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Post by shanghaiscouse on Feb 5, 2020 10:00:58 GMT
Not sure what they can do to "pull something out of the hat", for them that generally means lowering lending standards even further, not sure they can go any lower!
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reinvestor
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Post by reinvestor on Feb 6, 2020 10:19:57 GMT
Down 8.5% this morning to 76p
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Feb 6, 2020 13:26:33 GMT
short it baby short it - would not be surprised if it went towards 50p
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pip
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Post by pip on Feb 6, 2020 13:37:12 GMT
Not sure what they can do to "pull something out of the hat", for them that generally means lowering lending standards even further, not sure they can go any lower! I suggest that FC taking ownership on resolving the current expectation gap consumers had between how they thought they were protected against platform failure and the reality would be a start. What investors thought - Platform fails, there is ring fenced money to manage the loan book to be run down exactly as before with no impact on investors. Reality - Absolute chaos, complete ambiguity as to what investors legal status is, paralysis in investors receiving any money, administrators taking their fees to manage administration from investors proceeds.... Outcome has been that platform risk has now ballooned to the top of p2p investor concerns and based on the current mood music many are taking the attitude that in the current environment where P2P actual returns are now 3-5% the risk vs reward doesn't add up, when if a platform fails it looks like a 100% loss is very possible, at least for a considerable length of time. This turns into a downward cycle, the less confidence investors have then the less they will invest and the more likely it is that platforms fail. I would suggest FC should take the initiative to set up a legal entity that is appropriately funded or has insurance in place to run FC in the event of failure and also to issue legal advice to assure investors that in the event of default the proceeds of loans are legally investors and ring-fenced from administrators. Until then I will be giving all P2P a miss. There is still the question of whether FC will ever be profitable, I suspect it can be but will be a long time and many bumps along the road.
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Post by Mr Smith on Feb 6, 2020 14:47:16 GMT
short it baby short it - would not be surprised if it want towards 50p 0pCorrected. Down to 70p.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Feb 6, 2020 17:52:57 GMT
Profits? ZOPA’s been around 15 years and profit on p2p is so distant it decided to become a bank instead.
pity, as I don’t think FC has the credibility now to get a banking licence.
We have yet to see any platform demonstrate it can operate a profitable business model.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Feb 6, 2020 18:49:37 GMT
Agreed. I think Assetz, with secured lending AND a PF is a platform that could survive and thrive. Especially as it has now got over those silly underdiversified accounts. In fact I'm considering the 30DAA for this years ISA.
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Post by shanghaiscouse on Feb 7, 2020 10:52:04 GMT
3-5%? I suggest this is highly optimistic. I am on 1.8% over 5 years. until you have fully liquidated, you have no idea what your return is. However, I'd like to ask, why do you think the 'platform risk' is higher? OK I can understand this in terms of they have X amount of cash they can burn through until it is curtains for them, but apart from that why do you think the platform itself is riskier? Has there been some disclosure about the legal status of the loans that I am not aware of? I would say that once the loans have gone into default, then your legal relationship with the loans change and you no longer own them, they are held for you on trust. I have not thought a lot about what that actually means if the platform were to stop trading but I suppose I should as I had also assumed they were ringfenced, but if they are owned by a trust with me as a beneficiary then I'm not sure.
(this was supposed to be in reply to pip)
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tjtl
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Post by tjtl on Feb 7, 2020 16:10:05 GMT
Only read the interview if you don't suffer from high blood pressure.
Some of the sentiments : Everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds. Only a few are unhappy with the new selling platform. Customer satisfaction is high. The share price collapse is nothing to do with the company's performance.
I have been an investor for three years- my published return is now 2%. Selling is glacial. By the time I take account of loans that aren't sellable I will be in negative territory- same as many of us I suspect. Just a hint of contrition, a slight apology, would help rather than this hubristic, self-satisfied PR piece.
Note the email out from Wellesley last evening- a much more balanced piece.
Funding Circle are an unmitigated shower.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Feb 7, 2020 16:28:24 GMT
I started to read it but gave up as I was needing a sick bag - this reads like a parody of a PR flunkie told what to say regardless of reality! Well I am glad she is so confident over what is clearly an impending disaster - I am even more glad I ditched FC and got 99% of my money out!
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Feb 7, 2020 17:39:16 GMT
I don't see how FCH can survive as a plc.
Valued at £1.5bn at the IPO, which raised £300m, now capitalised at a mere £260m
In my experience as an investor, once a publicly quoted company loses 75% of its share price it's usually game over. May take a while, of course.
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Post by nooneere on Feb 7, 2020 21:40:25 GMT
I don't see how FCH can survive as a plc.
Valued at £1.5bn at the IPO, which raised £300m, now capitalised at a mere £260m
In my experience as an investor, once a publicly quoted company loses 75% of its share price it's usually game over. May take a while, of course.
Such a collapse in the share price is dangerous for the CEO and the company's independence, for sure, but I agree with those who think FCH has too much AUM and too much access to capital for the simple collapse into administration we have seen with other P2P failures. As the share price continues to fall, there must be major shareholders thinking of ejecting the CEO, and there must be corporate vultures (e.g. private equity) calculating whether they can make this loanbook profitable with a different business model.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Feb 8, 2020 11:49:17 GMT
I don't see how FCH can survive as a plc.
Valued at £1.5bn at the IPO, which raised £300m, now capitalised at a mere £260m
In my experience as an investor, once a publicly quoted company loses 75% of its share price it's usually game over. May take a while, of course.
Such a collapse in the share price is dangerous for the CEO and the company's independence, for sure, but I agree with those who think FCH has too much AUM and too much access to capital for the simple collapse into administration we have seen with other P2P failures. As the share price continues to fall, there must be major shareholders thinking of ejecting the CEO, and there must be corporate vultures (e.g. private equity) calculating whether they can make this loanbook profitable with a different business model. The CEO has already pressed the ejector button and the IPO was about returning private equity investment so I don't see them deciding to buy it back again any time soon.
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Post by nooneere on Feb 8, 2020 12:25:53 GMT
Such a collapse in the share price is dangerous for the CEO and the company's independence, for sure, but I agree with those who think FCH has too much AUM and too much access to capital for the simple collapse into administration we have seen with other P2P failures. As the share price continues to fall, there must be major shareholders thinking of ejecting the CEO, and there must be corporate vultures (e.g. private equity) calculating whether they can make this loanbook profitable with a different business model. The CEO has already pressed the ejector button and the IPO was about returning private equity investment so I don't see them deciding to buy it back again any time soon. Err... Samir Desai is the CEO, he's still there I think.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Feb 8, 2020 17:49:16 GMT
The CEO has already pressed the ejector button and the IPO was about returning private equity investment so I don't see them deciding to buy it back again any time soon. Err... Samir Desai is the CEO, he's still there I think. My bad. Meant CFO of course.
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