voss
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Post by voss on May 15, 2019 10:19:30 GMT
Have searched for this as I know it was answered once: why is the spike (if any) in rates (on Rolling, at least) around third week rather than at the end of a month?
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starfished
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Post by starfished on May 15, 2019 16:13:00 GMT
Supply and demand. People typically are paid towards the end of the month and early in the month, so by the time you get to the third week, reduced surplus funds available for saving...
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Post by bagsy on May 17, 2019 6:41:31 GMT
I hope they spike next week (being 3rd week] as the rolling rates have been pathetic of late and I've just had a substantial sum repaid early...can't understand who would invest at 2.6% and 2.7% with the associated risk of P2P
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Post by oppsididitagain on May 20, 2019 21:17:04 GMT
got a few K matched at 3.7% in rolling yesterday
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on May 21, 2019 6:29:15 GMT
I hope they spike next week (being 3rd week] as the rolling rates have been pathetic of late and I've just had a substantial sum repaid early...can't understand who would invest at 2.6% and 2.7% with the associated risk of P2P It’s the “dumb money” from the ISA silly season. The poor devils will be burned come the next recession, but luckily their short term impact on lower rates should ease in a month or two.
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aju
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Post by aju on May 21, 2019 7:39:36 GMT
I hope they spike next week (being 3rd week] as the rolling rates have been pathetic of late and I've just had a substantial sum repaid early...can't understand who would invest at 2.6% and 2.7% with the associated risk of P2P It’s the “dumb money” from the ISA silly season. The poor devils will be burned come the next recession, but luckily their short term impact on lower rates should ease in a month or two. I understand the sentiment but how does lending now and lending in a couple of months time protect one, admittedly at better rates if lending manually, from a recession down the line?.
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Post by propman on May 21, 2019 9:16:08 GMT
Question is how the 28 day average MR restricts recovery of rates. At last the MR backlog is beginning to clear (has to go completely before there is anything to start lifting rates of course and, in fact stop the falling), but I suspect that it will take much longer to rise than it did to fall. Falling with MR uncleared daily meant that anyone hoping to match in reasonable time had to lend below MR so most of lending was below MR with some at MR. Once MR is finally cleared, there will always be MR money to clear from the day (except for non-banking days), will always be some lent at "lend now", so need the rest to outweigh that for any upwards shift. I would be surprised if we see MR close to 6% this year unless there is a scare of defaults.
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lara
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Post by lara on May 21, 2019 9:25:29 GMT
got a few K matched at 3.7% in rolling yesterday It's sad that this is noteworthy!
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aju
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Post by aju on May 21, 2019 9:34:21 GMT
Question is how the 28 day average MR restricts recovery of rates. At last the MR backlog is beginning to clear (has to go completely before there is anything to start lifting rates of course and, in fact stop the falling), but I suspect that it will take much longer to rise than it did to fall. Falling with MR uncleared daily meant that anyone hoping to match in reasonable time had to lend below MR so most of lending was below MR with some at MR. Once MR is finally cleared, there will always be MR money to clear from the day (except for non-banking days), will always be some lent at "lend now", so need the rest to outweigh that for any upwards shift. I would be surprised if we see MR close to 6% this year unless there is a scare of defaults. Hopefully you are wrong about rates rise, I fear not though. I wonder if that's the RS desired effect although to be fair once the new lenders/money subsides and the relend rates start to stabilise the rates manual lenders may achieve might return - I say might as I have only been lending in RS for a few months and it's hard to gauge the new rate averages compared to previous years as its completely different model. The step down since the start of the new 28 day avg is quite marked though so time will tell as all us rate chasers come to terms with the effects of the new model. At the moment it's still possible to get above MR in 5Y at least as posted on the day but at best it will be only 1 point above it as the bulk millions seems to sit 2 points above MR. I've put money on at the rate where all the "dumb" money sits and watched it filter down a little but its a juggling act some days to say the least. As the rates are still better than I can get at the best bank or zopa (after defaults effects) then I am still allowing money in my P2P pot to be filtered in after a few days. I could withdraw the returns but to be honest its assigned money in our portfolio for want of a better term. 
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 21, 2019 10:15:44 GMT
In a lending environment where the provision fund is materially weaker than it ever has been, I find the buoyant demand mildly (although not very) surprising. I'm not yet selling out, just withdrawing as repayments come in, but certainly nearer to withdrawing everything than topping up. Which is a shame, as the ongoing slaughtering of all decent bank account rates (e.g. Tesco disappearing shortly), leaves something of a dent in my overall returns.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 21, 2019 11:42:41 GMT
.. as the ongoing slaughtering of all decent bank account rates (e.g. Tesco disappearing shortly) Where is that written up?
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Post by propman on May 21, 2019 12:26:13 GMT
...I suspect that it will take much longer to rise than it did to fall. Falling with MR uncleared daily meant that anyone hoping to match in reasonable time had to lend below MR so most of lending was below MR with some at MR... Hopefully you are wrong about rates rise, I fear not though. I wonder if that's the RS desired effect although to be fair once the new lenders/money subsides and the relend rates start to stabilise the rates manual lenders may achieve might return - I say might as I have only been lending in RS for a few months and it's hard to gauge the new rate averages compared to previous years as its completely different model. The step down since the start of the new 28 day avg is quite marked though so time will tell as all us rate chasers come to terms with the effects of the new model. At the moment it's still possible to get above MR in 5Y at least as posted on the day but at best it will be only 1 point above it as the bulk millions seems to sit 2 points above MR. I've put money on at the rate where all the "dumb" money sits and watched it filter down a little but its a juggling act some days to say the least. As the rates are still better than I can get at the best bank or zopa (after defaults effects) then I am still allowing money in my P2P pot to be filtered in after a few days. I could withdraw the returns but to be honest its assigned money in our portfolio for want of a better term. I can't see how you have lent >MR for well over a month (unless we have had anomalous rates). For instance, MR has been 5.3% since 14/5 have you matched at above that during this period?
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aju
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Post by aju on May 21, 2019 14:21:13 GMT
Hopefully you are wrong about rates rise, I fear not though. I wonder if that's the RS desired effect although to be fair once the new lenders/money subsides and the relend rates start to stabilise the rates manual lenders may achieve might return - I say might as I have only been lending in RS for a few months and it's hard to gauge the new rate averages compared to previous years as its completely different model. The step down since the start of the new 28 day avg is quite marked though so time will tell as all us rate chasers come to terms with the effects of the new model. At the moment it's still possible to get above MR in 5Y at least as posted on the day but at best it will be only 1 point above it as the bulk millions seems to sit 2 points above MR. I've put money on at the rate where all the "dumb" money sits and watched it filter down a little but its a juggling act some days to say the least. As the rates are still better than I can get at the best bank or zopa (after defaults effects) then I am still allowing money in my P2P pot to be filtered in after a few days. I could withdraw the returns but to be honest its assigned money in our portfolio for want of a better term. I can't see how you have lent >MR for well over a month (unless we have had anomalous rates). For instance, MR has been 5.3% since 14/5 have you matched at above that during this period? I probably am misunderstanding what MR is then. I just clicked on Invest and it said I would lend at 5.1% if I clicked the right button. However if I made my own choice I could have lent at 5.2% before I hit the wall which when I wrote that was at 5.3%. How would I lend at MR on any given day. Clearly I have misunderstood MR persee.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 21, 2019 15:02:26 GMT
.. as the ongoing slaughtering of all decent bank account rates (e.g. Tesco disappearing shortly) Where is that written up? What, the bank rates? Nowhere as far as I know, but in the last 12 months I've had: Tesco cutting from 3% to 1%, TSB cutting from 5% to 3%, Lloyds cutting from 3% to 1.5%, Santander cutting from 3% to 1.5%, as well as the monthly saver rates being cut too. Even Halifax cut their reward down to £2 from £3 (pretty pathetic considering it used to be £5 about 10 years ago!). edit: just realised you might mean Tesco in particular. Here - from 14th June.
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Post by propman on May 21, 2019 15:48:21 GMT
I can't see how you have lent >MR for well over a month (unless we have had anomalous rates). For instance, MR has been 5.3% since 14/5 have you matched at above that during this period? I probably am misunderstanding what MR is then. I just clicked on Invest and it said I would lend at 5.1% if I clicked the right button. However if I made my own choice I could have lent at 5.2% before I hit the wall which when I wrote that was at 5.3%. How would I lend at MR on any given day. Clearly I have misunderstood MR persee. MR is for reinvestments set automatically and is based on an average rate, previously for previous day from some time in morning to 10PM, now from previous 28 days.
Separately there is the "lend it now" rate that is the highest outstanding offer (often from RS rather than a potential borrower directly). This latter sucks in unsophisticated money, but shouldn't create a stack of unlent funds. In contrast, theMR is the rate that the majority of the recycled funds are put on at after repayment runs. This latter is what has built up as new money has been put on at lower rates and so it has remained largely unlent.
HTH
PM
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