Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on May 3, 2019 8:29:41 GMT
I'm dreaming of 40% recovery. I realise that my accounts are too young to have meaningful recoveries, but if you want a laugh... My classic (invested in Feb 18) 0.02% recoveries. My ISA (invested in Feb 18) 0.003% recoveries. Relative's ISA (invested in Apr 18) 0.007% recoveries.
My account is about a year older than yours, and a year ago I would have reported about the same as you have. That extra year will make a lot of difference in terms of the flow of recoveries picking up pace. My recoveries have steadily increased and are now at just over 11% (apart from the occasional default which knocks the percentage back again). I expect it will be in excess of 5 years (possibly 10!) before everything finally settles.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 3, 2019 8:33:55 GMT
I started with FC in mid 2011. My Classic account is showing 25.9% recoveries
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alanh
Posts: 556
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Post by alanh on May 3, 2019 8:53:17 GMT
Recoveries do seem to slowly edge up. I started late 2014 and had recoveries of:
May 2016 5.4% May 2017 14.8% May 2018 21.1% May 2019 24.2%
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ton27
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Post by ton27 on May 3, 2019 12:18:47 GMT
I have been in FC for more than 5 years but stopped when the "Black Box" came in. Had a high of about £30k but now down to £1500. Of that only £340 is "live" with most of the difference in "Property Loans". My recoveries are 51% and the stated annual return 7.6%. This will drop to 6.1% if all of the Property Loans go bad - which i do not expect to happen. Overall, not a bad experience.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on May 3, 2019 15:17:09 GMT
My recoveries are currently 47.1% of defaults (no new investment since late 2015, and all loans that were able to be sold fully liquidated by end of Q1 2016).
Each month, I'm currently getting further recoveries equivalent to about 0.4%-0.5% (although this is gradually slowing), so it seems likely I'll have exceeded 50% recoveries within another year.
One thing that many P2P investors seem to fail to appreciate is that recoveries literally take many years... the first platform I invested through (Zopa) is still making recovery payments from some of the loans that I invested in during the first few months after joining in 2008.
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dorset
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Post by dorset on May 3, 2019 15:44:07 GMT
306 defaults since starting in 2011. Recoveries currently at 31.9%.
Decent returns until 2018 then everything went pear shaped (just about broke even in that year) with losses mainly on 2016 and 2017 loans.
Showing a small capital loss in 2019.
Not selling out but letting all my loans (pre Sept 2017) gradually run out. With recoveries expect to still be in FC in 2025.
Have no experience of 2018 and 2019 loans but something went badly wrong with the FC 2016 and 2017 loans. IMO linked to the IPO and the dash for growth with subsequent giving up on any sort of DD.
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coogaruk
Hello everyone! Anyone remember me?
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Post by coogaruk on May 3, 2019 16:37:55 GMT
Decent returns until 2018 then everything went pear shaped (just about broke even in that year) with losses mainly on 2016 and 2017 loans. Showing a small capital loss in 2019. Not selling out but letting all my loans (pre Sept 2017) gradually run out. With recoveries expect to still be in FC in 2025. Have no experience of 2018 and 2019 loans but something went badly wrong with the FC 2016 and 2017 loans. IMO linked to the IPO and the dash for growth with subsequent giving up on any sort of DD. Similar experience here and agree with your sentiment.
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Mucho P2P
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Post by Mucho P2P on May 3, 2019 16:46:41 GMT
I first invested in 2012 and well remember the hours picking out loans and trying to get the best rate. I have exited in 2019 (as far as I can). I had £20k to £30k invested over the early years, a windfall allowed me to boost that over £100k in 2017. Triggered by the 18/19 Funding Circle Tax Return I have made as full an exit as is possible during February to April 2019. My 18/19 FC Tax Return shows £9k earned in interest and £9k lost to bad debt.I now have a legacy balance of £5k, of which £4k is "late". The remaining £1k is up for sale, but I expect it will be mid-June before I see a result as the selling time has got longer and longer. I asked FC to send me a full list of my transactions (150,000+ rows of Excel) from which I can see that over the 8 years the difference between what I deposited and what I took out is a gain of circa £10k. I did a quick calculation just based on annual snapshots of my invested balance. If I had put the cash into a low risk investment at say, 2% compound per year, then I would have made £7k.On the same basis, if I had looked for a 5% return, then I should have expected £18k.Assuming I can extract half of my remaining balance over the coming years to add to my already crystallised £10k gain, it equates to roughly a 3.25% overall return. My FC summary says I have made a 4.8% annual return. I think it overstates the situation because my remaining £4k balance is flagged as late and not yet as bad. If I can be bothered I may re-run my numbers in say, 12 months, once the late debts are resolved one way or another. Very similar experience to myself. Opened FC account in 2012, the self select loans performed quite well and were quite enjoyable to pick and choose which ones to invest into. Once the black box system was implemented and FC had decided to go public, OH NO........ From what was my largest P2P investments/holdings in a platform, FC is now my smallest due to the high level of defaults. FC credit committee needs to up their game, or their share price will tumble even further.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 3, 2019 18:35:23 GMT
I'm dreaming of 40% recovery. I realise that my accounts are too young to have meaningful recoveries, but if you want a laugh... My classic (invested in Feb 18) 0.02% recoveries. My ISA (invested in Feb 18) 0.003% recoveries. Relative's ISA (invested in Apr 18) 0.007% recoveries. 16 Months account: XIRR 5.42% - sold 1.3% recoveries 81 Months account: XIRR 6.28% - active 33% recoveries 31 Months account: XIRR 4.6% - sold (poor manual picks) 8% recoveries 14 Months account: XIRR 5.71% active 0.02% recoveries The only conclusion I have is active reinvesting yield higher return.
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Post by df on May 3, 2019 18:55:24 GMT
I'm dreaming of 40% recovery. I realise that my accounts are too young to have meaningful recoveries, but if you want a laugh... My classic (invested in Feb 18) 0.02% recoveries. My ISA (invested in Feb 18) 0.003% recoveries. Relative's ISA (invested in Apr 18) 0.007% recoveries. 16 Months account: XIRR 5.42% - sold 1.3% recoveries 81 Months account: XIRR 6.28% - active 33% recoveries 31 Months account: XIRR 4.6% - sold (poor manual picks) 8% recoveries 14 Months account: XIRR 5.71% active 0.02% recoveries The only conclusion I have is active reinvesting yield higher return. It crossed my mind when the "new auto-regime" kicked in. No selling fees, immediate sale, very little cash drag - refreshing loan book monthly or every 2 months could keep percentage of defaults down. I didn't do it, but in theory it could work for about a year until mass exodus started.
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benaj
Member of DD Central
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Post by benaj on May 3, 2019 19:09:34 GMT
16 Months account: XIRR 5.42% - sold 1.3% recoveries 81 Months account: XIRR 6.28% - active 33% recoveries 31 Months account: XIRR 4.6% - sold (poor manual picks) 8% recoveries 14 Months account: XIRR 5.71% active 0.02% recoveries The only conclusion I have is active reinvesting yield higher return. It crossed my mind when the "new auto-regime" kicked in. No selling fees, immediate sale, very little cash drag - refreshing loan book monthly or every 2 months could keep percentage of defaults down. I didn't do it, but in theory it could work for about a year until mass exodus started. Sounds in theory, but cash drag was bad 14 months ago, loan matching takes weeks under normal circumstances and sometimes it stopped matching loans for a week.
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Post by df on May 3, 2019 19:12:38 GMT
I'm dreaming of 40% recovery. I realise that my accounts are too young to have meaningful recoveries, but if you want a laugh... My classic (invested in Feb 18) 0.02% recoveries. My ISA (invested in Feb 18) 0.003% recoveries. Relative's ISA (invested in Apr 18) 0.007% recoveries. I don't even know the value of my recoveries. This new display (in squares) they recently introduced doesn't let me see the value of my recoveries - the line is about 90% covered by the pink/purple "net earnings" row at the bottom. It used to be half visible so I could figure out the digits, but now it's gone way too far up to make any sense. Tried with two different browsers on two different Mac's - no joy
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blender
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Post by blender on May 3, 2019 19:12:38 GMT
My experience was six very good years with lots of entertainment, followed by one worthless year. So, overall a very profitable relationship, which has ended.
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Post by df on May 3, 2019 19:34:24 GMT
It crossed my mind when the "new auto-regime" kicked in. No selling fees, immediate sale, very little cash drag - refreshing loan book monthly or every 2 months could keep percentage of defaults down. I didn't do it, but in theory it could work for about a year until mass exodus started. Sounds in theory, but cash drag was bad 14 months ago, loan matching takes weeks under normal circumstances and sometimes it stopped matching loans for a week. Yes, I recall conversation on this board about cash drag, I even put my penny in complaining about investment queue. But then realised that when you sell, reinvestment is automatically turns off I turned it on and all my idle cash got reinvested shortly.
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on May 3, 2019 23:39:56 GMT
It crossed my mind when the "new auto-regime" kicked in. No selling fees, immediate sale, very little cash drag - refreshing loan book monthly or every 2 months could keep percentage of defaults down. I didn't do it, but in theory it could work for about a year until mass exodus started.
I opened a new account and did precisely this, selling every 2 months (3 months, one time). I did it for 4 iterations.
Each time, it typically took 2-and-a-bit weeks to get the lump sum fully loaned out, buying approximately 200 loan parts. Then, on the day before the 2nd payments started becoming due, it typically took 2 minutes to sell everything. Roughly speaking, I was losing on average 1 week in cash drag per 2 months (lending happened surprisingly linearly).
During the lending phase, I took steps to increase the proportion of brand new loans compared to "old" ones from the secondary market, for example by only switching lending on between 9:30am and 6pm on business days, and by selling non-round amounts when the Sell page offered them.
Anyway, of the 800-odd loans I received in total, only 2 defaulted (one of which was an "old" loan), and 1 downgraded (but is still paying on schedule). Everything else sold. This was a dramatically better result than my older FC account.
My XIRR from this strategy was over 9% at first, and settled down to an overall 8.3%. My FC dashboard says 9.1%, but that ignores unlent cash and is therefore misleading.
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