aju
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Post by aju on Oct 6, 2019 15:24:01 GMT
I am expecting the 5yr market to fairly quickly drop to exactly the same rates as the going rate on the Max market, so 5 percent. I am expected the Max market to rarely go above 5 percent. This should at least mean there is plenty of money going into the PF. It should also mean the stability of the RS platform will improve and RS are able to operate going forward without too many more large injections of equity to fund future growth. I expect plaform risk will reduce. I would love to see 6 percent rates on the 5 year market again but I think that is unlikely bar very rare peaks to fund very large loans or when large lenders exit the market. I am wondering that about the 5Y too but one never knows until we have had a few months under the wing so to speak I am hoping you are right with the stability of RS and to be fair 5% for my strategy is still quite good but only if the risk factor improves. Next few weeks also might be quite telling especially if Boris gets his wish for a no deal (To be honest as someone who has had negotiation skill training in the past and a long while back I'm assuming he is just playing his cards closely to his chest which even as an ardent remain voted but not a remoaner I have an understanding of their current position).
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robski
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Post by robski on Oct 7, 2019 9:56:43 GMT
As I posted on another post i think people are confusing the queues. They are a single queue, its just due to the different products they display all the numbers for each product. To be honest I think its purely caused by taking the old system and using it to display for the new one. So for example if £100 is lent, all three queues will drop by £100. Which product lends will just be the one(s) with money at the start of the queue. So you would see all three drop by £100.
How the rates are going to pan out I think is too early to say. There will be a fairly short (IMO) window where 5 year will exceed max, but its already dropping and will continue until its within 0.1% I would suggest.
There is clearly lower lending going on in RS, that would have impacted rates already and will continue to do so. If you go to rate trends, unclick all the lending markets and just keep weekly volume, filter from Sept or Oct 2018 to date its very clear. Last week was actually the lowest lending week in over a year, apart from the xmas/new year 2019.
The RS rates are very volatile to demand. A significant drop in demand will drop rates and vice versa, we all jump for joy when the rates jump, and this is when demand related. Most of us probably have been "guilty" of putting extra in at this point. How many of us automatically withdraw when rates fall, not many I suspect. We will grudgingly often accept a little less at that point.
The big question, which will take some time to answer is, will the stats improve. For them you need to look at actual amounts paid out, not the provision numbers. The provision numbers are highly affected by the black box expected future losses, the ones that cant be manipulated are whats been paid out from the PF. If we see those stats improve then maybe the lower rates are fair compared to a lower risk, if however the stats don't improve then I guess many will come back to the current thinking that the available rate doesn't reflect the risk.
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bulletbill
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Post by bulletbill on Oct 7, 2019 11:47:35 GMT
I’ve just logged in to RS to check on the 5 year market. There’s 6.5million quid queued to be lent out, 3.5million of which is waiting at the 5% going rate. There seems to be a clear mismatch in supply and demand at the moment and appears to be plenty of appetite to lend at the 5% that RS has “fixed”.
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aju
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Post by aju on Oct 7, 2019 11:56:08 GMT
I’ve just logged in to RS to check on the 5 year market. There’s 6.5million quid queued to be lent out, 3.5million of which is waiting at the 5% going rate. There seems to be a clear mismatch in supply and demand at the moment and appears to be plenty of appetite to lend at the 5% that RS has “fixed”. yeah as has been said there is a single queue and for the 5Y it is in contention with the Max product in simplistic terms. however when looking at all the markets side by side, apart from the 1Y, its clear that there is a 5% wall before the higher options. I am aware its a single queue but is it the case that the following is true Lender A lends at 12:00 @ 5.4% on say Max Lender B lends at 12:01 @ 3.0% on say Access Is it the case that Lender B can be lent out before lender A or does it just work on your lend time queue position that determines when you are lent out. I'm guessing its not that simple and until someone actually defines the single queue lend criteria one will never know. from others comments about lending at Going but not being lent out at all as the rates fall the criteria must be definable still.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 7, 2019 12:05:22 GMT
To inform future comparisons of whether or not the 1yr/5yr markets really have dropped following the new changes, I am posting here today's rate summary. Taken from the Rate Trends webpage. Average Market Rates | 3 Month | 12 Month | All Time | Access | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1 Year | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5 Year | 5.6%
| 5.7% | 5.8% |
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 7, 2019 12:06:15 GMT
I am aware its a single queue but is it the case that the following is true Lender A lends at 12:00 @ 5.4% on say Max Lender B lends at 12:01 @ 3.0% on say Access Is it the case that Lender B can be lent out before lender A or does it just work on your lend time queue position that determines when you are lent out. I'm guessing its not that simple and until someone actually defines the single queue lend criteria one will never know. from others comments about lending at Going but not being lent out at all as the rates fall the criteria must be definable still. Max and Access use the same queue.
5.4% in Max is the same as 3.4% in Access; 3.0% in Access is the same as 5.0% in Max. Which of the rates you consider the canonical adjusted rate is mostly up to you.
Therefore in your example, lender B is at the lower (adjusted) rate and further forwards in the queue.
If instead Lender B had chosen 3.4%, then both lenders are offering at the same (adjusted) rate, so the queue distinguishes them based on time, and lender A was first at that rate.
Right now, the money at "going rate" is sufficient to cover more than an average day's demand even without new offers being added to the queue, so higher rate money certainly won't be matched today, and probably won't be matched for the next week (because money is constantly being added). I'd say there's at least a reasonable chance of the "going rate" money running dry before the end of the month though.
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coogaruk
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Post by coogaruk on Oct 7, 2019 12:07:46 GMT
I am on the verge of commencing the big wind down. Once that starts, there will be no going back. (As both Z & FC know to their cost - not that they care)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2019 12:22:05 GMT
I’ve just logged in to RS to check on the 5 year market. There’s 6.5million quid queued to be lent out, 3.5million of which is waiting at the 5% going rate. There seems to be a clear mismatch in supply and demand at the moment and appears to be plenty of appetite to lend at the 5% that RS has “fixed”. There is currently only £100 waiting to be lent at 5.3% in the 5 year market so 5.3 is very achievable. I imagine the weekend repayments have yet to be added.
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robski
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Post by robski on Oct 7, 2019 12:24:04 GMT
I am aware its a single queue but is it the case that the following is true Lender A lends at 12:00 @ 5.4% on say Max Lender B lends at 12:01 @ 3.0% on say Access Is it the case that Lender B can be lent out before lender A or does it just work on your lend time queue position that determines when you are lent out. I'm guessing its not that simple and until someone actually defines the single queue lend criteria one will never know. from others comments about lending at Going but not being lent out at all as the rates fall the criteria must be definable still. Max and Access use the same queue.
5.4% in Max is the same as 3.4% in Access; 3.0% in Access is the same as 5.0% in Max. Which of the rates you consider the canonical adjusted rate is mostly up to you.
Therefore in your example, lender B is at the lower (adjusted) rate and further forwards in the queue.
If instead Lender B had chosen 3.4%, then both lenders are offering at the same (adjusted) rate, so the queue distinguishes them based on time, and lender A was first at that rate.
Right now, the money at "going rate" is sufficient to cover more than an average day's demand even without new offers being added to the queue, so higher rate money certainly won't be matched today, and probably won't be matched for the next week (because money is constantly being added). I'd say there's at least a reasonable chance of the "going rate" money running dry before the end of the month though.
Pretty much my view on all counts, however unless lending picks up I can see the lower rates hanging around a fair bit longer. To me the fundamental benefit RS saw was that the rolling market had lots of money frequently, and yet the others could spike. Rolling didnt spike as often (but often spiked a LOT when it did). By merging the pools they created larger pools and the risks from individual pools spiking was lowered. There are actually things against them though. Once the "big pool" starts to spike its across all markets and lenders could get an appetite for that, so they start listing higher rates. If it becomes normal its far harder for RS to change that behaviour. Also, once people really get to grips with the ways its working unless its genuine short term cash then moving more to MAX would make sense, for the higher rate. Its the same loans, over the same periods, with the same restrictions in capital and interest, the only difference is the buy out penalty. If you put say 25% in access, and 25% in plus with the remaining 50% in Max then bar a complete disaster you wouldn't need to be invested for long to be interet positive vs all in access, and only seek to gain more over time. Really depends on amounts, how much you could need the cash etc I still believe 3% in access is too low. Its no more guaranteed you can withdraw it due to liquidity than either plus or Max, the only difference being the fee. Assuming the queue would be the same for releasing funds as the queue works for matching, then should there be some massive liquidity crisis on RS, I don't think the 1% or 2% would make any difference to people triggering the sell out.
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robski
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Post by robski on Oct 7, 2019 12:26:07 GMT
I’ve just logged in to RS to check on the 5 year market. There’s 6.5million quid queued to be lent out, 3.5million of which is waiting at the 5% going rate. There seems to be a clear mismatch in supply and demand at the moment and appears to be plenty of appetite to lend at the 5% that RS has “fixed”. There is currently only £100 waiting to be lent at 5.3% in the 5 year market so 5.3 is very achievable. I imagine the weekend repayments have yet to be added. Yep no sign of weekend money yet for me. Still got the same 80p in everyday that was sitting there Friday, and I start to see repayments in there before anything turns up in the ISA
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 7, 2019 13:12:17 GMT
RS used to siphon money very quickly, but now I have to start learning all over again. One thing for sure, that's no instant match any more. It makes me wonder whether the system is broken, or something behaves completely different. I also had a look on the rate trend. Lending volume is low at the moment since Sunday, just over £1mil members.ratesetter.com/ratesetter_info/rate_trends.aspxStarted to see tiny portion of money matched after 25 minutes. Not sure if this would speed up later or even slow down.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 7, 2019 13:40:15 GMT
RS used to siphon money very quickly, but now I have to start learning all over again. One thing for sure, that's no instant match any more. It makes me wonder whether the system is broken, or something behaves completely different. Main difference seems to me that the rate that would achieve an "instant match" (where one exists) is no longer the default setting - instead the "going rate" is the default setting, and if you want an instant match (or at least one sooner than the queue at the "going rate" allows) you need to explicitly edit the offer and select a lower rate.
As the queue shortens and "going rate" money starts to run dry, you may start to see "instant match" rate being the same as the going rate (e.g. later in the month), but at that point higher rates would be achievable by editing the offer and waiting a little.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 7, 2019 13:41:39 GMT
RS used to siphon money very quickly, but now I have to start learning all over again. One thing for sure, that's no instant match any more. It makes me wonder whether the system is broken, or something behaves completely different. Main difference seems to me that the rate that would achieve an "instant match" (where one exists) is no longer the default setting - instead the "going rate" is the default setting, and if you want an instant match (or at least one sooner than the queue at the "going rate" allows) you need to explicitly edit the offer and select a lower rate. That's exactly what I am testing, even at lower rate below going rate, no instant match.
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sl75
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Post by sl75 on Oct 7, 2019 13:44:37 GMT
Main difference seems to me that the rate that would achieve an "instant match" (where one exists) is no longer the default setting - instead the "going rate" is the default setting, and if you want an instant match (or at least one sooner than the queue at the "going rate" allows) you need to explicitly edit the offer and select a lower rate. That's exactly what I am testing, even at lower rate below going rate, no instant match. ok... but I think even on the old system there'd be times when the best borrower rate and best lender rate were the same (or sometimes even crossed over) while the system caught up with processing stuff. It's going to be as "instant" as it gets that way, for sure!
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 7, 2019 14:03:47 GMT
After an hour later, all matched below the going rate. Let's see how long it takes to match my "going rate"
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