adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 18, 2019 10:40:18 GMT
so 18-24 most likely to vote Brexit, I think not ! Where did you get that from? Where did you get that from? Exit polling. I'm talking about probability of voting Tory. But, yes, voting outside the two main parties was pretty consistent across all demographics (20-25%), with the main change being the split between Tory/Labour (total 75-80%). C2 is, of course, Labour's traditional core demographic - skilled manual - ~21% of the population, the smallest of the main groupings. www.ukgeographics.co.uk/blog/social-grade-a-b-c1-c2-d-e
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 18, 2019 10:43:10 GMT
Interesting I thought getting on ballot was down to MP's
as I remember it when Corbyn stood some other candidates ( Burnham springs to mind ) loaned Corbyn nominations so he could get on ballot.
Momentum effectively controls the result if they get their candidate in the last 2 as they are much more likely to vote.
I'd have thought KS would be the most likely Momentum supported candidate
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 18, 2019 10:45:00 GMT
KS may struggle to get on the ballot paper due to the need to secure support from grassroots, which is controlled by Momentum and the Unions. If it's the same as 2015, then the only requirement to get on the ballot was MP nominations (Corbyn had fewest, and only snuck on by one vote). The big change between 2010 and 2015 was the move from block voting to one-member-one-vote-(ish). 2010 - MPs, members and unions were counted separately, and the union block single-handedly changed the result from David Milliband to Ed.
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keitha
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Post by keitha on Dec 18, 2019 10:45:16 GMT
so 18-24 most likely to vote Brexit, I think not ! Where did you get that from? MY Mistake !Where did you get that from? I understand that all the papers are gathered centrally and analysed which will take months Exit polling. I'm talking about probability of voting Tory. But, yes, voting outside the two main parties was pretty consistent across all demographics (20-25%), with the main change being the split between Tory/Labour (total 75-80%). C2 is, of course, Labour's traditional core demographic - skilled manual - ~21% of the population, the smallest of the main groupings. www.ukgeographics.co.uk/blog/social-grade-a-b-c1-c2-d-e
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Post by dan1 on Dec 18, 2019 10:51:07 GMT
KS may struggle to get on the ballot paper due to the need to secure support from grassroots, which is controlled by Momentum and the Unions. If it's the same as 2015, then the only requirement to get on the ballot was MP nominations (Corbyn had fewest, and only snuck on by one vote). The big change between 2010 and 2015 was the move from block voting to one-member-one-vote-(ish). 2010 - MPs, members and unions were counted separately, and the union block single-handedly changed the result from David Milliband to Ed. From www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/12/16/labour-leadership-election-who-can-vote-and-how-does-it-workMomentum control large proportions of the CLPs and trade unions the affiliates.
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Post by dan1 on Dec 18, 2019 10:53:10 GMT
... I'd have thought KS would be the most likely Momentum supported candidate RLB I'd of thought?
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 18, 2019 10:54:50 GMT
I graduated 8 years ago and witnessed very little political messaging of any persuasion during my time at university, most certainly not a direct word from any lecturers. I'd imagine many students have a similar experience if not directly involved with student politics; the vast majority of us walked past any demonstrations and put the inevitable flyer in the next bin with only a cursory glance. It's only after my experience in 'the real world' and exposure to the individuals of the ERG/Brexit party that my views have shifted leftwards. The Conservative party leadership of today bears little resemblence to the leadership of 5 years ago. Sadly my time at Uni was much longer ago, but the idea that Uni's were a hotbed of left wing indoctrination didn't exist then and I very much doubt it exists on any scale today.
My views have not shifted much at all in recent years, leftwards or otherwise.The Conservative Party has done far more shifting away from me than I have from it.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Dec 18, 2019 10:58:56 GMT
Also, KS was only a postgraduate at Oxford - not sure if that counts in the elected PM stats - hasn't been formally tested. High risk, but few other choices. KS may struggle to get on the ballot paper due to the need to secure support from grassroots, which is controlled by Momentum and the Unions. Agreed. Took Labour 14 years to recover from 1983. Likely to be similar this time.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 18, 2019 10:58:57 GMT
Compared to 35 in 2015 - but the process is basically the same. But it does mean the "hard left" can really only nominate two candidates maximum, one more likely, out of a possible field of nine. And that's a big change...
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Post by dan1 on Dec 18, 2019 11:04:36 GMT
KS may struggle to get on the ballot paper due to the need to secure support from grassroots, which is controlled by Momentum and the Unions. Agreed. Took Labour 14 years to recover from 1983. Likely to be similar this time. Hmmm.... it's going to be tricky, or should that be Trickett
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Post by df on Dec 18, 2019 14:13:46 GMT
Anyone on the thread been in a university recently? I mean you must have some evidence for the allegations that universities indoctrinate students with left wing propaganda and that students are not able to think critically for themselves, right? And that indoctrination is confined just to the left and to universities? I think the main reason for majority of younger generation giving their vote to Labour is that they are less influenced by mainstream press and are able to make up their own mind.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 18, 2019 15:09:32 GMT
I graduated 8 years ago and witnessed very little political messaging of any persuasion during my time at university, most certainly not a direct word from any lecturers. I'd imagine many students have a similar experience if not directly involved with student politics; the vast majority of us walked past any demonstrations and put the inevitable flyer in the next bin with only a cursory glance. It's only after my experience in 'the real world' and exposure to the individuals of the ERG/Brexit party that my views have shifted leftwards. The Conservative party leadership of today bears little resemblence to the leadership of 5 years ago. Sadly my time at Uni was much longer ago, but the idea that Uni's were a hotbed of left wing indoctrination didn't exist then and I very much doubt it exists on any scale today.
My views have not shifted much at all in recent years, leftwards or otherwise.The Conservative Party has done far more shifting away from me than I have from it.
When you and I went to university, a much smaller proportion of the population attended. Now it is much higher. That affects the demographic of attendees which is exaggerated at some institutions and presumably has a corresponding effect on political opinion. For the record, I've long believed in "the few" to attend university and even fewer doing non-vocational degrees such as philosopy but to increase greatly the quality of apprentiships and the status of the engineers and technicians who do them.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 18, 2019 15:36:00 GMT
I think the main reason for majority of younger generation giving their vote to Labour is that they are less influenced by mainstream press It'd certainly be interesting to map the voting demographics to the readership demographics of certain segments of the press.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 18, 2019 16:40:21 GMT
I think the main reason for majority of younger generation giving their vote to Labour is that they are less influenced by mainstream press It'd certainly be interesting to map the voting demographics to the readership demographics of certain segments of the press. Maybe someone has the figures but I suspect the FT would be at the top of the high brow pile followed by The Telegraph with The Mirror being close to the bottom. You can spin this stuff any way you want.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Dec 18, 2019 17:12:15 GMT
It'd certainly be interesting to map the voting demographics to the readership demographics of certain segments of the press. Maybe someone has the figures but I suspect the FT would be at the top of the high brow pile followed by The Telegraph with The Mirror being close to the bottom. You can spin this stuff any way you want. Indeed. Does a person's political leaning influence the paper (and other material) they read, the opposite or both?
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