richv
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Post by richv on Oct 20, 2019 12:27:47 GMT
I have no argument with a 40% recovery statistic for yesteryear. My experience of an account started about 7 years ago, hand-picked and largely inactive for the last five years (bar a small very short experimental fray a couple years back) is circa 40% recovery achieved. I’m less optimistic about my most recent experiment started about 20 months ago and ended 10 months ago. Recovery currently is about 7% and quite a few loans that individually account for a tenth each of total bad debt are already looking like total write off certs. I would expect recent cohorts to recover below 40%. I’m not factoring in any further recovery but if forced to make a prediction would hazard a guess at 20% for the low point of runaways pre-IPO loan-book growth. Cohorts significantly before might have a chance to fare better than 20% (but below 40%). Jury is still out on the cohort just written now. I would be very interested to know how others have got on with default recovery. I have just over £8,400 defaulted and as of last week passed the 10% recovery, that's on a 7 year old account, but most of the defaulters have happened in the last 18 months, and are mostly from the bad years. I'm getting about £45 a month recovery, so £500 i'sh a year, maybe that will go up a bit as more of the recent defaults get in to repayment plans, but then I do expected it to attenuate down, and not stop on a set day. I was looking at the stats page in the hope of gain some feel for recovers. Looking at 2012 loans: Lifetime default rate: 5.4% Projected bad debt rate 1.3% - 1.3% now the bad debt rate is an projection, so could move but as 2012 lones should have fully repaid at lest 2 years ago I expect it to be a good estimate and might explain why its a narrow band 1.3% - 1.3% but I know its an estimate. 1.3% divided by 5.4% =24% not recovered, so 76% of the money defaulted has been recovered 7 years after the loans started. For 2013 the numbers are 6.6% and 1.5%-1.6% (I'll use 1.6%) 24% so again 76% recovered after 6 years. For 2014 (only able to look at 54 months of defaults) 4.6% and 1.8%-2.1% = 45% not recoved so a 55% recovery rate. Concloshtion: FC was getting a very good recovery rate, that if continued would mean we could all worry a lot less about defaults, however the 2014 loans seem to show a less good recovery track, is this a trend or a blip? don't know. More recent loans have not been going long enough to say if they will follow the same pattern. P.S. if I have misunderstood the stats from FC page please correct me.
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corto
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Post by corto on Oct 20, 2019 12:30:47 GMT
Agreed, the recoveries will fluctuate. There are other complications in the game: Will FC survive long enough (probably), and if so, could one not yield better results elsewhere in the same time (possibly, but not at all certain)? Yet, a 90% discount as suggested further up this thread seems to make sense (for the seller) only in times of imminent expected failure in which case only a person ignorant of the fact would buy. Bought at 10% and recovered at (even) 20 only still would double the capital.
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Post by jagman on Oct 20, 2019 20:39:44 GMT
My wife and I have FC loans waiting to be sold as follows; Initiated 24 June 2019; £5117 (waited approx 60 days for about £12000 to be sold, then only sold about £6500. Then had to re-list the remaining amount--not sold so far--currently indicating 130 days for loans sold between 9 and 15 Oct. Email from FC said they will be sold all at once this time after I complained!) Initiated 14 July 2019; £40258 Initiated 23 September 2019; £50378
I am very concerned that the time period to sell seems to be now extending longer than the period between each declaration of the time it takes to sell; 2-8 Oct 124 days, 9-15 Oct 130 days. +6 days over 7 days. I have moved one day forward in seven days. When this becomes negative, I will not be able to sell anything, until it becomes positive.
I will let you know when (if!) these loans sell and will try to find out the hourly rate of sale.
Regarding the 120 rule in Ts&Cs, how can it be legal to ignore this "while our review of the selling process takes place"?
Regards
Sean
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Post by jagman on Oct 20, 2019 21:11:48 GMT
I think I have misinterpreted the 120 day rule! I think "delisting" means that the request to sell is removed and you have to start again, not that they have to pay your capital back after 120 days! Is this correct? If so, we are all looking at a disaster about to happen--no-one in their right mind is going to invest if there is no chance of getting your capital back and then there is only one way this can go if there are no new investors! The only up-side is that the great majority of my loans are still "active" rather than bad debt and by not re-investing (Autobid off) I am gradually getting some money back! Sean
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 20, 2019 21:14:53 GMT
I think I have misinterpreted the 120 day rule! I think "delisting" means that the request to sell is removed and you have to start again, not that they have to pay your capital back after 120 days! Is this correct? If so, we are all looking at a disaster about to happen--no-one in their right mind is going to invest if there is no chance of getting your capital back and then there is only one way this can go if there are no new investors! The only up-side is that the great majority of my loans are still "active" rather than bad debt and by not re-investing (Autobid off) I am gradually getting some money back! Sean Correct.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 20, 2019 21:16:36 GMT
My wife and I have FC loans waiting to be sold as follows; Initiated 24 June 2019; £5117 (waited approx 60 days for about £12000 to be sold, then only sold about £6500. Then had to re-list the remaining amount--not sold so far--currently indicating 130 days for loans sold between 9 and 15 Oct. Email from FC said they will be sold all at once this time after I complained!) Initiated 14 July 2019; £40258 Initiated 23 September 2019; £50378 I am very concerned that the time period to sell seems to be now extending longer than the period between each declaration of the time it takes to sell; 2-8 Oct 124 days, 9-15 Oct 130 days. +6 days over 7 days. I have moved one day forward in seven days. When this becomes negative, I will not be able to sell anything, until it becomes positive. I will let you know when (if!) these loans sell and will try to find out the hourly rate of sale. Regarding the 120 rule in Ts&Cs, how can it be legal to ignore this "while our review of the selling process takes place"? Regards Sean I am unsure that you are aware of the list on page 1 of this thread, which would show your early low percentage sale, would have been before FC changed the processing rules. The list will give you a better insight as to how sales are moving. All sales, once started, are completed in one go, although of late, have pauses. I have added your sales to the list.
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Post by jagman on Oct 20, 2019 21:21:10 GMT
Yes--I was aware of your first post--which is very useful. I will keep an eye on it. I am aware that my first sale preceded changes to the sales policy and that now I can expect 100% to be sold, when my loans reach the top of the queue. My main concern that in the last week, it has take seven days to move one day up in the queue. Your page 1 confirms this. It can't be long until we start moving backwards! If they cancel all sale requests after 120 days, we will never be able to sell! Sean
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 20, 2019 21:28:07 GMT
Yes--I was aware of your first post--which is very useful. I will keep an eye on it. I am aware that my first sale preceded changes to the sales policy and that now I can expect 100% to be sold, when my loans reach the top of the queue. My main concern that in the last week, it has take seven days to move one day up in the queue. Your page 1 confirms this. It can't be long until we start moving backwards! If they cancel all sale requests after 120 days, we will never be able to sell! Sean You will not get 100%. Look at your loan list under My Portfolio, (now as a guide), which will change when nearing your selling date. Deduct loans with late payments & live loans with 'risk band removed'. Any loans processing at date of sale will not get sold also. Edit. By the time you get to your sale date, you could have withdrawn well over 20% worth of repayments.
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Post by jaycee on Oct 21, 2019 20:03:58 GMT
I have moved one day forward in seven days. When this becomes negative, I will not be able to sell anything, until it becomes positive. It can go to zero (no selling) but it can't go negative unless people who have sold somehow un-sell.
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criston
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Post by criston on Oct 22, 2019 7:51:34 GMT
This was posted on MoneySavingExpert 21/10/19.
'I'm not currently selling any loans. My Funding Circle ISA shows £230 held in cash, which I thought was quite high. The transaction history shows that I have not auto-purchased any new loans since 10th October.
Suggests that live portfolios are not buying old debt.'
It appears the investors are there. It's not going into new loans either.
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Oct 22, 2019 8:13:45 GMT
well the £230 could be less than 0.5% of the sellers total investment ( unlikely ), or they could be in queue to sell, or they could have lending turned off.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 22, 2019 9:16:46 GMT
well the £230 could be less than 0.5% of the sellers total investment ( unlikely ), or they could be in queue to sell, or they could have lending turned off. ... or the people with active sales at the front of the queue could have loan parts that are too large for such buyers to take...? FC never used to have loan parts split or combined when re-selling, and I'm not aware of them having introduced such functionality.
That might partly explain the significant disparity in perceived/reported selling speed - sellers who have relatively small loan parts would find buyers very easily and sales zip through, whereas those with much larger loan parts have comparatively few potential buyers, so sales stall until enough buyers can be found.
Maybe FC could ease the situation by repackaging some of the larger retail loan parts that are being actively sold into a product that they can sell to an institutional investor?
Even better a the new process allowing a group of loans to be repackaged and sold to an institutional investor could also include the "duds" at a fair price.
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Post by kebabby1 on Oct 22, 2019 11:13:25 GMT
Hi
I placed the following sale.
Estimated funds from sale £9,768.21
Date requested October 21, 2019
Thanks
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Post by mike88 on Oct 22, 2019 12:40:03 GMT
Can we get a feeling of how many in the list have large sales coming up which will take time to process?
Based on earlier posts it looks like it was moving at about 4k an hour (maybe?) so can we get a feel for how many people in the queue have say above £50k as these may take more than 24hrs each
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corto
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Post by corto on Oct 22, 2019 13:21:20 GMT
Can we get a feeling of how many in the list have large sales coming up which will take time to process? Based on earlier posts it looks like it was moving at about 4k an hour (maybe?) so can we get a feel for how many people in the queue have say above £50k as these may take more than 24hrs each ca 150£ for me (5th in the row last time I looked)
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