cwah
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Post by cwah on May 20, 2019 9:20:17 GMT
A small piece of advice
I've made a good fortune investing in stocks and shares. I've studied various processes and I've looked at the people who make their money by these processes. The things you need to know are
1) Is this process right for your emotional relationship with money? (trust me, you have one which only you will discover if you lose everything you have)
2) It is always easy to buy and hard to sell. Trust me, when you see your money halving it is easy to say "it will come back" and when you see your money doubling it is easy to say "it will go further". So never, ever invest without a clear plan to sell at a certain level and follow it.
Good luck, what do they say, "failing to plan is planning to fail"
BTW if you think TC is anything like Tesla I really would stop investing. Cash flows are incredibly different, markets are different, for goodness sake, does anyone even know who TC's CEO is?
The CEO is Peter Fankhauser and he has been working for TC for 20 years. What's wrong with him?
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 10:53:48 GMT
A small piece of advice
I've made a good fortune investing in stocks and shares. I've studied various processes and I've looked at the people who make their money by these processes. The things you need to know are
1) Is this process right for your emotional relationship with money? (trust me, you have one which only you will discover if you lose everything you have)
2) It is always easy to buy and hard to sell. Trust me, when you see your money halving it is easy to say "it will come back" and when you see your money doubling it is easy to say "it will go further". So never, ever invest without a clear plan to sell at a certain level and follow it.
Good luck, what do they say, "failing to plan is planning to fail"
BTW if you think TC is anything like Tesla I really would stop investing. Cash flows are incredibly different, markets are different, for goodness sake, does anyone even know who TC's CEO is?
The CEO is Peter Fankhauser and he has been working for TC for 20 years. What's wrong with him? I don't want to get into specifics as I have not researched him or the business. But I am not really fond of the travel sector especially considering this business with Iran which will only keep pushing up oil prices which will make air travel more expensive and result in car owners having less money in their pocket.
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 10:55:28 GMT
But if you really want to invest in Thomas cook good luck to you. I am thinking about Vodafone.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on May 20, 2019 11:34:24 GMT
Anybody fancy Huawei shares after Google’s announcement.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2019 11:34:40 GMT
The CEO is Peter Fankhauser and he has been working for TC for 20 years. What's wrong with him? No idea, you have either missed the point or I failed to explain it effectively.
Tesla is unlike TC in a number of ways including:
that PF does not bring any instant shine or marketing to a tired old business that has lost its way in a highly competitive market. TC has a big debt pile because it is an annual cyclical business which it is struggling to service despite debt being the cheapest I've known in the past 60 years. Its only solution to having an un-mangeable debt is to sell off its one cash generator. Now call me old fashioned, but selling your one cash generator when you have regularly failed to forecast debt year after year is only going to end badly. I assume this is an attempt to get someone else to buy the mess. "Betting the farm" comes to mind.
Tesla has a famous money maker as its boss, it is disrupting a mature market by using technology and as such actually uses its cash pile for something interesting and world changing. Its business is not annual cyclical.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on May 20, 2019 11:52:42 GMT
cwah have you seen the thread by gravitykillz on the equities forum here ? (http://p2pindependentforum.com/post/327494/thread). I'm not sure gravitykillz experience with special sits is any better than yours. Your buying of Thomas Cook and gravitykillz buying of Metro Bank are both gambling punts. I agree there is gambling there. I wouldn't bet on metrobank because I haven't looked enough into its account or market. But Thomas Cook has some unique value proposition I'm betting my shirt on it will stay on the market.
There is always this risk, that it'll go under administration because their balance sheet dried up. But that's not going to happen before winter as summer is the time they make money. I'll take my loss at this stage if not sorted out I sense English is not your first language so I'm hoping that you don't really have everything riding on this - or anything remotely like everything - and you actually have many, many 'shirts' available to you should this not work out. I'm in the 'pessimistic' camp, and don't feel this opportunity warrants a shirt. Maybe a shirt button, at best, but only because I have plenty of shirts - and they mostly have spare buttons securely attached, too!
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 20, 2019 14:17:29 GMT
I agree there is gambling there. I wouldn't bet on metrobank because I haven't looked enough into its account or market. But Thomas Cook has some unique value proposition I'm betting my shirt on it will stay on the market.
There is always this risk, that it'll go under administration because their balance sheet dried up. But that's not going to happen before winter as summer is the time they make money. I'll take my loss at this stage if not sorted out I sense English is not your first language so I'm hoping that you don't really have everything riding on this - or anything remotely like everything - and you actually have many, many 'shirts' available to you should this not work out. I'm in the 'pessimistic' camp, and don't feel this opportunity warrants a shirt. Maybe a shirt button, at best, but only because I have plenty of shirts - and they mostly have spare buttons securely attached, too! I meant I bet a big chunk of money which is £5k. It's not my life saving but it's a big chunk. Hopefully it won't be lost. For now I'm at -30% from my purchase point at £14p which is quite dreadful But worse is to sell on the way down and buy on the way up. There seems to be a general down trend today due to trade tension. So hopefully it will go back soon. What is PF by the way?
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on May 20, 2019 15:13:00 GMT
I think not a 'what', but a 'who' -- Peter Fankhauser, perhaps?
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Post by gaspilot on May 20, 2019 17:13:52 GMT
Why do you think it will go to £0? It has debt but the fundamental holiday market is here to stay and they have a good position as recognised brand. "Thomas Cook shares sink as Citi warns stock could hit zero" article here
I think there's a good chance they'll go bust because I was due to fly with Monarch a few days after they went bust and am due to fly with Thomas Cook in June. Perhaps the climate change God is trying to stop me flying?
I've got two holidays booked - one with the family and one with some friends. Both with TC flights. The flights are booked with intermediaries, Lastminute.com (flights only) and Olympic (package). Does this make any difference if they go bust as opposed to booking direct with the airline? I believe I'd get the costs back as I've paid with a credit card but I really need the flights.
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 17:45:22 GMT
"Thomas Cook shares sink as Citi warns stock could hit zero" article here
I think there's a good chance they'll go bust because I was due to fly with Monarch a few days after they went bust and am due to fly with Thomas Cook in June. Perhaps the climate change God is trying to stop me flying?
I've got two holidays booked - one with the family and one with some friends. Both with TC flights. The flights are booked with intermediaries, Lastminute.com (flights only) and Olympic (package). Does this make any difference if they go bust as opposed to booking direct with the airline? I believe I'd get the costs back as I've paid with a credit card but I really need the flights. I would buy some decent travel insurance just in case.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 20, 2019 17:46:54 GMT
"Thomas Cook shares sink as Citi warns stock could hit zero" article here
I think there's a good chance they'll go bust because I was due to fly with Monarch a few days after they went bust and am due to fly with Thomas Cook in June. Perhaps the climate change God is trying to stop me flying?
I've got two holidays booked - one with the family and one with some friends. Both with TC flights. The flights are booked with intermediaries, Lastminute.com (flights only) and Olympic (package). Does this make any difference if they go bust as opposed to booking direct with the airline? I believe I'd get the costs back as I've paid with a credit card but I really need the flights. If your package goes t*ts up you will get the cost of the package refunded. If the flight only deal goes the same way (and you are left stranded in the UK) you will be able to recover the cost of the flights, but not consequential costs such as hotels, car hire or trips that were booked seperately.
If you pay with a credit card the CC company has joint liability, so even if you use your CC to book direct with the airline (and they go bust) you will still get the cost of the flights back.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on May 20, 2019 18:11:25 GMT
If you pay with a credit card the CC company has joint liability, so even if you use your CC to book direct with the airline (and they go bust) you will still get the cost of the flights back.
...Except if the flights-only transaction you've made is under £100, not impossible in this day and age of independent budget travel....full MSE guide here
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 21, 2019 16:25:56 GMT
70% of their hotel capacity already booked and opening 7 more by the end of year: www.ft.com/content/06e6e88a-7bbb-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560So they are pursuing similar strategy to Tui, which is to move away from high competition/low margin that is to sell package holiday, but instead to focus on high margin assets which are Hotels or Cruises to generate cash. Sounds like a good start
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2019 16:32:57 GMT
They are following the same strategy as their biggest competitor, in a highly competitive market where there are already a bunch of companies sitting in the higher margin zone. I feel like the guy pointing out the obvious, but what exactly is their competitive advantage?
Finally, 70% is usually the point at which these companies break even, so if by mid-May they haven't hit 70% I would be amazed.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 21, 2019 16:46:21 GMT
They are following the same strategy as their biggest competitor, in a highly competitive market where there are already a bunch of companies sitting in the higher margin zone. I feel like the guy pointing out the obvious, but what exactly is their competitive advantage?
Finally, 70% is usually the point at which these companies break even, so if by mid-May they haven't hit 70% I would be amazed. I'd say that by moving to a different market, they are taking much less risk due to harder level of entry (need to own hotel) and they won't get killed by small online sellers. Probably not much advantage vs Tui or other hotel groups. But at least the competition is way more level and margin should be preserved.
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