cwah
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Post by cwah on May 22, 2019 23:57:02 GMT
I'd like to share insights and feedback about stock. I don't know other forum to do that so I put it here. Just tell me if it's inappropriate. My highlightI'm have bought shares in the Bank of Georgia (BGEO) and I'm going to be long on it. Its provides loans to retail and commercial business at a much higher rate than in the UK, with a net profit of 102M GEL (£29M) for the first quarter. So with a market cap of £825M, it has a very attractive PE ratio of 7.11. It also has an amazing ROE of 20% which is much better than most business in the UK. The Georgian economy is growing, and they need more and more capital to create business. Their loan book has increased by 20% and their profit by 1.8% (averaged) each quarter. The amount of bad debt are low at (3%), the gel currency is stable and interest rate charged to customers are much higher than in the uk (12%) which increase profit. It does look like an undervalued stock, which even if it doesn't grow would give a healthy dividend of 4%. But considering the flourishing Georgian economy and current loan book growth around 20%/year, it's likely it'll worth more over time. Sounds like a stock to get, do you agree? ps: their Q1 2019 report here: bankofgeorgiagroup.com/storage/earnings/Bank%20of%20Georgia%20Group%20PLC%201Q19%20Results%20Presentation.pdf |
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Post by gravitykillz on May 23, 2019 4:45:07 GMT
Hmmm. I agree. But it could a while. Providing there a no major economic shocks.
But you are playing a dangerous game. Hope you are gambling with money you can afford to lose.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 6:34:29 GMT
Hmmm. I agree. But it could a while. Providing there a no major economic shocks. But you are playing a dangerous game. Hope you are gambling with money you can afford to lose. Why is it a dangerous game? Economic shock can happen in any country
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macq
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Post by macq on May 23, 2019 6:45:54 GMT
As to your question on forums (and the randomness of the advice on them in making a decision) there is always the savings and investment forum on MSE or moneyforums.citywire.co.uk which maybe worth a look
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travolta
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Post by travolta on May 23, 2019 7:09:02 GMT
I spent time (and money) there last month. Interesting place . Seems to me the labour force is chasing the wrong goals. Towns full of unemployed and deserted land. The break up of the collectives has left a lot of land ownership in dispute but there is still a lot available, cheap and neglected. Great place to pick up a little dacha and land for low four figures, but you would have to be there full time to keep the neighbours off. Its still very much: my pig is dead, so yours will die too. If I was 20years younger I would buy in .They fired the entire police force a few years ago but corruption still rules . Depends on who owns the bank . I met the President ,,she was in the same hotel. Nice ,human but completely powerless. Keep an eye on it . Gold would be safer.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 7:34:30 GMT
I spent time (and money) there last month. Interesting place . Seems to me the labour force is chasing the wrong goals. Towns full of unemployed and deserted land. The break up of the collectives has left a lot of land ownership in dispute but there is still a lot available, cheap and neglected. Great place to pick up a little dacha and land for low four figures, but you would have to be there full time to keep the neighbours off. Its still very much: my pig is dead, so yours will die too. If I was 20years younger I would buy in .They fired the entire police force a few years ago but corruption still rules . Depends on who owns the bank . I met the President ,,she was in the same hotel. Nice ,human but completely powerless. Keep an eye on it . Gold would be safer. Georgia has 5% GDP growth YoY and still low inflation of 3%: www.adb.org/countries/georgia/economy#tabs-0-0If it was that bad, shouldn't their economy shrink or stagnate?
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Mike
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Post by Mike on May 23, 2019 9:47:28 GMT
Do I remember a 'from our correspondent in Tbilisi' article in Private Eye recently? Nevertheless, I too was there only earlier this month on holidays - I got the impression it's on the up. Things are cheap (in £) but it doesn't "feel" cheap (to the extent that somewhere like India or China does - with the exception of cars perhaps). Quality of life seems pretty high; they eat loads of meat and drink loads of wine! It's very fertile, too - main risks are that it's invaded (again, again) or foreign businesses take over and extract the wealth. There is a chance I am "20years younger" than travolta (!) and am thinking of buying in to the country in some form. Either way, it makes a very good holiday - the wine & food are fantastic; while the scenery and walking options in the North hard to beat in Europe-proper. Main issue is lack of flights to Western Europe (only a handful/week to London). |
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 23, 2019 11:32:06 GMT
I did a double-take. Surely, surely, he must mean the state of Georgia, USA...? Not the wild east, former Soviet...? Good luck, cwah. You really are going to need it. Keep us posted. |
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macq
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Post by macq on May 23, 2019 12:32:38 GMT
I did a double-take. Surely, surely, he must mean the state of Georgia, USA...? Not the wild east, former Soviet...? Good luck, cwah . You really are going to need it. Keep us posted. Most of the time Georgia is in the list's of the poorest states in the US along with the South in general so may not be a good back up plan 
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 12:59:50 GMT
Sounds like a stock to get, do you agree?
First Thomas Cook, now this ? Georgia for heavens sake ? Have you even ever been there let alone know the first thing about the local economy to merit piling into a bank shares ?!?
To be perfectly blunt with you, I've read your posts both here and on the Thomas Cook thread.
Nothing has shown me you have the background knowledge to undertake these high risk trades. Just the way you abuse the PE ratio tells me more than enough.... you don't even have the basic clue.
Seriously. Stop now before you get badly burnt. I can see this all ending in tears.
By all means invest in the stockmarket if that's what you want to do, but do yourself a favour and stick to more sensible stocks. Then for the high-risk stuff, (a) go buy some proper academic books on the markets and (b) spend some time doing paper-trading
I'm sorry for the tough-love cwah , but someone had to tell you liek it is and I guess that had to be me ! Ok, here's the proper calculation of the PE ratio, which is close to what I had: - £29M as 1st quarter profit = £116M full year estimated net profit. Number I've used as their profit decreased on Q1 2019 (due to new regulation) for a safer side. - Earning per share = £116M / 47.9M share = £2.42/share - PE ratio = £16.77/£2.42 = 6.92. So it's quite close and I used price to earning ratio is is not the same but very similar! I haven't been to Georgia, but here are some good point: - The GDP has been growing and should continue to grow (https://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks/Georgia) - Inflation used to be higher (6%) and now is stabilising at 3% and should keep doing so - It is a very attractive area for tourism and it should keep growing this side due to its good weather - Public debt is low - It has an attractive fiscal environment for business (lower tax rate) And yes the bad points are that there are still a majority of the population under poverty, salary are low, un-employment is high. That's why there is a strong urbanisation toward the capital Tbilisi in Georgia. But it's going toward a good trend and yes there can be fragilised if the $ suddently increase (they are de-dolarising) or if investment dries up. I actually expect it to have similar change to its neighbour (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary...) which all have good GDP growth in recent years. I've been in various capital (Warsaw, Prague, Budapest) and they all have significantly evolved with cost of living which increased a lot. Mainly due to tourism! That's because they are currently still in a poor situation that there are more growth!! Don't you agree? And what book do you recommend?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 23, 2019 13:02:34 GMT
I did a double-take. Surely, surely, he must mean the state of Georgia, USA...? Not the wild east, former Soviet...? Good luck, cwah . You really are going to need it. Keep us posted. Most of the time Georgia is in the list's of the poorest states in the US along with the South in general so may not be a good back up plan Sure, but...
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 14:48:47 GMT
I'm in Latvia today. I used to know a high earner who only ever invested in "dogs", (small mkt share of flat lining mkt) when their share price fell.
He thought his strategy was brilliant, but he never kept a log of his results and his income was way bigger than his punts.
So keep a log and see how you do.
For me, if I was going to follow this strategy I'd run it on paper for 6 months first.
Good luck. Not for me, but I guess you expected that.
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Post by davee39 on May 23, 2019 15:39:25 GMT
Dear Mr Cwah Sir, Please be highly honored to esteemed be helping me with moving of great funds from late Uncle inheritance to the Uk. Please be seen sending me $1000 as fees and I will be contacting you further....
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 17:40:28 GMT
If you want a coming deal then look at FANUY. Buy $16.25 sell at $18.75 when trump loses the trade war. No warranties.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 17:45:57 GMT
If you want a coming deal then look at FANUY. Buy $16.25 sell at $18.75 when trump loses the trade war. No warranties. What's special about this stock? For trade war I've been pilling half of my net worth into Vanguard US treasury bonds (VUTY) and it is currently my best performing asset so far.
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