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Post by portlandbill on Jul 19, 2019 11:06:41 GMT
Have I missed any discussion on this? Looking at my beta "your performance" graphs, i'm a bit worried? What's it all about?  |
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Post by erniec on Jul 19, 2019 11:39:14 GMT
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 19, 2019 12:14:23 GMT
Have I missed any discussion on this? Looking at my beta "your performance" graphs, i'm a bit worried? What's it all about? I have a similar thing happening in my lending but my graph is not such a stark jump as the scale is different. In essence I think erniec is right. I sold most of my Core and Plus loans a couple of months back and just have slightly less than £2000 of classic loans left. Earnings
Interest earned from borrowers £5.95
Bonus: Refer a friend £0.00
Bad debt: New defaults -£17.50
Bad debt: Repayments from defaults £0.22
of which £0.15 had been
eligible for tax relief
In my case I am earning from Some classic funds, which I think is lumped into the Core graph.
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Post by propman on Jul 19, 2019 14:33:23 GMT
Have I missed any discussion on this? Looking at my beta "your performance" graphs, i'm a bit worried? What's it all about? Just an example of why you need a large number of loans to reduce the potential impact of luck.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 19, 2019 16:01:21 GMT
Yep, a very large number. Even that didn’t stop the missus achieving 2.6% in plus - lower than a BS 5 year fix!
zopa, like FC, dropped their underwriting standards a year or so back so defaults on both platforms have increased.
From a commercial perspective I would imagine Zopa look at the FC share price with horror: “there but for the grace of god...”
Zopa won’t float until it’s a bona fide bank. No one will touch p2p shares after the 80% hair cut FC backers received. Which is a shame ‘cos as an early adopter I still have some share options rotting in the attic.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 19, 2019 16:01:29 GMT
Have I missed any discussion on this? Looking at my beta "your performance" graphs, i'm a bit worried? What's it all about? Just an example of why you need a large number of loans to reduce the potential impact of luck. I'd definitely agree with that premise. In my case I recently reduced the Zopa Invest down to 457 loans with 5 non SG core loans and 5 Plus loan and 447 SG covered loans. In my case I'm still comfortable with the Invest NAR blip, even though this months return will be negative for the first time since starting with Zopa in 2006, I only have a further £60 outstanding potentially in jeopardy on non SG loans. Normally I wouldn't look at things in this way but rather group mine and Mrs AJU figures to see things at the Zopa whole investment level. Note most of the sold loans in both mine and MRS Aju's Zopa went into our recent foray into RS ED and ISA accounts starting from last November when we starting selling off loans.
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 19, 2019 16:44:50 GMT
We’ll blow me down, if big Z haven’t just emailed to say they have matched loans to give an estimated 6.6% in plus.
Lets hope that’s a better estimate than that which gave the missus her 2.6%, eh Zopa.
We wait with baited breath and wallets held tightly closed against a heaving chest.
So, 2.6% or 6.6%? Do ya feel lucky, punk?
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 19, 2019 17:51:52 GMT
We’ll blow me down, if big Z haven’t just emailed to say they have matched loans to give an estimated 6.6% in plus. Lets hope that’s a better estimate than that which gave the missus her 2. 6%, eh Zopa. We wait with baited breath and wallets held tightly closed against a heaving chest. So, 2.6% or 6.6%? Do ya feel lucky, punk? I'm all for a heaving chest, Hopefully that's not all in Plus and worse in large loans too.... I've just worked the XIRR for our 4 accounts all grouped together under one roof albeit but since Jan 2015 out overall xirr to date is 4.7%. Individually they will not all be that great.
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Post by blanik on Jul 20, 2019 5:46:37 GMT
Mrs B Core - currently approx 400 loans.  Fine for first 4 months until the defaults started rolling in - there were some £80 loans at the start, hence the steep drops. Hopefully they have now worked their way out the system.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 21, 2019 14:05:39 GMT
We’ll blow me down, if big Z haven’t just emailed to say they have matched loans to give an estimated 6.6% in plus. Lets hope that’s a better estimate than that which gave the missus her 2. 6%, eh Zopa. We wait with baited breath and wallets held tightly closed against a heaving chest. So, 2.6% or 6.6%? Do ya feel lucky, punk? I'm all for a heaving chest, Hopefully that's not all in Plus and worse in large loans too.... I've just worked the XIRR for our 4 accounts all grouped together under one roof albeit but since Jan 2015 out overall xirr to date is 4.7%. Individually they will not all be that great. Well I've managed to rebuild my XIRR tables to catalogue both the overall XIRR of our 4 products (2 each for myself and Mrs Aju) and each one in isoloation. I've not split out the Core/Plus/Presafeguard or Classics but the following may be of interest if only to give an idea of the returns. Whilst recent increases in defaults will clearly have an effect if I Monitored just the last 12 months I decided to just work back from data for when the Statements pages on Zopa started back in Jan 2015 for Invest and when the ISA's stated for us in May 2017. Overall XIRR : 4.7%
My Invest : 5.44%
Mrs AJU Invest : 4.88%
My ISA : 4.27%
Mrs Aju ISA : 4.16%
Notes:
Until Apr 2019 we had a general loan split of Plus 20%, Rest 80%. Note also that my accounts also have the benefit of 0.5% early adopter. When Core arrived we adopted a lending methodology of lending in £10 blocks (Max £1999 lend block) The ISA sides were also as recent as April subject to 50% sale of funds which were largely moved to RS and were subject to 1% sale costs. Since Dec 2018 relending in Invest is set to move to ISA side for both of us. This is better than I thought it might be but the recent withdrawals may have an effect that will probably take some time to evaluate clearly over the next few months. Since our main objective has always been to beat inflation and have a little bit on top for me this is an an acceptable overall return so far. My view is that the Zopa NAR charts are probably never going to show this kind a stat so not sure I'll bother with them that much. One final thing to not is that the XIRR's for the fin years are definitely reducing by a few points each year up to the large sell off made them not that reliable in the current fin year. Probably still need to make sure the numbers are correct as XIRR is very prone to errors when not working it correctly.
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