Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on May 12, 2019 22:30:01 GMT
Just an observation. Every time Non-Brexit party politicians are asked if Nigel et al are a threat they dismiss them.
What I see for european ellections will be a proxy second referendum.
Leavers can choose UKIP or The Brexit Party. UKIP losing followers at a huge rate to the Brexit Party (Lab.& Cons too)
Remain basically can choose any of the others. The either can't make up their minds in Westminster or are remain.
Second Referendum is only advocated by remainers that want to split the brexit vote as remainers vote will be split in EU election.
Second Referendum is only valid if Question is the same as last time. You can't have more than one choice unless there is PR as EU election.
I Think it will drag on till a general election where the only clear Manefestos (re. Brexit) will be Brexit Party, Ukip, Greens, SNP, and Lib Dems.
Brexit Party will Hold the balance of power. Think SNP might get a shock in EU election. When it turns out Baw Heed Blackford's 60% are actually not representative as many leave Scots did not vote in last referendum as they thought stay had already won.
Interesting but continuning chaotic times.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2019 7:02:52 GMT
Second Referendum is only valid if Question is the same as last time. You can't have more than one choice unless there is PR as EU election. A confirmatory referendum would need three answers - because there are three, and only three, options... Leave with no deal, Leave with the deal as negotiated by May, Don't leave. There are a multiplicity of ways to allow that to work, but STV (as used in NI for the European elections) is by far and away the easiest and fairest. Signify your first and second preference, then the option with the lowest number of 1sts gets discarded, and the 2nds get allocated across the others. It's not just perfectly valid, but the only way out of the current deadlock, since Parliament have shown they can't come up with a majority behind any one option - despite multiple votes... (BTW, you forgot the Tories as a hard-leave party, and Labour as a not-quite-sure-but-probably-soft-leave party. That leaves LD/ChUK/Green as the only Remain options.)
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travolta
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Post by travolta on May 13, 2019 7:09:17 GMT
The next referendum is the EU election. Don't you feel that MPs ought to be selected as in Jury Service Ballot? Couldn't be any worse than the present system.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2019 7:14:20 GMT
The next referendum is the EU election. I don't agree - just look at the confusion over where the two main parties stand. Hard brexiteers think they're remain parties. The Tories are quite clearly a leave party, and not even Labour seem to know what they are. No. What's needed is for the electorate to understand how their vote actually works, and vote for the individual candidate they think would be their best representative. Not to blindly vote for a ribbon colour, or for which party leader they think would be a good PM. Then we might get local parties selecting candidates who actually gave a toss about doing the job they're there for, not just placemen parachuted in from central office.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 13, 2019 7:55:30 GMT
Second Referendum is only valid if Question is the same as last time. You can't have more than one choice unless there is PR as EU election. A confirmatory referendum would need three answers - because there are three, and only three, options... Leave with no deal, Leave with the deal as negotiated by May, Don't leave. How can there be only 3 options when your list omits the option currently being discussed by the 2 main parties (something involving a customs union).
Don't forget that at no time during the original referendum was it stated that the final decision would be subject to a further vote of the people. It seems to me that if anyone wants to express a view on the current situation then the European elections is the ideal forum. I know the people that have been calling for a second vote won't agree, probably because the Brexit party is going to clean up and Chucka's mob are going to be trailing in their wake.
If there were to be a second vote, then there needs to be equality. You can't have 1 remain option and 2 leave options as that would obviously split the leave vote and would not be democratic.
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archie
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Post by archie on May 13, 2019 7:56:39 GMT
The likely result of a second referendum will be calls for a third referendum.
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Post by bracknellboy on May 13, 2019 8:04:27 GMT
A confirmatory referendum would need three answers - because there are three, and only three, options... Leave with no deal, Leave with the deal as negotiated by May, Don't leave. ...
If there were to be a second vote, then there needs to be equality. You can't have 1 remain option and 2 leave options as that would obviously split the leave vote and would not be democratic.
Whatever ones thoughts on the rights / wrongs of a confirmatory vote/second referendum, the above is nonsensical. The point would be to use something like, if not actually, a single transferable vote system. Its hardly rocket science.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2019 8:17:01 GMT
A confirmatory referendum would need three answers - because there are three, and only three, options... Leave with no deal, Leave with the deal as negotiated by May, Don't leave. How can there be only 3 options when your list omits the option currently being discussed by the 2 main parties (something involving a customs union). I think you might be forgetting it isn't up to the two party leaders alone to decide how to Leave... May and Corbyn can talk about what they like - but Parliament still has to support any deal they agree between them. And whatever they might come up with hasn't been agreed with the EU27, so it's just putting suggestions forward for further UK-EU27 negotiation. And the EU27 have repeatedly said they won't renegotiate any further - and who can blame them...? So even if May and Corbyn do agree on something over breakfast today, and even if Parliament support that deal with a majority vote, it's still not a done deal, by any stretch of the imagination. A lot of things WERE stated in the Leave campaign that have turned out to be impossible or untrue - as well as contradictory and mutually exclusive. We're at a situation now where neither of the Leave options bear the slightest resemblance to what was being sold in 2016. STV would address that. [ ] - Leave with No Deal [ ] - Leave on May's deal [ ] - Remain Put 1 in one box, put 2 in another box. The one that has fewest 1s gets crossed off. The 2s from that option are split between the others. Maybe a lot of leave-with-deal people really don't want "no deal". Maybe some "no deal" people prefer remaining to the alleged "BRINO" of May's deal.
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jo
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Post by jo on May 13, 2019 8:28:44 GMT
It would appear that the EU Elections aren't 'Peopley' enough for the People's Vote people.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 13, 2019 8:29:24 GMT
The likely result of a second referendum will be calls for a third referendum. it may take that, and maybe even more. But we shouldn't forget that we have already had two referendums on the issue, not one.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 13, 2019 9:20:39 GMT
STV would address that. [ ] - Leave with No Deal [ ] - Leave on May's deal [ ] - Remain Put 1 in one box, put 2 in another box. The one that has fewest 1s gets crossed off. The 2s from that option are split between the others. But that still splits the leave vote, which is obviously unfair. How about the options being:
- leave
- Remain retaining the status quo
- Remain while attempting to negotiate improved terms (for example control of borders)
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2019 9:31:29 GMT
STV would address that. [ ] - Leave with No Deal [ ] - Leave on May's deal [ ] - Remain Put 1 in one box, put 2 in another box. The one that has fewest 1s gets crossed off. The 2s from that option are split between the others. But that still splits the leave vote, which is obviously unfair. No, it doesn't split the leave vote. With those three choices, the final straight binary count is guaranteed to have at least one leave option. Whether that's "no deal" or "May's deal" is the variable. It may be a straight binary between those two, with Remain not making the cut. "Control of borders" (by which I guess you mean removing one of the four freedoms of movement - people) is simply 100% non-negotiable from the EU27's side. The four freedoms are indivisible. It's the reddest of red lines from their side. Anyway, the UK already has - and always had - options to reduce and restrict intra-EU migration, but Westminster simply chose not to use them. brexit853.wordpress.com/2016/09/27/powers-that-the-uk-has-failed-to-use-to-control-eu-freedom-of-movement-directive/
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Post by bracknellboy on May 13, 2019 9:35:42 GMT
STV would address that. [ ] - Leave with No Deal [ ] - Leave on May's deal [ ] - Remain Put 1 in one box, put 2 in another box. The one that has fewest 1s gets crossed off. The 2s from that option are split between the others. But that still splits the leave vote, which is obviously unfair. How about the options being:
- leave
- Remain retaining the status quo
- Remain while attempting to negotiate improved terms (for example control of borders)
I can't help but think that you are being deliberately obtuse - I'm not sure how many times it needs stating that not all voting systems are first past the post in nature, and that single transferrable voting is designed for precisely this kind of choice.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 13, 2019 18:13:52 GMT
"Control of borders" (by which I guess you mean removing one of the four freedoms of movement - people) is simply 100% non-negotiable from the EU27's side. And how many times have they said that in the past and then changed their minds:
- You can only have a brexit extension past 29th March if the UK has a clear plan of where it wants to go (that didn't last long), and
- The UK cannot cherry pick deals with the remaining 27, all must be treated equally (until they wanted to cherry pick a special deal for the Irish border)
Not to worry, for all those who have been pleading for a second referendum, your chance to record your position comes on 23rd when we have the defacto second referendum. If the Brexit party comes top it will be a clear expression of the will of the people that they want to leave.
PS: I still think your idea for a three way vote sells the leavers short.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 13, 2019 18:55:08 GMT
You can only have a brexit extension past 29th March if the UK has a clear plan of where it wants to go (that didn't last long) Indeed - they did us a massive favour on that one. But that's not a red line. And the government continues to be busy wasting that time. I don't know whether you've looked at a map, but I'd be very glad to hear how many others of the 27 you think the UK has a land border with... Let alone one with the kind of history that one has. Because you - probably deliberately - don't seem to understand how STV works.
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