|
Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 26, 2019 13:32:51 GMT
The share price as a write is 201p. Clearly the FCAs new restrictions are biting sentiment. Perhaps the FCA are anti-capitalists?
|
|
|
Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 26, 2019 13:51:10 GMT
really angry as i type, share price now 193, fell 7p in 10 minutes, spread is 193-199, something is going on here
|
|
|
Post by Mr Smith on Jun 26, 2019 14:09:54 GMT
really angry as i type, share price now 193, fell 7p in 10 minutes, spread is 193-199, something is going on here Just saw this. Share price down over half since march and 56% from peak. The more I read about the current economic state of the country, Europe and the world at general the more I worry about FC. Massive property bubbles all round the world, countries saturated in debt, property speculators going all in thanks to easy money. Let's face it, it's not going to end well. Im due to get the next tranche of my cash out at the start of August, I'll be glad when summer's here !!!
|
|
dorset
Member of DD Central
Posts: 281
Likes: 187
|
Post by dorset on Jun 26, 2019 17:26:38 GMT
Closed at 194.8p today at which my view yesterday of 150p by year end sounds positively bullish.
What's going on is that the market is realising that FC is running a flawed business model. Perhaps some investors are reading these blogs. If so look at the loan book. Of course FC do not pick up the tab on the default but each default underlies the flaw in the model.
As an aside I have had 52 defaults this half year to end June as against 52 for the whole of 2017 when I had upwards of 1650 loans. Explain that FC?
|
|
djay
Member of DD Central
Posts: 121
Likes: 87
|
Post by djay on Jun 26, 2019 18:51:12 GMT
Basically what has happened here is that the owners knew the model would have this limitation, so they IPOd it before really pushing the lending so that the metrics looked better to support the IPO valuation, and then they all sold their shares immediately upon IPO (there was no lock-up period) which is why the share price immediately tanked, and then they started pushing the loans hard and the business model limitations emerged and the share price tanked again. combined with FCA rules, I would be surprised if FC can make a profit. You can add to that paying the CEO and CFO millions without performance requirements or clawbacks whilst FC are making significant losses and performance has been very poor to say the least.
|
|
trevor
Member of DD Central
Posts: 555
Likes: 379
|
Post by trevor on Jun 26, 2019 19:16:51 GMT
What surprises me is although investors don't want the shares, FC have negotiated several 9 figure securitisation deals with major financial institutions.
|
|
reinvestor
Member of DD Central
Posts: 194
Likes: 224
|
Post by reinvestor on Jun 26, 2019 19:25:48 GMT
What surprises me is although investors don't want the shares, FC have negotiated several 9 figure securitisation deals with major financial institutions. Short termism by those selling, brokering and buying the securitised bundles of loans: FC: We need some cash, bundle up a load of these sh1te loans and find a buyer. Broker: I can make 5% by selling this junk to someone. Buyer: This looks like a great opportunity for the sales guys in our office to pump this out to someone and make a couple of quid or use it as a tax loss. None of the people involved in the chain will still be employed when the thing collapses. Seen it many times before in many different types of finance. The reason the share price is dropping is word has got out there that they are just lending to anyone. And I mean anyone.
|
|
trevor
Member of DD Central
Posts: 555
Likes: 379
|
Post by trevor on Jun 26, 2019 19:28:32 GMT
If a broker makes 5% then the buyer stands to make about 1% at best! I think this is FC's CFO dealing not direct withe institutions.
|
|
trevor
Member of DD Central
Posts: 555
Likes: 379
|
Post by trevor on Jun 26, 2019 19:32:38 GMT
dealing direct with institutions
|
|
|
Post by Mr Smith on Jun 28, 2019 9:26:07 GMT
There you are if you had taken notice of my "shorting" pearls of wisdom on the 13th June you would now have pocketed 12.5% after only two weeks. IMO possibility of 150p per share by year end or sooner. Heading that way 186.70 GBX −1.50 (0.80%)
|
|
|
Post by Mr Smith on Jun 28, 2019 9:26:34 GMT
really angry as i type, share price now 193, fell 7p in 10 minutes, spread is 193-199, something is going on here You must be spitting feathers now !!! 186.70 GBX −1.50 (0.80%)
|
|
|
Post by shanghaiscouse on Jun 28, 2019 12:36:13 GMT
I just sold at 183, an absolute effing disaster but i could only see it continuing to go down. FC as an investment is a busted flush. I lost 3,000 on a 5,000 investment in the IPO. I have serious questions about just what the hell has been going on there. They need to seriously rethink their model because at the moment they are not charging enough to make a profit, they have to stop chasing loans at any cost.
|
|
djay
Member of DD Central
Posts: 121
Likes: 87
|
Post by djay on Jun 28, 2019 13:09:29 GMT
I just sold at 183, an absolute effing disaster but i could only see it continuing to go down. FC as an investment is a busted flush. I lost 3,000 on a 5,000 investment in the IPO. I have serious questions about just what the hell has been going on there. They need to seriously rethink their model because at the moment they are not charging enough to make a profit, they have to stop chasing loans at any cost. I think you should be asking questions about how they are spending money rather than income along with the hamster wheel model, which means income will never really cover the costs of generating income. The CEO and CFO pay are a good starting point, high pay and enormous bonuses without setting performance benchmarks or serious claw back mechanisms. It was alway a recipe for disaster.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,805
Likes: 1,087
|
Post by ashtondav on Jun 28, 2019 15:45:29 GMT
I just sold at 183, an absolute effing disaster but i could only see it continuing to go down. FC as an investment is a busted flush. I lost 3,000 on a 5,000 investment in the IPO. I have serious questions about just what the hell has been going on there. They need to seriously rethink their model because at the moment they are not charging enough to make a profit, they have to stop chasing loans at any cost. Well according to them they have stopped chasing . Started 1st quarter this year. The trouble is the 2017/2018 cohorts which the sellers on this board and the IT can’t sell easily. the FC model is no different from many banks and is very cyclical.
|
|
c88dnf
Member of DD Central
Posts: 364
Likes: 266
|
Post by c88dnf on Jun 28, 2019 16:04:14 GMT
My point is that it is a very unhealthy set of incentives. The amount of money they make is proportionate to the amount of loans they can write. If a loan goes bad they don't take a capital loss. Its very different to a bank. I don't think I am anti-capitalist, just growing more anti- this particular business model which has a heightened moral hazard. I have several loans in my portfolio which clearly should never have been made, the worse being a TV repair company in Scotland that operates out of literally a shack but was given £350,000 in July, only to go into liquidation in October. No lender who had their own capital at risk would ever have lent so much without even visiting the borrower. And that is not an isolated case. For those of us once exposed to the "highly experienced property team" and their competence at judging borrowers' bona fides, it's deja vu all over again. I'm just amazed and saddened anyone invested in FC shares. Look at their annual reports and the history of losses.
|
|