FA League of predicted mega failures update 18 – interim and
Jul 20, 2019 10:53:16 GMT
james21 likes this
Post by adrian77 on Jul 20, 2019 10:53:16 GMT
Very busy at the moment so just a quick update of where we are with my list
,
As I have said I am not trying to do anybody down but simply validating my investment instinct – to be honest out of the 40 (actually it is 41 as there are 2 power boat loans) most have been worse than I thought and it looks like only about 10% are going to come good but we will see
My last update was
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/14438/league-predicted-mega-failures-update
so below is a short interim update – please tell me if there are any errors.
Here we go
:
Basically since the last update a whole load of obfuscation and procrastination e.g. the 6 yachts have been active for over 1143 days and the art loans aren't even defaulted but on the plus side we have :
7) South Wales hotel – second payment tranche received 1442701959 (although still a disaster)
8) Military and Timepiece collection - some items sold – bit confusing as to current status but will look into it when I get time
16) unsecured VIP loan – I am surprised but this has been reduced from £125 to £52K
33) R***y Hall reduced from £84K to £35K
38) D***ds Green
repaid in full called this one 100% wrong as expected a 50% loss - that said related loans aren't looking too clever and the loan has been flipped rather then the development completed but a good result which can't be denied.
and now the not so good news
:
9) Park Homes – clearly a mega disaster but just how bad remains to be seen – very confused with the FS update we were told 2 completed homes sold but the monies realised were offset against the 5 uncompleted ones. Until FS say different I have this one down as a provisional £24,982 returned against £402K borrowed – watch this space!
34) Hells Bells – to me very confusing and similar to the Park Homes
Basically we have had back £1181.269K out of £1980K lent being 60% but FS don't mention the supplementary loans so I wonder if the true figure is 73% for the first charges and 0% for the 2 supplementary loans. Also I think the applicant company here knew exactly what they were doing and have taken FS for a ride... again watch this space!
I have pasted the last update below but all future ones will be the below but with each loan reduced to a few simple lines
Of course these are historic loans and the performance may bear no resemblance to current ones but they are still of interest to me - not least as I am in some of them.
=========================================================
1) Wimbledon - loan of £350K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
This was even a bigger disaster than I predicted. The first charge has not even been met let alone the FS third charge. FS talk about future recovery - fat chance!
prediction 100% loss - actual result (barring a miracle) 100% loss
2) Knaresborough - loan of £725K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
predicted loss 100% viz premier league on £725K
if my maths are correct actual recovery £151,080 = 21% so a slightly higher return than predicted here but still a premier league loss.
3) Whitehaven - loan of £530K predicted loss £490K - Premier League
update 30.10.80
looks like this was a bit optimistic as £30K gross recovery...
prediction update 12/01/19
if my maths are correct this has returned £13,144 out of £530K = 2.5% recovery!
prediction 490K loss - actual loss £516,856K
premier league loss as predicted...
4) 6 Boats 1 boat - loan of 40K actual loss 54% - League 1
5 boats £127750.49 predicted loss 90K - Premier League
overall loss on the 6 boats over £100K - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
but puzzled with the maths here - looks to me as if £17,449.51 has been recovered to date
5) power and endurance boats
5a) endurance boat loan of £938K predicted loss over £500K possibly League 1 if lucky
5b) powerboat 550k £1.2m predicted loss over 400k£900K - Premier League
loan repayment now over 3 years late. Yet again even more promised deadlines that never materialised
update 11.03.19
monies due 6th Jan never arrived – next possible date is 14th March 2019...
E******* Endurance Boat - Renewal and Increased Borrowing (2535541073)
launch date already delayed by nearly 2 year and boat not even yet finished
loan repayment 18 months late
I think there was a £1m FS loan which was cancelled
As I see it lots of warm words but no evidence (yet?) whatsoever how this money is going to be repaid.
6) Barnoldswick
main farmhouse - £188K - predicted loss 100% - Premier League
£587K - predicted loss £80K - League 2
cottage - 20K - zero loss !
cottage - 44K additional loan predicted loss £10K - League 2
update 20.01.19
1st Charge Barnoldswick (8010286828) 587K loan repayment over 12 months late
2nd Charge Barnoldswick (2861004433) 188K '' '' 13 months ''
house is damaged by the bankrupt developer who is facing eviction from it -
Cottage Barnoldswick
Property in Barnoldswick - Renewal (1079396222) loan repayment over 9 months late
FS failed to have secure a charge against the cottage
looks like my original prediction will be over generous by the time this complete shambles is resolved ! Only good thing (I think) is that FS have said they will compensate for the lack of the security.
7a) south wales hotel £420K loan predicted loss £120K – league 1 loss
7b) south wales hotel £100K loan predicted loss £100K 100% – Premier
update 08.03.19 (11.03/19) ***********
complete disaster as predicted
7a) gross loss = £420,000 - £358.213 = £61,787K
net loss = £420,000 - £179,327 = £240,637 =54%
loss greater than predicted but still league 1 as predicted
7b) total 100% loss as predicted - I think this is the 3rd 100% property loan loss - amazing!
end update **********
8) Military and Time Piece Collection 1013434811
378K loan – predicted loss 150K league 1
now reduced to 359,843
update 20.01.19
will clarify when I get time but we have had a renewal since my original post although there still seems to be overdue loan completions as well here?
eg Military and Time Piece Collection - Renewal (1013434811) £359,843.14 nearly 4 months late?
Goodish news - may be a possible buyer here...
this is based upon a forum member who really knows this market,
9a) 2 park homes £165 predicted loss £60K league 1
£33K second charge predicted loss - 100% £33K Premier
£33K third charge - 100% £33K premier
I also note that despite and original loan value being given it was twice extended - really
don't like that!
9b) 5 park homes loan £228K predicted loss anywhere from £128K - £28K so a generous league 1
I may well be wrong but this is one of the craziest business models I have ever seen - if a dealer wanted one of these things why would he buy from this chap and not go direct to the manufacturer. I see no evidence of a site for these things and however much do they depreciate ex-factory? In fact I am not even convinced these things will be sold unless they are massively discounted - just my opinion.
update 16.02.19
9a) the 2 completed homes - (Bel Air models?) are going to auction
9b) the 5 homes - 2 have been partially or hopefully 100% completed -the others are worthless despite FS stating they were worth 41K (key largo) + 42K = £83K
10) Trains - very confusing as to what is actually happening - I think a 50% recovery on one loan has already been made so to simplify I have this one as
loan outstanding
of £57K with predicted loss of £30K cost League 1
very confusing about what has happened here
update 20.01.19
seems to be just under 75% capital loss I had this one as 50% loss league one so correct although I under-estimated the total loss
11) Newcastle student flats
Haven't time to do detailed research so a very superficial comment
loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1
update 26.01.19 - this one is now 20 months old -still awaiting planning as of Jan 2019
12) Cinema - granted this one may have a serious buyer who will cover the loan but I really can't see it especially as were originally told
update 26.01.19 as per below called this one 100% wrong - pleased for the investors...
Comupdate 26.01.19pletion date is 31 January 2018 or 10 days after satisfaction of all conditions precedent, whichever is later.
Loan £2m - predicted loss £1m+ - League 1 although could reach the Premiership!
---update loan £1.65m predicted loss £650K - league 2 if very lucky
loan £250K 2nd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
loan £100K 3rd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
---- end update
----update 28.07.18
update 14/09/18 - repaid in full earlier this month !
13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool loan total £625K
This one is over 16 months late and clearly in trouble As it seems to consist of 3 freehold titles which have not been inspected then I have no idea what it is worth! I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership.
update 26.01.19 actual loss £625K - £440.5K i.e. £184.5k loss = 30% loss - league 2 as predicted
14) East Ham Property loan £77K (second charge) complete and utter disaster easily a loss of over 75% - Premiership (could be a 100% loss?)
update 26.01.19 this one is in default receivers have an offer of £470K which FS say will repay the first charge and this one - not with my maths which may be wrong so time will tell - possibly another call which was 100% wrong
15) Land Lytham St Annes
- very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. Considering Final Planning Permission is not even granted yet all I can say is Gordon Bennett and I expect this to be another FS mega disaster. I note there are already discounted loans on the SM. It looks to me as if this chap is late with a modest £2.45m loan total outstanding - well how on earth is he going to repay that anytime soon! FS have lent this chap money to repay interest on a non income generating asset that, in my opinion, is grossly overvalued...nasty!
£2.45M at 20% is over £40K per month in interest. Do I think this 1.3 acres site is going to sell for over £3m - in a word "no"! I would guess about 50% of this. If I am correct then £2.85M is going to take a haircut (a right skinhead) so say a very generous League 2 and the £500K will be a Premier League loss at 100%
update 04.08.18
had a very busy week so only a short update this week but I still have plenty to go on!
update 26.01.19
borrower has breached FS's deadline so they are now taking legal advice
I think the earliest due loan is now 5 months late but there are plenty of others which are overdue or due very soon - not looking good to me!
16) VIP
- this one has exactly zero security so well donee Funding Secure
this person has been borrowing money since March 2016 so not looking very good for the advertising contract is it!
impossible to say but this can't go on forever so I have this one down as a very generous league 1 i.e. over £45K i.e. 50% loss - it may come good but I can't see it
update 26.12.18 loan partially repaid and is now £52K
update 02.02.19 - looks like this one is going to come in better than I thought
it looks as if 125k - 52K = £73K has been repaid which is more than we have had for a lot of secured property loans! This one is due to repay at end of next month so interesting to see what happens then
17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork
update 11.03.19*************
this just gets worse and worse – still not defaulted and FS claiming there may be a recovery...
see post by Mousey
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12516/art-arts-sake?page=58
I guess possibility of recovery - depends if blood is thicker than water!
end update 11.03.19 *********
18) Rishton
loan of £610K
- this one is now 890 days late!
IMHO the valuation regarding the land and reduced building costs is a joke
and no I don't expect FS to realise £1m per acre for a building plot in Lancashire
If this valuation is accurate then why does the lender need to go to a Dubai based funder who could not even get the funds transferred despite his solicitor having the money. As confirmed by people who know Dubai this is total horlicks unless is was sent by camel who took refugee status in Israel... worried I should cocoa!
Just look what the Whitehaven plot went for or rather didn't go - too busy to do detailed reasearch but will be surprised if FS realise £400K after expenses so a £210K loss and a very generous League 1
update 02.02.19 - now a staggering 28 months/1072 days late ...
As of today only 1 loan out of 20 has had a 100% capital recovery -
more belters next week - as always please say if you want any added or don't agree with my valuations. I am not criticising FS but simply validating how I think their loan book is performing against my predictions.
That said if I am anywhere near correct it is sure going to be one almighty haircut for we investors!
--- update 11.08.18
Bit busy at the moment as I have a development deadline to meet as
nasty things happen if I am late...
But here is a quick update of my predicted mega failures
19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land - is this one confusing or what
however second charge of £50K - my superficial research indicates by the time the first charge holder has had his interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and could well be a 100% loss
20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk £350K - think a small to modest haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15%
update 02/02/19
19) this is a second charge loan 2141271013 and the first charge holder has defaulted and 6 weeks late
20) I think £315K has been recovered from property sale so that leaves a 35K shortfall
overall - as of today 1 out of 20 loans has had 100% capital recovered the best scenario is that this will rise to 5 (although I doubt it!). Thus at least 75% of my first 20 have failed to produce a positive return -
21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m (I think) this one looks to me to have gone completely pear-shaped. I think no building has even started yet and refinancing fallen through so how on earth is this one going to be repaid especially as it was due 22.11.17
This has a first charge of £600K and a second charge of £100K
I am giving the first charge a very generous 50% loss viz £300K i.e. League 1 but may well be Premier League. As to the second charge a belter of a Premier League which looks like another 100% loss to me (said that before!)
update 08/02/19
Capital loan has been partially repaid but loan over a year late
22) Reading 2 x 1 bed flats £195K : League 2
No survey , no verification of PP for conversion and running extremely late
In January we had
Borrower has been in contact and expects to be able to pay interest to renew the loan next week.
and last week we had
We are expecting this loan now to be repaid within the next 10 days
so enough is enough...
If we take 18 months at 20% interest on £195K that is about £60K or £40K per year against an asset generating £18K gross income. Thus I predict ,at best, about a £100K loss so a very generous League 2 although if there are any tenant or planning issues could easily be Premier League with a loss of over £140K
update 08/02/19
Over a year late - looks like this may avoid being defaulted due to a possible sale
23) Roddymoor
Main loan £861K : League 3
Supplementary loan £114 : Premier League
so if we take £500K (average) at 20% that is £100K.
Last accounts show under £7k cash (granted there may be other accounts) – seem to be charges all over the place although some may have been paid off
. When I see such accounts I just feel faint...
However I think that with an over-optimistic valuation of £1.245M allied with LTV of 78% and the amount of work left to do then I predict net total realised ,at best £800K i.e. haircut and a very generous league 3 whereas supplementary charge – 100% loss.
24) Formby
Main charge £815K - League 2
Second chage £180K - Premier League
Third charge £77K - Premier League
Goodness knows what costs have been run up with interest, maintenance , security etc
I can see this one realising ,at best, about £700K net so main loan a very generous League 2
update 08/02/19
flrst overdue loan over 7 months late, all loans due by 9th march 2019
loans available at discount on SM ...
update 08/02/19
this one just gets worse (I am in it) now over 17 months late
from FS update....the value of the site has dropped significantly...
update 11.03.19 *********
latest finance offer has failed to materialise - defaulted - good move FS!
end update
25) bar in Londonderry
update 02-09-18
This one was due to complete 06/12/2016
Valuation seems to be simply 12 x projected rental income - you what!
I think the property is freehold but it is not clear to me from the VR
No reference to having read the Title nor looking at the business accounts
I have zero experience of commercial poperty in NI so hard to say what I think this one is worth - anybody like to comment but doing my very limited research £250K looks generous to me so I will still my neck out and go for a very generous 100K loss viz league 2 but a league 1 or higher loss would not surprise me
--- end update 02-09-18
update 08/02/19
over 2 years late – FS about to appoint receiver - puzzled why this one is not defaulted
26) Spilsby - think FS have been a bit unlucky here but it did not sell at auction for a lot less that the valuation. I don't think this one will be too bad so giving it a 20% loss i.e. League 3
update 08/02/19
have been advised that the pending sale is currently subject to a dispute over a claimed right of way. This dispute is currently in the Courts and no final judgement has yet been reached.
however much is that going to cost - loan is over 6 months late
27) *est *erby Road Liverpool
update 21.10.18
Still very busy but should meet my building deadline next week - I will be about 2 weeks late which I am really not happy about although I did injure my knee which out me out of action - bit better than Rishton etc which are over 2 years late!
update 26.12.18 I think we have 1st charge of £630K and 2nd charge of £198K = £828K
looks a very problematic build to me with a very high price paid for the land hence
I predict £600K max and hence league 1 - 30% loss overall with the second charges being wiped out - I hope I am wrong but £5.2m for the land with planning strikes me as a joke!
update 08/02/19
there is a chance this one may come good due to refinancing - currently a few days under a year late
28) B******d Rd, Wirral 3222209939.
update 27.12.18
I am concerned this one has run out of money before completion and believe me this is not good news for a developer (tell me about it) and with Brexit coming up I expect the UK market to ,at least, stall for a few months whilst we wait to see what actually happens.
I find the FS information on this one very confusing but I think we have
£378K - prime loan of should just about be OK ?
£100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2
£104K - supplementary facility I think 3rd charge of £104K - total loss
property has since been updated to 2 x 6 bedroomed house which seems sensible to me considering the area but I predict these will not be easy to sell due to Brexit and general slowdown in the high end housing market. Thus I am going for a generous 50% loss i.e. league 1 on the 2nd charge. To give credit to FS - at least they refused to lend any more on this development - wonder which company picked up the second charge?
The next time I go to a building site and see unfinished houses which has resulted in an offer of 50% expected asking price won't be the first....
update 08/02/19
Again may come good as FS have a deed of priority against lender who has a second charge on another property -
first loan is over 6 months late
29)New Brighton
update 11.03.19
put to market in “as is” condition for 30 days – good move FS!
end update 11.03.19
This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789 [Mod edit-link update to avoid naming]
According to the agents this one won't be finished until early 2019 so no idea how much more work is to be done but full credit to the developer for spending 1m smackers on the fire system
I think we have £1.5m first charge: predicted loss 0%
£370K second charge : predicted loss 50%
finished units are for sale at £85K per unit but they aren't all finished and £85K seems high to me - don't know if the receiver will finish them or just get shot of them..
It looks to me that we have several developments underpinned by several companies with 2 bankruptcy petitions - as we receivers say "kerching!". If we budget £40K net per unit then we are talking about a loss after interest. I can foresee yet another 100% loss on the second charge but have this one down at 50% loss.
I an also see a local developer making a low offer on the whole development and finishing it off - that's the way to do it!
update 08/02/19
just get worse - loan over 8 months late
with costs to complete having come in significantly higher than they were anticipating
30) V**** Bridge Mill
This one worries me - seems a very problematic development to me with lot of money lent out and still not generating income. This is just my opinion!
However I predict of if you prefer, guess:
30a) first charge £1.25m 0% loss
30b) second charge £222K quite possibly 100% loss but say 50% loss
30c) third charge (I think) £28K 100% loss
update 08/02/19
£222K loan over 4 months late – £38K loan due next week
£1.25m due early March 2019...what's the problem?
31) C*elms Quarry
This all looks very ambitious build to me and that the developer has borrowed £1.53m for a plot which will decrease in value once the original buildings have been demolished – rings a bell doesn't it!
For me just too many directorships and ongoing projects and the balance sheet I have seen is not very encouraging!
I can't see where the £1.m due within the next 3-4 months is going to come from. So I have this one down as
2867890404 £770K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
3075461346 £830K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
If you don't agree with me then you can buy these loans on the SM with 1% discount and good luck to you!
update 16.02.19
£830K due 3rd March ...
32) Shepton Mallet
I think the following 2 have the same borrower ?
32a) Shepton Mallet Building
2291716796 £135K borrowed - predicted loss 0%
1841204597 £50K borrowed '' '' 50% league ` but premier league would not surprise me.
update 16.02.19 both loans are over 4 months late
FS states interest has been received for the £135K loan but also shows this loan as late and being due on 27/09/2018 so puzzled. Also we have been told building has stopped as developer working on other projects (good job he has not run out of money!) So this chap is borrowing money at 20% or whatever and the asset is not being improved...
This one worries me so have made predictions as above
32b) Shepton Mallet land
ownership etc looks too complicated for me and is leasehold – I suspect the rental income is less than the FS interest – again this one is late
7071679925 £265K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
update 19.02.19
loan is over 5 months late
33 R***y hall
prediction 50% loss league 1
update 16.02.19
partial interest paid but loan is nearly 2 months late
34 The *ell
prediction generous overall 50% loss with later charges being 100% loss league 1/premier
update 26.01.19
defaulted in December 2018 - first loan 9 months overdue
update 16.02.19
£1.98m over 7 months late ...
35 Barnett
prediction generous 50% loss
update 26.01.19
18.01.19 -
expect to have the funds available shortly
- no problem then oh hang on just seen
31/08/2018
- Borrower plans to renew - funds due in shortly
wonder what shortly actually means...
update 16.02.10
£312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
36 A***d Road The Wirral
prediction 25% loss - league 2 but could easily be closer to 50%
update 26.01.19
under default awaiting receivers report
update 16.02.19 - still waiting for report £830K due 31.03.18...
37 C**den Street Liverpool £312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
prediction over 50% loss could well be premier league but say league 1
update 26.01.19
under default awaiting receivers report
see FS DD link - not looking good to me...
drive past valuation! And by our favorite valuers jot it down with an HB pencil...
update 16.02.19
£1.81m late. £38K is one month and £665K 5 months late - still awaiting report.
38 D***ds Green
think linked to above
prediction 50% loss
see very interesting FS DD post ref directorship link
link
update 16.02.09
all loans due by 05.03.18 most of the 846K (?) is late e.g. £62K due 08/09/2018 thanks to forum poster this has been photographed and is nowhere near finished
39 West **** R**d Liverpool
plot is only 78mx 45m - seems expensive and a very ambitious project to me
prediction 50% loss league 1
update 16.02.19
loan £310K due 12/04/2018 ie 10 months late - awaiting planning - may come good...
40 Zummerzet Properties
these loans are running late and I really don't think now is a good time to be selling...
first charge £344K may just about be OK ?
second charge 100K have this one as a 50% loss league 2
update 16.02.19
Above over 4 months late - borrower is still renegotiating the first charge - guess may still come good...
,
As I have said I am not trying to do anybody down but simply validating my investment instinct – to be honest out of the 40 (actually it is 41 as there are 2 power boat loans) most have been worse than I thought and it looks like only about 10% are going to come good but we will see
My last update was
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/14438/league-predicted-mega-failures-update
so below is a short interim update – please tell me if there are any errors.
Here we go
:
Basically since the last update a whole load of obfuscation and procrastination e.g. the 6 yachts have been active for over 1143 days and the art loans aren't even defaulted but on the plus side we have :
7) South Wales hotel – second payment tranche received 1442701959 (although still a disaster)
8) Military and Timepiece collection - some items sold – bit confusing as to current status but will look into it when I get time
16) unsecured VIP loan – I am surprised but this has been reduced from £125 to £52K
33) R***y Hall reduced from £84K to £35K
38) D***ds Green
repaid in full called this one 100% wrong as expected a 50% loss - that said related loans aren't looking too clever and the loan has been flipped rather then the development completed but a good result which can't be denied.
and now the not so good news
:
9) Park Homes – clearly a mega disaster but just how bad remains to be seen – very confused with the FS update we were told 2 completed homes sold but the monies realised were offset against the 5 uncompleted ones. Until FS say different I have this one down as a provisional £24,982 returned against £402K borrowed – watch this space!
34) Hells Bells – to me very confusing and similar to the Park Homes
Basically we have had back £1181.269K out of £1980K lent being 60% but FS don't mention the supplementary loans so I wonder if the true figure is 73% for the first charges and 0% for the 2 supplementary loans. Also I think the applicant company here knew exactly what they were doing and have taken FS for a ride... again watch this space!
I have pasted the last update below but all future ones will be the below but with each loan reduced to a few simple lines
Of course these are historic loans and the performance may bear no resemblance to current ones but they are still of interest to me - not least as I am in some of them.
=========================================================
1) Wimbledon - loan of £350K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
This was even a bigger disaster than I predicted. The first charge has not even been met let alone the FS third charge. FS talk about future recovery - fat chance!
prediction 100% loss - actual result (barring a miracle) 100% loss
2) Knaresborough - loan of £725K predicted loss 100% - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
predicted loss 100% viz premier league on £725K
if my maths are correct actual recovery £151,080 = 21% so a slightly higher return than predicted here but still a premier league loss.
3) Whitehaven - loan of £530K predicted loss £490K - Premier League
update 30.10.80
looks like this was a bit optimistic as £30K gross recovery...
prediction update 12/01/19
if my maths are correct this has returned £13,144 out of £530K = 2.5% recovery!
prediction 490K loss - actual loss £516,856K
premier league loss as predicted...
4) 6 Boats 1 boat - loan of 40K actual loss 54% - League 1
5 boats £127750.49 predicted loss 90K - Premier League
overall loss on the 6 boats over £100K - Premier League
prediction update 12/01/19
but puzzled with the maths here - looks to me as if £17,449.51 has been recovered to date
5) power and endurance boats
5a) endurance boat loan of £938K predicted loss over £500K possibly League 1 if lucky
5b) powerboat 550k £1.2m predicted loss over 400k£900K - Premier League
loan repayment now over 3 years late. Yet again even more promised deadlines that never materialised
update 11.03.19
monies due 6th Jan never arrived – next possible date is 14th March 2019...
E******* Endurance Boat - Renewal and Increased Borrowing (2535541073)
launch date already delayed by nearly 2 year and boat not even yet finished
loan repayment 18 months late
I think there was a £1m FS loan which was cancelled
As I see it lots of warm words but no evidence (yet?) whatsoever how this money is going to be repaid.
6) Barnoldswick
main farmhouse - £188K - predicted loss 100% - Premier League
£587K - predicted loss £80K - League 2
cottage - 20K - zero loss !
cottage - 44K additional loan predicted loss £10K - League 2
update 20.01.19
1st Charge Barnoldswick (8010286828) 587K loan repayment over 12 months late
2nd Charge Barnoldswick (2861004433) 188K '' '' 13 months ''
house is damaged by the bankrupt developer who is facing eviction from it -
Cottage Barnoldswick
Property in Barnoldswick - Renewal (1079396222) loan repayment over 9 months late
FS failed to have secure a charge against the cottage
looks like my original prediction will be over generous by the time this complete shambles is resolved ! Only good thing (I think) is that FS have said they will compensate for the lack of the security.
7a) south wales hotel £420K loan predicted loss £120K – league 1 loss
7b) south wales hotel £100K loan predicted loss £100K 100% – Premier
update 08.03.19 (11.03/19) ***********
complete disaster as predicted
7a) gross loss = £420,000 - £358.213 = £61,787K
net loss = £420,000 - £179,327 = £240,637 =54%
loss greater than predicted but still league 1 as predicted
7b) total 100% loss as predicted - I think this is the 3rd 100% property loan loss - amazing!
end update **********
8) Military and Time Piece Collection 1013434811
378K loan – predicted loss 150K league 1
now reduced to 359,843
update 20.01.19
will clarify when I get time but we have had a renewal since my original post although there still seems to be overdue loan completions as well here?
eg Military and Time Piece Collection - Renewal (1013434811) £359,843.14 nearly 4 months late?
Goodish news - may be a possible buyer here...
this is based upon a forum member who really knows this market,
9a) 2 park homes £165 predicted loss £60K league 1
£33K second charge predicted loss - 100% £33K Premier
£33K third charge - 100% £33K premier
I also note that despite and original loan value being given it was twice extended - really
don't like that!
9b) 5 park homes loan £228K predicted loss anywhere from £128K - £28K so a generous league 1
I may well be wrong but this is one of the craziest business models I have ever seen - if a dealer wanted one of these things why would he buy from this chap and not go direct to the manufacturer. I see no evidence of a site for these things and however much do they depreciate ex-factory? In fact I am not even convinced these things will be sold unless they are massively discounted - just my opinion.
update 16.02.19
9a) the 2 completed homes - (Bel Air models?) are going to auction
9b) the 5 homes - 2 have been partially or hopefully 100% completed -the others are worthless despite FS stating they were worth 41K (key largo) + 42K = £83K
10) Trains - very confusing as to what is actually happening - I think a 50% recovery on one loan has already been made so to simplify I have this one as
loan outstanding
of £57K with predicted loss of £30K cost League 1
very confusing about what has happened here
update 20.01.19
seems to be just under 75% capital loss I had this one as 50% loss league one so correct although I under-estimated the total loss
11) Newcastle student flats
Haven't time to do detailed research so a very superficial comment
loan £860K predicted loss £360K– League 1
update 26.01.19 - this one is now 20 months old -still awaiting planning as of Jan 2019
12) Cinema - granted this one may have a serious buyer who will cover the loan but I really can't see it especially as were originally told
update 26.01.19 as per below called this one 100% wrong - pleased for the investors...
Comupdate 26.01.19pletion date is 31 January 2018 or 10 days after satisfaction of all conditions precedent, whichever is later.
Loan £2m - predicted loss £1m+ - League 1 although could reach the Premiership!
---update loan £1.65m predicted loss £650K - league 2 if very lucky
loan £250K 2nd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
loan £100K 3rd charge predicted loss 100% Premier League
---- end update
----update 28.07.18
update 14/09/18 - repaid in full earlier this month !
13) Mixed Use Property, Liverpool loan total £625K
This one is over 16 months late and clearly in trouble As it seems to consist of 3 freehold titles which have not been inspected then I have no idea what it is worth! I am guessing the recovery will be around £0.5m Thus I have this one as a very generous League 2 i.e. over 25% loss but it could make the Premiership.
update 26.01.19 actual loss £625K - £440.5K i.e. £184.5k loss = 30% loss - league 2 as predicted
14) East Ham Property loan £77K (second charge) complete and utter disaster easily a loss of over 75% - Premiership (could be a 100% loss?)
update 26.01.19 this one is in default receivers have an offer of £470K which FS say will repay the first charge and this one - not with my maths which may be wrong so time will tell - possibly another call which was 100% wrong
15) Land Lytham St Annes
- very confusing ! I think we have a first charge on £2.85m and a second charge on £500K. Considering Final Planning Permission is not even granted yet all I can say is Gordon Bennett and I expect this to be another FS mega disaster. I note there are already discounted loans on the SM. It looks to me as if this chap is late with a modest £2.45m loan total outstanding - well how on earth is he going to repay that anytime soon! FS have lent this chap money to repay interest on a non income generating asset that, in my opinion, is grossly overvalued...nasty!
£2.45M at 20% is over £40K per month in interest. Do I think this 1.3 acres site is going to sell for over £3m - in a word "no"! I would guess about 50% of this. If I am correct then £2.85M is going to take a haircut (a right skinhead) so say a very generous League 2 and the £500K will be a Premier League loss at 100%
update 04.08.18
had a very busy week so only a short update this week but I still have plenty to go on!
update 26.01.19
borrower has breached FS's deadline so they are now taking legal advice
I think the earliest due loan is now 5 months late but there are plenty of others which are overdue or due very soon - not looking good to me!
16) VIP
- this one has exactly zero security so well donee Funding Secure
this person has been borrowing money since March 2016 so not looking very good for the advertising contract is it!
impossible to say but this can't go on forever so I have this one down as a very generous league 1 i.e. over £45K i.e. 50% loss - it may come good but I can't see it
update 26.12.18 loan partially repaid and is now £52K
update 02.02.19 - looks like this one is going to come in better than I thought
it looks as if 125k - 52K = £73K has been repaid which is more than we have had for a lot of secured property loans! This one is due to repay at end of next month so interesting to see what happens then
17) artwork : Chagall, Picasso, Impressionists, Lowry, Auerbach, Vases, Artwork
update 11.03.19*************
this just gets worse and worse – still not defaulted and FS claiming there may be a recovery...
see post by Mousey
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/12516/art-arts-sake?page=58
I guess possibility of recovery - depends if blood is thicker than water!
end update 11.03.19 *********
18) Rishton
loan of £610K
- this one is now 890 days late!
IMHO the valuation regarding the land and reduced building costs is a joke
and no I don't expect FS to realise £1m per acre for a building plot in Lancashire
If this valuation is accurate then why does the lender need to go to a Dubai based funder who could not even get the funds transferred despite his solicitor having the money. As confirmed by people who know Dubai this is total horlicks unless is was sent by camel who took refugee status in Israel... worried I should cocoa!
Just look what the Whitehaven plot went for or rather didn't go - too busy to do detailed reasearch but will be surprised if FS realise £400K after expenses so a £210K loss and a very generous League 1
update 02.02.19 - now a staggering 28 months/1072 days late ...
As of today only 1 loan out of 20 has had a 100% capital recovery -
more belters next week - as always please say if you want any added or don't agree with my valuations. I am not criticising FS but simply validating how I think their loan book is performing against my predictions.
That said if I am anywhere near correct it is sure going to be one almighty haircut for we investors!
--- update 11.08.18
Bit busy at the moment as I have a development deadline to meet as
nasty things happen if I am late...
But here is a quick update of my predicted mega failures
19) Norfolk Farmhouse with land - is this one confusing or what
however second charge of £50K - my superficial research indicates by the time the first charge holder has had his interest and fees etc there is unlikely to be anything left over so Premier League and could well be a 100% loss
20) Related : 6 bed house in Norfolk £350K - think a small to modest haircut here (unless refinancing comes about) so a predicted £50K loss viz a generous League 3 loss at 15%
update 02/02/19
19) this is a second charge loan 2141271013 and the first charge holder has defaulted and 6 weeks late
20) I think £315K has been recovered from property sale so that leaves a 35K shortfall
overall - as of today 1 out of 20 loans has had 100% capital recovered the best scenario is that this will rise to 5 (although I doubt it!). Thus at least 75% of my first 20 have failed to produce a positive return -
21) Development plot Liverpool - total loan £0.7m (I think) this one looks to me to have gone completely pear-shaped. I think no building has even started yet and refinancing fallen through so how on earth is this one going to be repaid especially as it was due 22.11.17
This has a first charge of £600K and a second charge of £100K
I am giving the first charge a very generous 50% loss viz £300K i.e. League 1 but may well be Premier League. As to the second charge a belter of a Premier League which looks like another 100% loss to me (said that before!)
update 08/02/19
Capital loan has been partially repaid but loan over a year late
22) Reading 2 x 1 bed flats £195K : League 2
No survey , no verification of PP for conversion and running extremely late
In January we had
Borrower has been in contact and expects to be able to pay interest to renew the loan next week.
and last week we had
We are expecting this loan now to be repaid within the next 10 days
so enough is enough...
If we take 18 months at 20% interest on £195K that is about £60K or £40K per year against an asset generating £18K gross income. Thus I predict ,at best, about a £100K loss so a very generous League 2 although if there are any tenant or planning issues could easily be Premier League with a loss of over £140K
update 08/02/19
Over a year late - looks like this may avoid being defaulted due to a possible sale
23) Roddymoor
Main loan £861K : League 3
Supplementary loan £114 : Premier League
so if we take £500K (average) at 20% that is £100K.
Last accounts show under £7k cash (granted there may be other accounts) – seem to be charges all over the place although some may have been paid off
. When I see such accounts I just feel faint...
However I think that with an over-optimistic valuation of £1.245M allied with LTV of 78% and the amount of work left to do then I predict net total realised ,at best £800K i.e. haircut and a very generous league 3 whereas supplementary charge – 100% loss.
24) Formby
Main charge £815K - League 2
Second chage £180K - Premier League
Third charge £77K - Premier League
Goodness knows what costs have been run up with interest, maintenance , security etc
I can see this one realising ,at best, about £700K net so main loan a very generous League 2
update 08/02/19
flrst overdue loan over 7 months late, all loans due by 9th march 2019
loans available at discount on SM ...
update 08/02/19
this one just gets worse (I am in it) now over 17 months late
from FS update....the value of the site has dropped significantly...
update 11.03.19 *********
latest finance offer has failed to materialise - defaulted - good move FS!
end update
25) bar in Londonderry
update 02-09-18
This one was due to complete 06/12/2016
Valuation seems to be simply 12 x projected rental income - you what!
I think the property is freehold but it is not clear to me from the VR
No reference to having read the Title nor looking at the business accounts
I have zero experience of commercial poperty in NI so hard to say what I think this one is worth - anybody like to comment but doing my very limited research £250K looks generous to me so I will still my neck out and go for a very generous 100K loss viz league 2 but a league 1 or higher loss would not surprise me
--- end update 02-09-18
update 08/02/19
over 2 years late – FS about to appoint receiver - puzzled why this one is not defaulted
26) Spilsby - think FS have been a bit unlucky here but it did not sell at auction for a lot less that the valuation. I don't think this one will be too bad so giving it a 20% loss i.e. League 3
update 08/02/19
have been advised that the pending sale is currently subject to a dispute over a claimed right of way. This dispute is currently in the Courts and no final judgement has yet been reached.
however much is that going to cost - loan is over 6 months late
27) *est *erby Road Liverpool
update 21.10.18
Still very busy but should meet my building deadline next week - I will be about 2 weeks late which I am really not happy about although I did injure my knee which out me out of action - bit better than Rishton etc which are over 2 years late!
update 26.12.18 I think we have 1st charge of £630K and 2nd charge of £198K = £828K
looks a very problematic build to me with a very high price paid for the land hence
I predict £600K max and hence league 1 - 30% loss overall with the second charges being wiped out - I hope I am wrong but £5.2m for the land with planning strikes me as a joke!
update 08/02/19
there is a chance this one may come good due to refinancing - currently a few days under a year late
28) B******d Rd, Wirral 3222209939.
update 27.12.18
I am concerned this one has run out of money before completion and believe me this is not good news for a developer (tell me about it) and with Brexit coming up I expect the UK market to ,at least, stall for a few months whilst we wait to see what actually happens.
I find the FS information on this one very confusing but I think we have
£378K - prime loan of should just about be OK ?
£100K - second facility of £100,000 - 50% loss i.e. league 2
£104K - supplementary facility I think 3rd charge of £104K - total loss
property has since been updated to 2 x 6 bedroomed house which seems sensible to me considering the area but I predict these will not be easy to sell due to Brexit and general slowdown in the high end housing market. Thus I am going for a generous 50% loss i.e. league 1 on the 2nd charge. To give credit to FS - at least they refused to lend any more on this development - wonder which company picked up the second charge?
The next time I go to a building site and see unfinished houses which has resulted in an offer of 50% expected asking price won't be the first....
update 08/02/19
Again may come good as FS have a deed of priority against lender who has a second charge on another property -
first loan is over 6 months late
29)New Brighton
update 11.03.19
put to market in “as is” condition for 30 days – good move FS!
end update 11.03.19
This is linked to other loans -see excellent mrclondon post
p2pindependentforum.com/thread/10789 [Mod edit-link update to avoid naming]
According to the agents this one won't be finished until early 2019 so no idea how much more work is to be done but full credit to the developer for spending 1m smackers on the fire system
I think we have £1.5m first charge: predicted loss 0%
£370K second charge : predicted loss 50%
finished units are for sale at £85K per unit but they aren't all finished and £85K seems high to me - don't know if the receiver will finish them or just get shot of them..
It looks to me that we have several developments underpinned by several companies with 2 bankruptcy petitions - as we receivers say "kerching!". If we budget £40K net per unit then we are talking about a loss after interest. I can foresee yet another 100% loss on the second charge but have this one down at 50% loss.
I an also see a local developer making a low offer on the whole development and finishing it off - that's the way to do it!
update 08/02/19
just get worse - loan over 8 months late
with costs to complete having come in significantly higher than they were anticipating
30) V**** Bridge Mill
This one worries me - seems a very problematic development to me with lot of money lent out and still not generating income. This is just my opinion!
However I predict of if you prefer, guess:
30a) first charge £1.25m 0% loss
30b) second charge £222K quite possibly 100% loss but say 50% loss
30c) third charge (I think) £28K 100% loss
update 08/02/19
£222K loan over 4 months late – £38K loan due next week
£1.25m due early March 2019...what's the problem?
31) C*elms Quarry
This all looks very ambitious build to me and that the developer has borrowed £1.53m for a plot which will decrease in value once the original buildings have been demolished – rings a bell doesn't it!
For me just too many directorships and ongoing projects and the balance sheet I have seen is not very encouraging!
I can't see where the £1.m due within the next 3-4 months is going to come from. So I have this one down as
2867890404 £770K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
3075461346 £830K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
If you don't agree with me then you can buy these loans on the SM with 1% discount and good luck to you!
update 16.02.19
£830K due 3rd March ...
32) Shepton Mallet
I think the following 2 have the same borrower ?
32a) Shepton Mallet Building
2291716796 £135K borrowed - predicted loss 0%
1841204597 £50K borrowed '' '' 50% league ` but premier league would not surprise me.
update 16.02.19 both loans are over 4 months late
FS states interest has been received for the £135K loan but also shows this loan as late and being due on 27/09/2018 so puzzled. Also we have been told building has stopped as developer working on other projects (good job he has not run out of money!) So this chap is borrowing money at 20% or whatever and the asset is not being improved...
This one worries me so have made predictions as above
32b) Shepton Mallet land
ownership etc looks too complicated for me and is leasehold – I suspect the rental income is less than the FS interest – again this one is late
7071679925 £265K borrowed predicted loss 50% league 1
update 19.02.19
loan is over 5 months late
33 R***y hall
prediction 50% loss league 1
update 16.02.19
partial interest paid but loan is nearly 2 months late
34 The *ell
prediction generous overall 50% loss with later charges being 100% loss league 1/premier
update 26.01.19
defaulted in December 2018 - first loan 9 months overdue
update 16.02.19
£1.98m over 7 months late ...
35 Barnett
prediction generous 50% loss
update 26.01.19
18.01.19 -
expect to have the funds available shortly
- no problem then oh hang on just seen
31/08/2018
- Borrower plans to renew - funds due in shortly
wonder what shortly actually means...
update 16.02.10
£312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
36 A***d Road The Wirral
prediction 25% loss - league 2 but could easily be closer to 50%
update 26.01.19
under default awaiting receivers report
update 16.02.19 - still waiting for report £830K due 31.03.18...
37 C**den Street Liverpool £312K second charge may be re-financed - still waiting - nearly 6 months late
prediction over 50% loss could well be premier league but say league 1
update 26.01.19
under default awaiting receivers report
see FS DD link - not looking good to me...
drive past valuation! And by our favorite valuers jot it down with an HB pencil...
update 16.02.19
£1.81m late. £38K is one month and £665K 5 months late - still awaiting report.
38 D***ds Green
think linked to above
prediction 50% loss
see very interesting FS DD post ref directorship link
link
update 16.02.09
all loans due by 05.03.18 most of the 846K (?) is late e.g. £62K due 08/09/2018 thanks to forum poster this has been photographed and is nowhere near finished
39 West **** R**d Liverpool
plot is only 78mx 45m - seems expensive and a very ambitious project to me
prediction 50% loss league 1
update 16.02.19
loan £310K due 12/04/2018 ie 10 months late - awaiting planning - may come good...
40 Zummerzet Properties
these loans are running late and I really don't think now is a good time to be selling...
first charge £344K may just about be OK ?
second charge 100K have this one as a 50% loss league 2
update 16.02.19
Above over 4 months late - borrower is still renegotiating the first charge - guess may still come good...
