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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 17:53:56 GMT
If you want a coming deal then look at FANUY. Buy $16.25 sell at $18.75 when trump loses the trade war. No warranties.
More seriously I'd not touch the bank of Georgia with a punt pole. In a former life I traded world wide with the more interesting of the world's countries. I only dealt with banks who performed to a certain std. Georgia wasn't one of them. I'd not risk my company's money with them...
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 18:22:57 GMT
FANUY....it's the future, you work it out.
Books. I'd start with Naked Trader just to get a flavour of the variables. Don't follow his advice. Research: think about an annual stockopedia membership. Business, well an MBA would help, if not look at MOOCs for a free business course. Focus on cashflow and ROCE. Forget profit which is a selectable variable.
Metro bank needs more cash after the £300m and it needs a senior director resignation, complete cockup and a head must roll.
What annual, 3 & 5 year on year did you get on the Vanguard?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 18:59:22 GMT
FANUY....it's the future, you work it out. Books. I'd start with Naked Trader just to get a flavour of the variables. Don't follow his advice. Research: think about an annual stockopedia membership. Business, well an MBA would help, if not look at MOOCs for a free business course. Focus on cashflow and ROCE. Forget profit which is a selectable variable. Metro bank needs more cash after the £300m and it needs a senior director resignation, complete cockup and a head must roll. What annual, 3 & 5 year on year did you get on the Vanguard? Thanks. I've only pilled it up few weeks ago with all these brexit issues and trade war fear, it sounds like a good temporary place to be. The pound getting beaten and dollar getting stronger makes it both a safe place to store cash and benefit from its higher value until I find opportunities to buy something else. I'm up 5% in a few weeks from safe bonds so its very good compared to my other investments!! I've been to the MOOC website but I'm not clear which course I should look for? Is there something to learn how to value stocks? And I've explained why I think BGEO is good. The PE is good around 7. But the ROE as well over 20%, which is a similar metric to ROCE. The business has been growing consistently over the years and georgian economy is also growing. So why do you say it's something you'd never touch? It also has a buy recommendations from most brokers who reviewed the stock: www.stockomendation.com/companies/bgeo-bgeo-group/stock-tips
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 19:10:26 GMT
Return on equity is nothing, nothing, to do with return on capital employed.
A few weeks..... Look back, it should be easy to do, what are the year, the three year and the 5 year returns?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 23, 2019 20:30:02 GMT
Return on equity is nothing, nothing, to do with return on capital employed. A few weeks..... Look back, it should be easy to do, what are the year, the three year and the 5 year returns? For Vuty, I know it's not supposed to be a grow asset so i don't expect it to generate money over the long term. But the number are 4.79% return over the year and 2.75% over 3 years. And it didn't exist before so nothing for 5 years. It's a nice safeguard place which provided good protection when time are uncertain and can sometime generate yield (by luck) Otherwise, to answer you question on ROCE, reusing the Q1 2019 report: bankofgeorgiagroup.com/storage/earnings/Bank%20of%20Georgia%20Group%20PLC%201Q19%20Results%20Presentation.pdfNet profit: 407,888 (101,972GEL *4) Total equity: 1,918,781 Total capital employed (equity + liability): 15,054,570 So ROE = 21.25% ROCE = 2.7% (407,888/15,054,570) But a large chunck of its liability is from customer deposit. (8M). But as a bank, I suppose the ROCE is supposed to be low as they safeguard load of customer deposit
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 15:03:45 GMT
Have a look at how other banks perform. Think about who key share holders of bank of Georgia and surf their names on Google.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 24, 2019 15:37:40 GMT
Have a look at how other banks perform. Think about who key share holders of bank of Georgia and surf their names on Google. There are only 2 key players in the lending area which control 70% of the market share. Bank of Georgia (BGEO) who control 30% and TBC who controls 40%. They both have very similar balance sheet, income and even strategy. I've been hesitating between the 2 and really I could as well buy TBC without too much problem. The penetration of banking in Georgian population is low and they both still have space to grow. The good thing is that in this market the profit is good due to low penetration, low competition and GDP growth. I decided to pick BGEO because I liked their focus (TBC buy other type of assets such as e-commerce) and their directors aren't being investigated for tax avoidance.. The key shareholders are JSC Georgia Capital (20%) and Standard Life Aberdeen (4%) which are both investment funds. The former was actual BGEO before they split in 2018 (That's why you would see a massive drop of share value at that time) into 3 separate entity: Bank of Georgia, Georgia Capital and Georgia Health. I had a look at the 2 others are they are not as attractive as BGEO so I wouldn't invest in them. I'm looking forward in a couple of years to see how either their earning per share would increase from £2.42/share with 20+% ROE and 20% loans value increase per year. I may sell if the share price is over £24.00 or if I find better grow stock (20%+ ROE, 10%+ profit increase, PE ratio<7, strong market position.)
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 19:48:25 GMT
You've asked for my opinion. It would be to cash out now. 10 mins googling confirmed my fears.
I'm not a financial advisor and this is not advice.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 24, 2019 20:03:52 GMT
You've asked for my opinion. It would be to cash out now. 10 mins googling confirmed my fears. I'm not a financial advisor and this is not advice. Can you just share more than just fear and 10 min googling? I spent way more than 10 min and couldn't find anything to bring me fear?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 24, 2019 22:47:59 GMT
The key shareholders are JSC Georgia Capital (20%) and Standard Life Aberdeen (4%) which are both investment funds.
Come on cwah , don't be silly.
"are both investment funds"
Right. So. Sit back and think what that tells you.
Yes, exactly a bit fat NOTHING.
I already told you on the before on here. Don't waste your time "reading-into" institutional ownership. ESPECIALLY when it concerns funds or brokerage nominee accounts.
Go back and read what I told you about funds, namely the fact that they have MANDATES
As a fund manager, your investible universe is defined by your MANDATE.
If you are a large fund company like Standard Life, you most likely have Emerging Markets funds, which means your investible universe necessarily includes the likes of Georgia.
To spell it out to you: The fact that a funds holds a stock does not reflect an investment decision. It reflects a mandate.
I agree with you. I was simply answer @bobo question about thinking on who are the key shareholders. It sounds like clue are given to find out why this stock should be feared but I can't find out why
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corto
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Post by corto on May 24, 2019 22:50:01 GMT
The key shareholders are JSC Georgia Capital (20%) and Standard Life Aberdeen (4%) which are both investment funds.
Come on cwah , don't be silly.
"are both investment funds"
Right. So. Sit back and think what that tells you.
Yes, exactly a bit fat NOTHING.
I already told you on the before on here. Don't waste your time "reading-into" institutional ownership. ESPECIALLY when it concerns funds or brokerage nominee accounts.
Go back and read what I told you about funds, namely the fact that they have MANDATES
As a fund manager, your investible universe is defined by your MANDATE.
If you are a large fund company like Standard Life, you most likely have Emerging Markets funds, which means your investible universe necessarily includes the likes of Georgia.
To spell it out to you: The fact that a funds holds a stock does not reflect an investment decision. It reflects a mandate.
not convincing
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on May 25, 2019 9:46:58 GMT
I agree with you. I was simply answer @bobo question about thinking on who are the key shareholders. It sounds like clue are given to find out why this stock should be feared but I can't find out why Sometimes there are no specific 'clues' that point to why a stock should be 'feared' beyond the fact that there aren't sufficient 'clues' that point to why a stock should not be 'feared'.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2019 12:34:26 GMT
You've asked for my opinion. It would be to cash out now. 10 mins googling confirmed my fears. I'm not a financial advisor and this is not advice. Can you just share more than just fear and 10 min googling? I spent way more than 10 min and couldn't find anything to bring me fear? Bad debt and bad debt provisions is my key concern, my second is to do with asset ownership law in the country. It looks like the bank keeps failing to make sufficient provisions for bad debts. I can't talk about other issues but start adding "dodgy" to your Google searches.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2019 12:38:47 GMT
As a general rule when doing DD add "court" "case" "administration" "bankruptcy" "tribunal" "dodgy" to searches. Not sure fire winner but you get interesting stories.
Btw I never aim to choose a share, I am to exclude a share. Big mental difference.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on May 25, 2019 14:32:17 GMT
Hornswoggling
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