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Hong kong
Aug 3, 2019 20:00:12 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 3, 2019 20:00:12 GMT
Any views on what is going to happen ? I have been following the coverage with interest especially on YouTube. Situation just seems to be getting crazier by the day.
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Post by mrclondon on Aug 3, 2019 21:32:29 GMT
I've spent quite a few very enjoyable weeks in HK over the years roaming far beyond Central/Kowloon, so its hard watching what is happening.
We are now 22 years into the 50 year "1 country, 2 systems" and it was inevitable to my mind that the Chinese would attempt a gradual ramp between the two systems during the 50 years to avoid an unmanagable cliff edge in 2047 (2049 in Macau). That HK would remain entirely autonomous from Beijing for the 50 years was never realistic, and a receipe for future disaster. Each succesive generation of youngsters need to become accustomed to increasing (political) control being exerted by Beijing. The key stipulation of the 2 systems approach is that HK/Macau continue with a capitalist economy ... however in reality China's economy is moving ever closer to a capitalist model.
China may be making mistakes along the way, but has little room to backdown, as any perceived weakness shown by the authorities will make Bejing's hidden road map for political change in HK over the remaining 27 years much harder to achieve.
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 7:20:27 GMT
I was planning to go to hk towards the end of this year but had to cancel due to the instability of the region. This looks like the beginning of a revolution and the world is watching. China needs to be very careful about how they handle this to avoid another legacy like tianamen square. Which still haunts them today.
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 7:21:28 GMT
They also need to be seen to be upholding the rule of law. Which is no easy task.
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Post by mrclondon on Aug 4, 2019 11:28:06 GMT
The Chinese interview included this para
"Not many Chinese people care about the technical or legal details of the Brexit deal, but the saga has made an impression. The reputation of British democracy has suffered. If you ask someone on the streets of Beijing what they think of Brexit, they might say: “Democracy only leads to confusion.” I know that’s not true, but it is difficult to change their impression."
In the wider context (and I realise I am on very dodgy ground here ) it could be argued that the EU philosophy of ever closer integration towards an eventual goal of united states of europe is not that disimilar to the way China is ruled politically ..... i.e. a centralised philosphy which is left the regions to implement. Is there really that much difference between the National People's Congress and the EU Parliament ?
To follow up on the point I made yesterday abount China's economy gradully shifting to a more capitalist model, its worth keeping an eye on the Special Economic Zones ( wikipedia) to see where HK/Macau will likely end up economically in the 2050s. (And bear in mind Shenzhen is just the other side of the HK border, ditto Zhuhai & the Macau border, along with the rest of Guangdong province).
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Post by mrclondon on Aug 4, 2019 12:15:14 GMT
I think the point I'm trying to make is that there may not be much difference between tear gas on the streets of Paris and tear gas on the streets of Hong Kong.
The former triggered by protests against France's economic policies designed to ensure France met "Brussel's" rules on budget deficits, the latter by protests against Hong Kong's implementation of an extradition treaty which met "Beijing's" requirements. Both protests can be interpreted as a cry for self-governance.
(Again, to repeat, I know I'm on dodgy ground and I am possibly guilty of simplifying complex issues too far, but in the context of the meaning of democracy / self-government, it does bear further thought. )
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 12:45:44 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 12:45:44 GMT
1 million hk dollars for information to catch the person who threw the Chinese flag into sea in hk ? Then flew the independent hk flag in its place.
Literally everyone in hk is publicly destroying chinese flags. They will have alot of rewards to hand out. China has its priorities all wrong!
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 13:00:49 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 13:00:49 GMT
Another interesting aspect is what effect all this protesting will have on the mainland and Macau. Corruption has always been a way of life in china and no one yet has really opposed this. Will the people on the mainland learn from hk and also stand up for a better life ? Is this the most danger the chinese communist party has ever faced ? Will the pla be sent to hk to end the protests?
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Post by captainconfident on Aug 4, 2019 16:28:12 GMT
In the wider context (and I realise I am on very dodgy ground here ) it could be argued that the EU philosophy of ever closer integration towards an eventual goal of united states of europe is not that disimilar to the way China is ruled politically ..... i.e. a centralised philosphy which is left the regions to implement. Is there really that much difference between the National People's Congress and the EU Parliament ?
Edit ....
The former triggered by protests against France's economic policies designed to ensure France met "Brussel's" rules on budget deficits, the latter by protests against Hong Kong's implementation of an extradition treaty which met "Beijing's" requirements. Both protests can be interpreted as a cry for self-governance.
Have you been hitting the bottle today, mrclondon? You getting this off someone you met in the pub?
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 17:46:12 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 17:46:12 GMT
Hey this stuff is deep. We in the uk take our freedoms for granted. The ppl of hk have to fight tooth and nail for their most basic rights. And this is mostly teenagers!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 18:37:15 GMT
Hey this stuff is deep. We in the uk take our freedoms for granted. The ppl of hk have to fight tooth and nail for their most basic rights. And this is mostly teenagers! Yes. I grew up in HK and was there in 1997. I remember the outbreak of pro-Chinese nationalism and anti-Western 'go home gwailo' feeling very well. The teenagers of today should ask their parents why they celebrated their freedoms being handed to China on a plate 20 years ago.
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 18:51:04 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 18:51:04 GMT
Any views on what is going to happen ? I have been following the coverage with interest especially on YouTube. Situation just seems to be getting crazier by the day.
The short answer as has been relayed to me by someone who knows a thing or two about Hong Kong politics is "its complicated".
The Western view, the things your favourite Western news channel opts to show you is only a fraction of the story.
I'm not going to try to repeat verbatim what I've been told, partly because "Chatam House Rule", partly because frankly it would end up being longer than War & Piece.
The two big "take aways" in terms of factors that could affect what happens next:
1) Carrie Lam. Her days are largely numbered, and the Chinese are actively knocking on doors of prospects. So pro-Beijing is obvious, its just a case of how much. The nature of her replacement will obviously play a role in dictating with what will happen next.
2) Money. These protests are being financed. Those providing the financing have an inherent interest in not seeing the Chinese in any greater power in Hong Kong un-necessarily early (i.e. not before the natural expiry of "one country, two systems"). The pockets of those financing are suitably deep, but how long and to what extent they wish to carry on also forms a role in dictating what will happen next.
There are other things too, but I'll stop there for now.
What an interesting aspect. And one i did not even think about. Third party finance of these protest movements. What hk organisations have the most to lose from increased chinese control of hk. HSBC?
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 18:53:24 GMT
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Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 18:53:24 GMT
Possibly even financed by the US who feel threatened by chinese control. Maybe somehow linked to this Huawei scandal ?
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Post by martin44 on Aug 4, 2019 20:06:45 GMT
Hey this stuff is deep. We in the uk take our freedoms for granted. The ppl of hk have to fight tooth and nail for their most basic rights. And this is mostly teenagers! They didnt have to in 1997 when under the democratic british rule... the HK parliament was infriltrated by the chinese very soon after, i have yet to see a communist ruling govt where the people have a legitimate say in how their lives are/should be led.... the chinese want complete control over the hong kong youth, and they will not stop until they get it... no matter what london or washington says.
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Hong kong
Aug 4, 2019 20:17:16 GMT
via mobile
Post by gravitykillz on Aug 4, 2019 20:17:16 GMT
Hey this stuff is deep. We in the uk take our freedoms for granted. The ppl of hk have to fight tooth and nail for their most basic rights. And this is mostly teenagers! They didnt have to in 1997 when under the democratic british rule... the HK parliament was infriltrated by the chinese very soon after, i have yet to see a communist ruling govt where the people have a legitimate say in how their lives are/should be led.... the chinese want complete control over the hong kong youth, and they will not stop until they get it... no matter what london or washington says. Very true. The only thing that can stop this is an uprising of the Chinese people not just hk. They need the support of the people of mainland china. Only then will Washington and London pay any serious attention to this issue.
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