stuffed with cr@p and like you wants to sell up and go away. If the IT has as many problems selling as you guys then it’s going to be a long time before it is wound down and investors receive their cash. the FC credit chief is due to give his six monthly update at the end of this month. Watch this space....
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Jun 15, 2019 9:20:33 GMT
I don't see how this stacks up. Since you can't sell loans that are in any way looking iffy, hoovering up a large proportion of old (currently performing) loans is surely more desirable than going to the new loan pick'n'mix for a batch of loans which might or might not turn out to be duds in short order. I think FC’s reasoning stacks up. They know they have bad cohorts in 2017 and 2018, probably because they relaxed DD when going for growth and IPO, and I now suspect they have tightened up the DD now they need large funding to replace the FC Investment Trust, which like you guys is stuffed with cr@p and like you wants to sell up and go away. If the IT has as many problems selling as you guys then it’s going to be a long time before it is wound down and investors receive their cash. the FC credit chief is due to give his six monthly update at the end of this month. Watch this space.... I agree with ashtondav , from the Q1 Update issued on 18th April 2019 One good thing with the IPO (for us) is that they have to be more careful with the information that they present.
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Post by rweb on Jun 15, 2019 14:50:42 GMT
Just doing a little more work on this and forecasting sell dates based on the linear projection.
The linear equation works out at y=0.5348x-23244 (based on date x values in excel and y being the number of days to sell). The R2 value for the trendline is 0.9852. A value of 1 would mean a perfect linear correlation coefficient, so at 0.98 we can be confident that so far sell times have been increasing at a very steady and predictable rate.
That means going forward, and assuming the rate of growth in sell times remains constant, we can expect:
- 25/4/19 (Ref. indexwrangler), next on the list in criston post #1 to be sold on or around 26th June after 63 days
- Someone selling yesterday 14th June could expect to sell on or around 12th September after 89 days
As there has been some minor variance in sell times, I'd allow +/- 1 day on these forecasts, and to repeat, they assume that this growth rate remains constant.
After the significant wait it seems that many are selling only around 60% of what they tried to tell, due mostly it seems to loans entering "processing". On that basis, this someone putting 100% of their loans up for sale yesterday would expect, after two consecutive selling cycles, to receive 84% of their investment back on 27th January 2020.
I suspect and hope that FC will come under significant pressure to improve this situation as the data demonstrates that this is clearly a change to Funding Circle's models and algorithms for managing loans and fund allocation. It does not demonstrate a liquidity issue, nor a significant increase in those of us trying to sell loan parts. My best guess is they have simply lowered the % of newly invested funds which can be allocated to the secondary market.
Updated graph below:
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