adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Nov 8, 2019 9:09:31 GMT
I have assumed the loan book is £80m
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Nov 10, 2019 10:15:06 GMT
Thanks to those you have voted to date - doing a rough sum I make the weighted predicted loss to be about £33m - I really would not be surprised if this is far off the final mark - will be "interesting" to see how the loan books finally ends up. Hopefully the loss will be zero but somehow I doubt it.
I seem to recall FS asked for a delay when taking legal action over the art loan roughly at the same time as FS talked about boosting technical staff.
Am I being cynical to think FS knew they were on the ropes and both the above were a deliberate spin tactic to try and deny the true situation whilst having no intention to take on these extra staff - answers on a digital postcard...I thank you
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Nov 10, 2019 10:33:23 GMT
Thanks to those you have voted to date - doing a rough sum I make the weighted predicted loss to be about £33m - I really would not be surprised if this is far off the final mark - will be "interesting" to see how the loan books finally ends up. Hopefully the loss will be zero but somehow I doubt it. I seem to recall FS asked for a delay when taking legal action over the art loan roughly at the same time as FS talked about boosting technical staff. Am I being cynical to think FS knew they were on the ropes and both the above were a deliberate spin tactic to try and deny the true situation whilst having no intention to take on these extra staff - answers on a digital postcard...I thank you This shows predicted loss of capital from loans . With 40% loss in capital and associated interest. Results in an overall return of 60% plus associated interest. We have to remember there would in normal circumstances a predicted 10% ish Los of capital on defaulted loans. Individual loss will vary enormously with loans invested into. For example if you had 100% in the latest repaid loan you capital loss would be nil with 12% profit.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Nov 10, 2019 14:00:00 GMT
Not saying this is wrong but where is the evidence for this? My capital losses have been much higher. I won't be surprised if Hells Dells, Towerblock, speed boats, art loans etc etc will result in a 90% loss...
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wilwak
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Post by wilwak on Nov 10, 2019 18:11:10 GMT
I think the problem is that some professional has to be engaged to try to recover each loan now.
It is not the appointed administrators role to recover loans.
Any professional is going to cost thousands or tens of thousands to try to recover each loan.
Of course hopefully some of the debtors will simply settle their debts once threatened and recovery costs will be minimal but repossessions and legal action will be costly.
All my remaining loans are now at least 6 months overdue and I’m sadly expecting a minimal recovery on them after costs.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Nov 11, 2019 8:37:51 GMT
sadly I agree with this - hopefully this will be less for smaller items such as jewellery but the South Wales Hotel cost £75K which I think is ridiculous. I hate to think how much it will cost to sort out Hells Bells etc let alone the art works (maybe that one will simply be scrapped?) So we will have recovery costs and administration costs (as I see it) - fantastic - well done FS
don't forget - "organic growth - it's a process"!
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