ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jul 19, 2019 7:46:29 GMT
I'm surprised that people are quoting such low overall returns from p2p. Personally I'm targeting 8%. My current average XIRR is 6.4%. (Calculated as a simple capital weighted average XIRR across all my p2p accounts. I'm just too lazy to calculate a proper overall XIRR as my data isn't organised in a way that would make it easy). This average is steadily rising. It's currently understated as I don't account for accrued interest before it's paid.I do put a lot of effort in to managing by accounts, but I have no relevant training or expertise in finance, just a bit of common sense, a keen interest, and a bit of knowledge learnt from the forums. It's blatantly obvious to me that my DD skills are way behind that of many forumites, and I'm very grateful for their published hard work. I definitely wouldn't bother with p2p if my returns were as low as 3%. Perhaps I'm in some goldilocks zone, I'm only 17 months in to my p2p journey, where I've not been in long enough to suffer sufficient defaults to give a truly representative return. I guess time will tell. Glad to hear that you're not accounting for accrued interest - it's not real until it's paid. But if you're not accounting for future defaults then you are seriously overstating your returns - try modelling some and see what impact it has. With headline returns of 8% you don't need many failures to take a very big chunk out of that. And 17 months is definitely not long enough to be extrapolating losses! Especially if you're in development loans, where everything is perfect (thanks to retained interest) right up to the moment when it isn't.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jul 24, 2019 9:29:58 GMT
Thanks for that clarification. The thing is, once you resolve to exit p2p, your returns take a nosedive because of the lack of fresh performing loans. If you take the route that I have taken, which to to exit quickly by selling everything that will shift, you just get left with the absolute dross that will trash your returns and linger for several years like a bad smell. Perhaps the thing to do is to regard the ex-invested money as still part of the overall “portfolio” whether it is now in a Marcus account, tracker or something else. Of course, you should always look at your entire portfolio when calculating returns. Any money that exits P2P for me goes into equities so it is still slogging away trying to make me money. I’ll be honest in saying I hardly track my returns at all and just do a total net worth calculation a few times a year
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jul 28, 2019 20:19:45 GMT
Peeps, if you want to make a modicum of effort and help yourself in getting your money back from this FCA created mess, then please private message duck ASAP. I have. You will find him very informed and helpful on positive courses of action, but we have to pull together - strength in numbers.I thank you.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Jul 28, 2019 20:47:08 GMT
Peeps, if you want to make a modicum of effort and help yourself in getting your money back from this FCA created mess, then please private message duck ASAP. I have. You will find him very informed and helpful on positive courses of action, but we have to pull together - strength in numbers.I thank you. This might be a good time to try and work out a method for a 'private area - DDc style'. I assume duck is on board with sharing, but private messaging would produce a lot of work and the inevitable members unable to PM due to post count problem. I know star dust has an interest in Coll, so might consider the logistics. Obviously a 'gate keeper' process is always the main problem, but a fair number could easily be identified by past posting. If the main figures are willing? I think entry should not be beyond a bit of brain storming once a core to share workload is established.
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duck
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Post by duck on Jul 29, 2019 7:44:50 GMT
This might be a good time to try and work out a method for a 'private area - DDc style'. I assume duck is on board with sharing, but private messaging would produce a lot of work and the inevitable members unable to PM due to post count problem. ...... I don't mind sharing and I have been sharing as much as I can (I will be posting something in the next couple of days that all Coll investors who have complained can do). The 'problem' that I have is that nearly everything that comes from the FCA has this as part of it's footer As you can see this is quite 'all encompassing' and at the same time quite vague. The small group of us working behind the scenes have our own way of communicating set up but we don't have much free time with our current Col workload. I'm not saying don't set one up but I can't guarantee that the current group will be able to spend much/any time there. What we have been doing should become openly visible when the FCA/Complaints Commissioner publish FOI/Complaint responses in due course, but of course when that happens is not in our hands.
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Post by brightspark on Jul 29, 2019 8:08:02 GMT
With all due respect to people such as yourself who are doing their best one really has to ask why with such vague but omnipotent threats that could ruin you if taken to excess do you bother? Its increasingly obvious that such efforts will change nothing. The FCA is determined to cover its backside whilst the Administrators are going to help themselves to every penny they can. All you can do is tinker at the margin. It really is not worth it.
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Jul 29, 2019 8:17:37 GMT
Oh come on brightspark is that not a rather dim attitude? Just roll over and die then? Surely we must at least fight. and full marks to those who put their time and effort into that fight.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jul 29, 2019 11:33:08 GMT
With all due respect to people such as yourself who are doing their best one really has to ask why with such vague but omnipotent threats that could ruin you if taken to excess do you bother? Its increasingly obvious that such efforts will change nothing. The FCA is determined to cover its backside whilst the Administrators are going to help themselves to every penny they can. All you can do is tinker at the margin. It really is not worth it. Thanks brightspark, I want you on my Team!NOT.
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m2btj
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Post by m2btj on Jul 29, 2019 11:37:29 GMT
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Jul 29, 2019 12:09:54 GMT
With all due respect to people such as yourself who are doing their best one really has to ask why with such vague but omnipotent threats that could ruin you if taken to excess do you bother? Its increasingly obvious that such efforts will change nothing. The FCA is determined to cover its backside whilst the Administrators are going to help themselves to every penny they can. All you can do is tinker at the margin. It really is not worth it. Thanks brightspark , I want you on my Team!NOT. Not sure I want you on my team, but definitely want you on my new platform; it's called "Fleece the F*ck Outta Me.Com"
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Post by brightspark on Jul 29, 2019 14:36:53 GMT
Oh come on brightspark is that not a rather dim attitude? Just roll over and die then? Surely we must at least fight. and full marks to those who put their time and effort into that fight. It is not dim. It is realistic. Individually, most investors do not have enough at stake nor are sufficiently rich to make it worth their while and/or possible to take matters to court. Some may organise collectively, but apart from wanting their investment back there is not much else in common and, relatively, they are few in number so have a small voice. Most of the time will be spent trying to keep their body corporate heading in the same direction. You say we must fight. Who are we fighting? - The government/legislators? The Regulators? The Administrators? The platform owners? The vested interest Big Hitters? The back-sliding borrowers? Other creditors? All of them and sundry others? That is quite a fight. Others will say it is not a fight. We need collectively and diplomatically to make things happen for everybody - so concede a little here, dig in the toes a little there. Marginal gains at most I would suggest. Bear in mind too that those on any official side with whom you negotiate practice omertà. Woe betide anyone that lets out what is being discussed until all is cut and dried. So for Collateral I have rolled into a ball. As you say full marks to those who are determined to keep those dealing with the mess on a short rein. I wish them well.
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Post by brightspark on Jul 29, 2019 15:40:20 GMT
With all due respect to people such as yourself who are doing their best one really has to ask why with such vague but omnipotent threats that could ruin you if taken to excess do you bother? Its increasingly obvious that such efforts will change nothing. The FCA is determined to cover its backside whilst the Administrators are going to help themselves to every penny they can. All you can do is tinker at the margin. It really is not worth it. Thanks brightspark , I want you on my Team!NOT. What is wrong with a healthy dose of cynicism?
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Jul 30, 2019 6:57:13 GMT
Ah I've got it sussed. The FCA are running scared now after totally F*!!@%! us all over, and brightspark is a secret FCA agent sent in to throw us off the trail.
I might not feel optimistic, it will need friends in high places to have a chance of succeeding, but I am pleased someone is trying.
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blender
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Post by blender on Jul 30, 2019 10:50:43 GMT
Ah I've got it sussed. The FCA are running scared now after totally F*!!@%! us all over, and brightspark is a secret FCA agent sent in to throw us off the trail.
I might not feel optimistic, it will need friends in high places to have a chance of succeeding, but I am pleased someone is trying.
Yes, the chosen name 'brightspark' is clearly intended to suggest that his (or hers) is the most optimistic viewpoint. Where is Don Quixote when he is needed? Or the indomitable Black Knight?
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Brainer
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Post by Brainer on Aug 4, 2019 18:32:46 GMT
There's perhaps an indication of where we are now from two statements made by BondMason. The first made at the time they went into wind-down, the latter made just last week:
"We had 2-2.5% in COL (depending on whether you take it as a fraction of the current loan book, or the time it went into administration)."
"Estimated write-down for Collateral positions of 1.5%."
So by my maths, and depending on which of the two initial percentages to take, BM are currently estimating a capital loss of either 60% or 75% on their Collateral loans.
They are only in property loans, and if they did their job properly are only in the safest of the property loans. They also have a staff member on the Collateral CC, so have a much better idea of the state of the administration than most.
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