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Post by geosaddler on Sept 19, 2019 14:36:50 GMT
I started another sale on 16/9. On to my third cycle now and down to the dregs. All I can say is I am glad that I am effectively out now!!!
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Post by rweb on Sept 20, 2019 8:10:33 GMT
Looks like after a short plateau of stable selling duration, it's on the increase again
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Post by happyhippy on Sept 20, 2019 8:17:44 GMT
Looks like after a short plateau of stable selling duration, it's on the increase again I know. I'm on day 112 for my classic.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Sept 20, 2019 8:18:42 GMT
Looks like after a short plateau of stable selling duration, it's on the increase again
Seem so. There's a nice cluster of closely-spaced sale requests coming up next, including 7 made on a single day, 31 May 2019. It will be interesting to see by how far they get spread out.
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tjtl
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Post by tjtl on Sept 20, 2019 8:20:32 GMT
All the indications point to a real liquidity squeeze, and I suspect we may see the "days to sell" continuing to increase- perhaps alarmingly so. I know it is only a tiny unrepresentative sample but even looking at page 1 of this posting shows a build up of sellers reaching exit point over the next few days (including me)- and I don't see any sign at all of institutions putting any new cash onto FC (and why would you given the current Macro uncertainties and FCs current performance). We are less than a month away from the 3rd quarter update that FC will make to the stock-market- I think this will take some drafting not to scare the horses. I am taking a deep breath, keeping fingers crossed, and am prepared to see what happens over the next two weeks. IF FC invoke their "120 day rule" (which they have said they will not, but retain the "right" to change their mind)there will be a real ****storm- otherwise I suspect we have little choice but to quietly fume and sit it out.
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Post by Mr Smith on Sept 20, 2019 9:15:09 GMT
All the indications point to a real liquidity squeeze, and I suspect we may see the "days to sell" continuing to increase- perhaps alarmingly so. I know it is only a tiny unrepresentative sample but even looking at page 1 of this posting shows a build up of sellers reaching exit point over the next few days (including me)- and I don't see any sign at all of institutions putting any new cash onto FC (and why would you given the current Macro uncertainties and FCs current performance). We are less than a month away from the 3rd quarter update that FC will make to the stock-market- I think this will take some drafting not to scare the horses. I am taking a deep breath, keeping fingers crossed, and am prepared to see what happens over the next two weeks. IF FC invoke their "120 day rule" (which they have said they will not, but retain the "right" to change their mind)there will be a real ****storm- otherwise I suspect we have little choice but to quietly fume and sit it out. I think we are in the time period now were the people who witnessed others cashing in their chips, seeing sell times shoot up, panicked and pulled the plug, which might explain the glut of sales coming up. I panicked earlier and was lucky enough to get a chunk of my cash out and now I am stuck in this rush to sell. We might see the sale time shoot up now but it should level off/fall as these sale requests are fulfilled. I've said before, one way or another the loans will be serviced even if FC disappeared, you might have to wait 5 years to get your money out but that's the risk. What I am trying to say is, dont panic.
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corto
Member of DD Central
one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Sept 20, 2019 9:22:47 GMT
Instead of a liquidity squeeze (is there evidence for one? they are growing) it could also be a hand-made attempt to spread out previous year's bad loans as thinly as possible across lenders. That edge in the sales curve in January suggests that it is not "free market" forces.
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Post by tungsten on Sept 20, 2019 10:19:15 GMT
I still think the problem with selling is related to the investment fund stopping lending. We know the date they announced they were unwinding the fund (and FC say this is being done naturally, ie let the repayments dribble back rather than sell them back to the market) - but we do we know when they might have paused the lending?
Could be wrong but it feels like that vast account was happily hoovering up majority of loans being sold back to the market, which was why it was near instant to release your funds a year ago. I expect most of the biggish accounts (£100k-£500k) have also stopped lending due to this situation.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 20, 2019 10:34:06 GMT
P2p global (now pollen street) also ditched FC loans after underperformance.
Two big sources of capital have dried up suddenly.
On the plus side page 1 shows only 8 sellers in August and two month to date September, so selling pressure is easing if this forum is representative of the whole universe of lenders.
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Post by tungsten on Sept 20, 2019 10:34:53 GMT
This article from (Friday) 5th April 2019: www.ft.com/content/b0f5d452-5781-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1Says this: So I think they paused their lending around then, possibly earlier. The original post on here indicates when the vote was passed to unwind the portfolio - but if they weren't selling loans back (as FC have claimed) then that's no different to leaving lending paused and collecting the repayments? Looking at the timing, I think the queue to sell started to grow as soon as the fund stopped lending. Other bigger accounts may have switched their lending off in the meantime, but the dominant factor for me was the investment fund not servicing the queue to sell loans any more. Anyway, thanks again to Criston for maintaining the thread
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b
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Post by b on Sept 20, 2019 14:09:08 GMT
It seems so. I already went back to the start of the queue to change from selling £1k to 50%, so I’m going to keep my place in the queue now. In the meantime, whilst it is laborious, I’m opening my iPad once a day and withdrawing all available funds. It’s a bit under 0.1% a day it seems, but for the 120+ days I’m likely to be in the queue that’s another 10% of my holding sold. why bother every day I'm ? unless you think they may go under, i let mine build up and take £100 or £200 a time. since setting up my sale on 28 july I've got 6.5% of my total back so by the time my sale goes through I think 13% back in the normal flow of returns. Thanks, that’s working quite well. I left it 4 days and almost 1% became available for withdrawal so I took that just now. If I can get 1% a week that’ll be about 15% by the time my current sale order gets to the front of the queue. It might not be long until withdrawing “available funds” is the fastest way to sell in FC altogether.
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grant
New Member
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Post by grant on Sept 20, 2019 16:22:44 GMT
Thanks Criston for this invaluable thread. I listed around £34k of loan parts on 30 May. Today is day 113. They have been selling this afternoon over the past 2 hours or so. Selling was rapid at first with about £30k sold in the first hour. Then paused for short periods then restarted. There are still about £500 worth of sellable parts listed for sale which seem to be going very slowly.
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criston
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Post by criston on Sept 21, 2019 12:06:32 GMT
'grant' & 'Southwestpete' both set up sales on the same day, 30/5/19. 'grant' sold 19 hours ago.
With the recent trend extending by 3 days for each passing calendar day, if 'grant' sold early in the day & 'Southwestpete' sold late in the day, it is quite possible 'Southwestpete' could be waiting up to the end of this weekend.
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grant
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Post by grant on Sept 21, 2019 15:43:39 GMT
Criston I had a second batch of loans worth around £32k which I manage on behalf of my father. These were also listed for sale on 30 May. They sold early today by around 7am. So day 114.
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Post by Southwestpete on Sept 21, 2019 16:17:48 GMT
Hi criston
nothing has happens as yet my end
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