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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 15, 2014 12:20:20 GMT
I thought I'd share this, since I've collected it anyway .. basically shows the secondary market buyer rate trend (arrived at by looking at the buyer rate for part #500) over time .. Looks to me like C-s have hit the ceiling some time ago. In all cases the rates are way above MBRs for the risk band. The £64 question, of course, is where they head next! 8>. There is obviously some (but not perfect) correlation with primary market rates, which FC publish. I have edited out the glitch when the SM was broken and >50% of the parts listed were not actually showing up .. that put a rather obvious dip in the graph. Going forward I think I'll collect the top rate too, although that has a higher deviation .. a few parts of a dud loan sold at a fat discount will move it a long way, whereas part # 500 is better (but not completely) insulated from that sort of noise.  |
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markr
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Post by markr on Oct 15, 2014 13:14:50 GMT
Fascinating info, thanks for compiling it.
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sl125
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Post by sl125 on Oct 15, 2014 15:47:27 GMT
That's interesting, seeing it represented graphically. I do something similar in order to determine what my minimum bid rate should be on the primary market, taking into account premium charged as well (my idea being, that if I want to buy something on the primary market, I want to know that I have a reasonable expectation of being able to resell it on the secondary market should I need to liquidate my holdings).
One other interesting analysis for those regular secondary market sellers is to graphically show the trend for what rates people are actually buying your loan parts at. ie. although the 500th loan part on the secondary market may be at x%, if the first 100 parts aren't shifting that fast, then it becomes moot what the 500th loan part is up for sale at.
For example, I've noticed that those loans I hold at C and C- are becoming increasingly slow to sell even at high rates (eg. 13.5% for C, and 14% for C-). This doesn't bother me so much, as the interest accruing at those rates offsets the opportunity cost of not selling them quickly.
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sl125
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Post by sl125 on Oct 15, 2014 15:51:55 GMT
Whilst we're on the topic of secondary market buyer rates: I notice a huge volume of loan parts at 3% premium with buyer rates less than 7% (some as low as 4%). Does anyone actually buy these? (or rather, would anyone actually admit to buying these?)
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 15, 2014 15:59:52 GMT
I don't really sell enough to get good statistics based on my sales alone, but using the 500th loan part as a target (sell cheaper if you want to shift something, more expensive if you are happy to hold) seems to work, long term. Obviously the top 500 at any time is dominated by a handful of newish loans with maybe 50-100 parts for sale in each (I should have added I only look at parts of £100 or less .. there are frequently odd parts at silly rates at even sillier sizes - £1400 a part .. of course there are not MANY of those, but they'd bend the top rate a lot, not having much impact on the top 500 though).
Yes, it's hard to sell C- or Cs at 'a stunning rate', given what that primary market rate caps are set at .. whereas it's quite possible to pick up an A+ that you can't sell for anything except a stunning rate (given the cap on markup), which will then fly off the shelves in seconds should you wish to unload it.
Property loans have had little impact, but then they'd have to be 12 month at a huge discount, to stand any chance of making the top 500.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 15, 2014 16:05:00 GMT
Whilst we're on the topic of secondary market buyer rates: I notice a huge volume of loan parts at 3% premium with buyer rates less than 7% (some as low as 4%). Does anyone actually buy these? (or rather, would anyone actually admit to buying these?) Not I, although I admit to having been suckered at least once, early on, when I clicked a loan, saw a good top rate on secondary market parts, and clicked on the top part, without noticing that between looking at the loan, and getting the list of parts, the top part had gone, and I was now buying a rather less tasty offering. 8<. My rationale for the 3% nonsense offerings is either that someone just lists everything at 3% markup and hopes for a miracle, or else someone is running 'sales by dutch auction' and the 3% will become 2.9% then 2.8% etc, assuming no takers. It's hard to check that, since you can't (afaik) deduce seller or loan part number, from the offering, so you can't track a unique part from day to day (or month to month), or even parts from one seller. p.s. is it just me, or is the 'available funds' number as shown on the 'loan parts' (secondary market) page really out of kilter with the 'available funds' number shown every place else on the site? I mean like ALWAYS. ??
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 15, 2014 16:14:25 GMT
Whilst we're on the topic of secondary market buyer rates: I notice a huge volume of loan parts at 3% premium with buyer rates less than 7% (some as low as 4%). Does anyone actually buy these? (or rather, would anyone actually admit to buying these?) Probably more than would be the case if the default sort order were "buyer rate" rather than "risk band", ensuring that buyers always see the best priced loan parts first unless they explicitly choose otherwise... As things stand it can be confusing, as when you first arrive on the loan parts page, the parts are sorted by buyer rate, but the option is set to sort by risk band, so changing any option results in getting a "random" (or more precisely "arbitrary") selection of A+ loan parts showing on the screen (or of whichever risk band you've selected in the other options). I wouldn't be surprised if loan parts get mistakenly bought by people who've initially observed that "the best" loan parts are at the top, and fail to double-check this was still the case after filtering the selection down. I've "almost" done it sometimes.
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mikeb
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Post by mikeb on Oct 15, 2014 17:58:46 GMT
My rationale for the 3% nonsense offerings is either that someone just lists everything at 3% markup and hopes for a miracle, or else someone is running 'sales by dutch auction' and the 3% will become 2.9% then 2.8% etc, assuming no takers Whaddya mean, "or" ?? I do both. Miracles happen! Whilst we're on the topic of secondary market buyer rates: I notice a huge volume of loan parts at 3% premium with buyer rates less than 7% (some as low as 4%). Does anyone actually buy these? (or rather, would anyone actually admit to buying these?) Looking through my sold loan parts, I see B rated at buyer rates of 4%, C at 4.8%, C- at 8.1% as my "low water" marks. No I don't know how it happens. Just glad it does!
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Post by pepperpot on Oct 15, 2014 18:56:01 GMT
My rationale for the 3% nonsense offerings is either that someone just lists everything at 3% markup and hopes for a miracle, or else someone is running 'sales by dutch auction' and the 3% will become 2.9% then 2.8% etc, assuming no takers Whaddya mean, "or" ?? I do both. Miracles happen! Whilst we're on the topic of secondary market buyer rates: I notice a huge volume of loan parts at 3% premium with buyer rates less than 7% (some as low as 4%). Does anyone actually buy these? (or rather, would anyone actually admit to buying these?) Looking through my sold loan parts, I see B rated at buyer rates of 4%, C at 4.8%, C- at 8.1% as my "low water" marks. No I don't know how it happens. Just glad it does! I've got C- sales at buyer rate of 7.3% and 7.5%  You beat me on the rest though with only 5.3% as my B highlight.
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baz657
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Post by baz657 on Oct 15, 2014 22:06:33 GMT
p.s. is it just me, or is the 'available funds' number as shown on the 'loan parts' (secondary market) page really out of kilter with the 'available funds' number shown every place else on the site? I mean like ALWAYS. ?? Not for me, not that I'd noticed and not right now even with several tabs open. I'll keep looking now though 
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 16, 2014 7:52:40 GMT
May be just a Firefox bug then .. What browser are you using?
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Post by pepperpot on Oct 16, 2014 8:42:17 GMT
I use FF and have the same issue, but it seems to be a time lag showing a figure anything upto a couple of hours old. The same thing can happen on the 'transfer out' page - a couple of weeks ago, Summary told me I have over 2k available, go to withdraw some only to be told I have £736 available to withdraw, huh? why can't I have the rest??
(Just to be clear I'm talking about the 'Available funds' at the top of the page not the 'Available balance' shown on the right when opening a 'loan parts for sale list')
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baz657
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Post by baz657 on Oct 16, 2014 15:38:34 GMT
FF 32.0.3 (currently downloading yet another update!) - Win 7 Pro 64 bit.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 16, 2014 18:57:07 GMT
Weird,i,'M on same browser and os, at least on this machine. As said above though, it does seem to be sometimes right, if things are a bit static.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Oct 17, 2014 11:21:04 GMT
One other interesting analysis for those regular secondary market sellers is to graphically show the trend for what rates people are actually buying your loan parts at. ie. although the 500th loan part on the secondary market may be at x%, if the first 100 parts aren't shifting that fast, then it becomes moot what the 500th loan part is up for sale at. I whumped up some data for As I've sold, then noticed that the property loans were probably affecting recent averages/trends, so I added Bs (which go back as far as As, but are free from Property, AFAIK) .. as I mentioned before though, I don't really sell enough parts to go drawing significant conclusions .. I bet B*z(in**) has a lot more data going even further back.. 
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