sl75
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Post by sl75 on Jun 26, 2019 13:31:14 GMT
Sorry, let me reword. I'm amazed that the upward trend in rates has not been a lot quicker. I am aware rates have increased recently. hat is presum ably deliberate on the grounds that the majority will relend at MR and the money added at that rate will encourage most active members to relend around that figure. That (and more consistent rates for the tranches of MR funds) is why they exrtended the average to the longer period. The amount lent at MR (and any lent at "lend it now" most of the time) will uinevitably slow any upward adjustment. I am pleasantly surprised how quickly it has risen with all 3 markets a few notches up already.
- PM
Personally, I'm expecting oscillations with a period roughly 4-6 months... next peak sometime around July-September depending on how fast the "rising" and "max rate stabilisation" phases of the cycle are. When peak market rate is reached "everyone" will be wanting to lend at "market rate" or 0.1% below it, but fewer borrowers will be receiving acceptable quotes, so large queues will emerge again, and the slow march back down to the minimum rate the market will tolerate will be set up for another cycle.
Edit: to clarify, I'd see the cycle as driven by 4 phases, each of which I'd estimate to last 1-2 months: 1. Falling rates: large amounts of unlent funds, so "market rate" is frequently undercut by those seeking to lend out money quickly rather than waiting in the long queue. 2. Min rate stabilisation: as a result of the falling rates, more borrowers are accepting quotes, and fewer lenders are committing funds to the market. This causes the accumulated unlent funds to be whittled away at until there's none left. 3. Rising rates: more borrowers are accepting quotes than lenders are supplying funds at or near the market rate. Frequent "break-outs" to higher rates occur, and the average rate starts to climb. 4. Max rate stabilisation: as a result of the rising rates, fewer borrowers are accepting quotes, and more lenders are committing funds to the market. This causes funds at or near market rate to accumulate so that higher rates can no longer be matched.
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Post by propman on Jun 26, 2019 17:27:11 GMT
Broadly I agree, however I think the ISA cycle and seasonal lnding will also play a big part. I was concerned that in the 5 yr market where the MR funds are substantial, that the stabilisation phase would be prolonged. This time borrowing really picked up and I believe that this reflects more than just the impact of the cheper funds. we will see. So far this week borrowing has been weak. Over half way through the week and £6.7m lent and £0.5m at MR on 5yr market late in the day on a Wednesday does not bode well.
PS end of week, lowest week's lending by 10% this year.
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Post by oppsididitagain on Jun 26, 2019 20:42:02 GMT
another late evening surge... getting matched at 6%. at the moment.. :-).
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Post by discogod on Jun 26, 2019 20:51:28 GMT
6.6% now, looks like the surge has stopped but if it's like the other recent nights, it'll creep up more as the night goes on (hopefully).
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 26, 2019 21:01:33 GMT
Currently matching at 6.8%, problem is that's reducing my current average rate in rolling!
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aju
Member of DD Central
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Post by aju on Jun 27, 2019 8:03:34 GMT
Currently matching at 6.8%, problem is that's reducing my current average rate in rolling! I missed a 7% punt last night. Are you using some tool to monitor or do you just have money in at various rates that get swept up. I've dropped my rates slightly for tonight's run. I thought RS gave the impression they had smoothed rolling out a few days ago.
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IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,661
Likes: 2,984
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Post by IFISAcava on Jun 27, 2019 8:15:43 GMT
Currently matching at 6.8%, problem is that's reducing my current average rate in rolling! I missed a 7% punt last night. Are you using some tool to monitor or do you just have money in at various rates that get swept up. I've dropped my rates slightly for tonight's run. I thought RS gave the impression they had smoothed rolling out a few days ago. No tools - money at various rates plus real time checking (plus alerts from this forum).
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aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,480
Likes: 917
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Post by aju on Jun 27, 2019 8:19:42 GMT
I missed a 7% punt last night. Are you using some tool to monitor or do you just have money in at various rates that get swept up. I've dropped my rates slightly for tonight's run. I thought RS gave the impression they had smoothed rolling out a few days ago. No tools - money at various rates plus real time checking (plus alerts from this forum). shame! but sadly that's what I've been doing since I started in november picking up tips along the the way. I'm still trying to make the whole thing a bit more intuitive and set rates high and then monitor more closely over the weekend works for the 5Y but the rolling seems a nightly punt at the moment. Its is engaging though!
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