ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,805 
Likes: 1,087
|
Post by ashtondav on May 6, 2019 9:00:23 GMT
|
|
agent69
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,598
Likes: 4,183
|
Post by agent69 on May 6, 2019 9:12:33 GMT
Taking a single month in isolation is not very meaningful.
The April 2019 figures are down on April 2018 mainly because April 2018 was a good month (about 150% more loans than April 2017). It's probably just swings and roundabouts.
|
|
lara
Posts: 345
Likes: 300
|
Post by lara on May 6, 2019 9:20:16 GMT
And could that not be a good sign, in that they are being more choosy about the ones they do select?
|
|
|
|
Post by turton on May 6, 2019 9:38:21 GMT
Taking a single month in isolation is not very meaningful.
The April 2019 figures are down on April 2018 mainly because April 2018 was a good month (about 150% more loans than April 2017). It's probably just swings and roundabouts.
Taking a single month in isolation is not very meaningful..... If you look at February they are showing +77 % , all the companies listed show great variances each month,
|
|
|
|
Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on May 6, 2019 10:09:58 GMT
If it was down to me I'd rather they had an eye on the economy and where it might be in a years time.
So is there some healthy caution in this?
|
|
sl75
Posts: 2,092
Likes: 1,245
|
Post by sl75 on May 6, 2019 10:10:37 GMT
It also states "Source: own research", giving no details of the methods used.
A very large proportion of AC's "new" lending is now in the form of additional tranches to previously-agreed lending facilities, which will not show up at all for several simplistic methods of analysis - the only ways I'm aware of are to go through each individual loan's "repayment" tab, looking for additional principal advances, or to compare two loan book snapshots looking for an increase in the loan amount of an existing loans.
My bet is that the analysis method used has simply not counted the majority of the "new" lending that's occurred in the last month or so.
Edit: having compared my own snapshots from start/end of April, I get pretty close to the £23.9M quoted (my figures came out at £13.8M of new loans and £9.8M of additional tranches for £23.6M total - my method may have missed additional tranches that occurred just before a full repayment, or include/exclude different loans that occurred right at the start/end of the month).
|
|
|
|
Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on May 6, 2019 11:03:55 GMT
It also states "Source: own research", giving no details of the methods used.
A very large proportion of AC's "new" lending is now in the form of additional tranches to previously-agreed lending facilities, which will not show up at all for several simplistic methods of analysis - the only ways I'm aware of are to go through each individual loan's "repayment" tab, looking for additional principal advances, or to compare two loan book snapshots looking for an increase in the loan amount of an existing loans.
My bet is that the analysis method used has simply not counted the majority of the "new" lending that's occurred in the last month or so.
Edit: having compared my own snapshots from start/end of April, I get pretty close to the £23.9M quoted (my figures came out at £13.8M of new loans and £9.8M of additional tranches for £23.6M total - my method may have missed additional tranches that occurred just before a full repayment, or include/exclude different loans that occurred right at the start/end of the month).
I see you've edited your post, anyway I've always thought that they attribute the whole amount of a loan in the first month that they "notionally allocate" funds to a loan (my own terminology) Ed. I use the figure that AC stick up on their site.
|
|
bg
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,368
Likes: 1,929
|
Post by bg on May 6, 2019 11:32:57 GMT
It also states "Source: own research", giving no details of the methods used.
A very large proportion of AC's "new" lending is now in the form of additional tranches to previously-agreed lending facilities, which will not show up at all for several simplistic methods of analysis - the only ways I'm aware of are to go through each individual loan's "repayment" tab, looking for additional principal advances, or to compare two loan book snapshots looking for an increase in the loan amount of an existing loans.
My bet is that the analysis method used has simply not counted the majority of the "new" lending that's occurred in the last month or so.
Edit: having compared my own snapshots from start/end of April, I get pretty close to the £23.9M quoted (my figures came out at £13.8M of new loans and £9.8M of additional tranches for £23.6M total - my method may have missed additional tranches that occurred just before a full repayment, or include/exclude different loans that occurred right at the start/end of the month).
I see you've edited your post, anyway I've always thought that they attribute the whole amount of a loan in the first month that they "notionally allocate" funds to a loan (my own terminology) Ed. I use the figure that AC stick up on their site. They attribute the loan amount which is the amount that has been lent by lenders up front. Of that amount they may (or may not) hold some back from the borrower for interest repayments or to be released as work progresses. As future unfunded tranches progress the loan amount increases up to the total facility amount. So for #986 £2.67m was lent up front but there is a further facility of £1.494m which will be drawn down in future tranches. The total 'loan amounts' for new loans in April are £13.8m as stated. I don't think too much can be read into one months figures, especially on a platform where the number of loans is relatively small (19 new loans in April) compared to the likes of FC. The lead time on a large dev loan may be quite substantial and the month in which it actually draws is probably fairly random and hard to control. A £5m loan falling in one month as opposed to another will massively distort the numbers. Easter was also very late this year and has lead to a substantial slowdown in origination in the middle of April. This was to be expected and things should pick up in the coming weeks.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 10,848
Likes: 11,077
|
Post by ilmoro on May 6, 2019 11:34:55 GMT
Does it factor in loans going elsewhere? There are a number of pipeline loans that have subsequently gone to institutional investors rather than retail which would suggest that origination as a whole may not be reflected in those numbers.
|
|
|
|
Post by wiseclerk on May 6, 2019 14:03:44 GMT
I get pretty close to the £23.9M quoted (my figures came out at £13.8M of new loans and £9.8M of additional tranches for £23.6M total - It is €23.9M (see description below table)
|
|
|
|
Post by danielbird193 on May 7, 2019 10:03:14 GMT
Remember we had the Easter holidays in April this year. Last year Easter was the 1 April so much of the break fell into March. I'm sure this will affect the number of drawdowns processed.
Month-on-month variances are often just "noise".
|
|
