iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 27, 2019 19:46:32 GMT
What do I think we could get for the entire loan book - 50% if we are lucky Can you clarify please? 50% would represent £40mm returned (from the c. £80mm at the time FS entered Administration.) Is that from a 'quickie' sale of the whole book; or as a total of returns from individual redemption? If the latter, what do you think an potential purchaser would offer for a loan book you believe may be worth £40mm and bearing in mind they'd want to make a profit.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 27, 2019 22:07:30 GMT
Its down to the CC to represent us but personally Ive got quite a few loans that are well overdue.
I would be happy to pay a higher rate to the administrators to chase the bad loans rather than sell off the individual loans to asset recovery companies who will offer pennies in the pound.... better to pay the administrators a higher rate on poor quality loans rather than to a debt collection company.
Its all unknown at the end of the day and just speculation but 50 percent return on all the assets lumped together and sold in a job lot is a catastrophe....I understand that Administrators fees are accruing but the fees would be spread over many many loans.
My gut instinct on P2P at the start was it was too good to be true but trusted the FCA to monitor fraud,incompetance and greed
The whole thing is a mess
Fools I think we agree the whole thing is a mess. I think our difference is that I think the catastrophe has already happened, i.e. most loans are so far gone that a decent return is in my opinion very, very unlikely. This is no matter how much of what proceeds there are we agree to hand over to administrators. In my opinion a 50% return on assets will not happen no matter the route taken from here, no debt collection company will pay that to buy these stinky loans and administrators will never be able to return that much, certainly after their fees. Remember administrators are not debt collection experts, we will likely be paying them to administer contracts with third parties to recover the debts. This is why I think it would be best for all if the loan book was auctioned off and proceeds returned to investors. Personally I slightly question whether you and others here understand how bad the situation is. People talking about 50p in the pound return from here, I personally think anything over 10p would be a surprise! I have been through administrations before and usually its a couple of pence at best. And yes we also agree the FCA's regulation of p2p lenders has been a total joke. I actually think we would have been better with no FCA at all, at least then people would have known that its a wild west of an industry.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 27, 2019 22:11:18 GMT
Apologies ...trying to get the hang of using the quote and had to edit the previous post so Ive posted my reply again below
In normal administrations it is one company or its feeder companies that go under but my understanding is we have 100s of different loans to 100s of developers or people needing cash by pawning items so they are all unique.Albeit FS messed up by not twigging that multiple loans were made to single borrowers without FS being aware....this changed the risk for me as I unwittingly invested a lot of cash with one borrower.This should have been picked up by someone and eventually by the FCA but they neglected to do so under light touch regulation.So we have a shambles like the Art loans...under vlauation and negligence by surveyors in C****** h**** and the D***....many of these loans are zombies and I am invested in many ...on the other side there are decent loans...well I would like to think there were....but are you saying that we sell the complete loan book off to another P2P lender for 50 percent and just divide the proceeds up as you would in shares in companies so that the bad loand rank equal to the lets just say not so bad ones.......dont think it would matter much to me either way as have a few bad loans but if I was invested in better loans I would be annoyed at that proposal...It might well be the best proposal but as mentioned before it might be the best way forward to achieve a better return...one thing for sure ...I will never touch P2P again
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 27, 2019 22:30:25 GMT
Apologies ...trying to get the hang of using the quote and had to edit the previous post so Ive posted my reply again below
"Albeit FS messed up by not twigging that multiple loans were made to single borrowers without FS being aware....this changed the risk for me as I unwittingly invested a lot of cash with one borrower.This should have been picked up by someone and eventually by the FCA but they neglected to do so under light touch regulation"
Why do you assume FS weren't aware? They were absolutely aware as far as I know. They just (often) chose not to declare it.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 27, 2019 22:50:14 GMT
I think it was lytham (could be wrong) but they took steps to secure the asset to prevent items being removed to preserve value...certainly got an email about that one and a few others that were connected loans.
I think it was the new management team that secured the asset but you may be correct in that the original FS managagement team were aware and were happy to provide loans contrary to the terms and conditions and if that was the case then they might be liable in civil or criminal law.
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duck
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Post by duck on Dec 28, 2019 4:29:03 GMT
..... but you may be correct in that the original FS managagement team were aware and were happy to provide loans contrary to the terms and conditions and if that was the case then they might be liable in civil or criminal law.
Can you give me a reference for that statement?
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Mucho P2P
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Post by Mucho P2P on Dec 28, 2019 9:31:40 GMT
quite possibly but I wonder if this would be cost-effective - well at least we are all agreed this is a complete and utter Horlicks. As I said I would like the administrators to start updating us with plans for individual loans e.g. the tower block in Formby which must be costing a fortune with maintenance, security etc The administrators are unlikely to release individual loan updates of any significance. They will be working on all loans. The good ones, wont need updates, as they will repay, as we have seen. The bad ones, the administrators are unlikely to release significant/detailed updates if enforcement action is being pursued, so as not to prejudice the lenders. We will however be pushing the administrators to publish some reasonable updates, even if just a basic progress report so the lenders can see where they stand, time wise.
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pip
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Post by pip on Dec 28, 2019 10:30:08 GMT
Apologies ...trying to get the hang of using the quote and had to edit the previous post so Ive posted my reply again below
In normal administrations it is one company or its feeder companies that go under but my understanding is we have 100s of different loans to 100s of developers or people needing cash by pawning items so they are all unique.Albeit FS messed up by not twigging that multiple loans were made to single borrowers without FS being aware....this changed the risk for me as I unwittingly invested a lot of cash with one borrower.This should have been picked up by someone and eventually by the FCA but they neglected to do so under light touch regulation.So we have a shambles like the Art loans...under vlauation and negligence by surveyors in C****** h**** and the D***....many of these loans are zombies and I am invested in many ...on the other side there are decent loans...well I would like to think there were....but are you saying that we sell the complete loan book off to another P2P lender for 50 percent and just divide the proceeds up as you would in shares in companies so that the bad loand rank equal to the lets just say not so bad ones.......dont think it would matter much to me either way as have a few bad loans but if I was invested in better loans I would be annoyed at that proposal...It might well be the best proposal but as mentioned before it might be the best way forward to achieve a better return...one thing for sure ...I will never touch P2P again
I think the idea that there are two group of lenders 1) with great loans and 2) one with bad loans, is a myth. As the information in the prospectuses was no where near enough to make a valid judgement on the soundness of the loan, almost all investors will have a mixture of totally dud and very smelly loans. Even loans that repay are dodgy as no idea what deductions will make made before money can be withdrawn. I am not actually that fussed if the administrators want to use some intelligent formula to distribute the proceeds of selling the loan book off. I readily admit my loan book is a dogs dinner, however I suspect almost everybody else’s is too and if people are claiming theirs is a bed of roses I suspect they haven’t looked closely enough! I do think that people are getting too bogged down in not wanting to admit the failings of their own egos. I have sympathy for anybody claiming that their loans are good, they will get capital plus interest back etc....but people in this camp are in my opinion totally out of touch with the reality of the situation and how administrations inevitably lead to rich administrators and disappointed creditors. This is why I didn’t even want to recognise the authority of the administrators to manage to loan book but nobody listened.
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11025
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Post by 11025 on Dec 28, 2019 10:37:20 GMT
Apologies ...trying to get the hang of using the quote and had to edit the previous post so Ive posted my reply again below
In normal administrations it is one company or its feeder companies that go under but my understanding is we have 100s of different loans to 100s of developers or people needing cash by pawning items so they are all unique.Albeit FS messed up by not twigging that multiple loans were made to single borrowers without FS being aware....this changed the risk for me as I unwittingly invested a lot of cash with one borrower.This should have been picked up by someone and eventually by the FCA but they neglected to do so under light touch regulation.So we have a shambles like the Art loans...under vlauation and negligence by surveyors in C****** h**** and the D***....many of these loans are zombies and I am invested in many ...on the other side there are decent loans...well I would like to think there were....but are you saying that we sell the complete loan book off to another P2P lender for 50 percent and just divide the proceeds up as you would in shares in companies so that the bad loand rank equal to the lets just say not so bad ones.......dont think it would matter much to me either way as have a few bad log51317115412timistic valuations.ans but if I was invested in better loans I would be annoyed at that proposal...It might well be the best proposal but as mentioned before it might be the best way forward to achieve a better return...one thing for sure ...I will never touch P2P again
I think the idea that there are two group of lenders 1) with great loans and 2) one with bad loans, is a myth. As the information in the prospectuses was no where near enough to make a valid judgement on the soundness of the loan, almost all investors will have a mixture of totally dud and very smelly loans. Even loans that repay are dodgy as no idea what deductions will make made before money can be withdrawn. I am not actually that fussed if the administrators want to use some intelligent formula to distribute the proceeds of selling the loan book off. I readily admit my loan book is a dogs dinner, however I suspect almost everybody else’s is too and if people are claiming theirs is a bed of roses I suspect they haven’t looked closely enough! I do think that people are getting too bogged down in not wanting to admit the failings of their own egos. I have sympathy for anybody claiming that their loans are good, they will get capital plus interest back etc....but people in this camp are in my opinion totally out of touch with the reality of the situation and how administrations inevitably lead to rich administrators and disappointed creditors. This is why I didn’t even want to recognise the authority of the administrators to manage to loan book but nobody listened. I totally agree , you may have done your DD and checked everything on the loan you invested in but that is worth nothing if FS have supplied duff information and highly optimistic valuations , which is more likely than not.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 28, 2019 10:40:37 GMT
... What do I think we could get for the entire loan book - 50% if we are lucky
... That would be extremely lucky, first how many organisations have that sort of cash lying about? If they did they would want to make a big profit to make the risk worthwhile. If you assume the loan book is actually 'optimistically' worth 50% of the value of the loans outstanding, I wouldn't expect anyone to pay more than 1/3 of that to allow for costs and profit, maybe 10% to 20% of the total loan book.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 28, 2019 14:21:51 GMT
Fools I think we agree the whole thing is a mess. I think our difference is that I think the catastrophe has already happened, i.e. most loans are so far gone that a decent return is in my opinion very, very unlikely. This is no matter how much of what proceeds there are we agree to hand over to administrators. In my opinion a 50% return on assets will not happen no matter the route taken from here, no debt collection company will pay that to buy these stinky loans and administrators will never be able to return that much, certainly after their fees. Remember administrators are not debt collection experts, we will likely be paying them to administer contracts with third parties to recover the debts. This is why I think it would be best for all if the loan book was auctioned off and proceeds returned to investors. Personally I slightly question whether you and others here understand how bad the situation is. People talking about 50p in the pound return from here, I personally think anything over 10p would be a surprise! I have been through administrations before and usually its a couple of pence at best. And yes we also agree the FCA's regulation of p2p lenders has been a total joke. I actually think we would have been better with no FCA at all, at least then people would have known that its a wild west of an industry. Tha assets are not only worth 10% of their value and as secured creditors you get first bite after administration fees As shown by recently recovered loans. I think investors in “Ladybank” might not agree to an auction it has and will perform to the best of standards and will pay fully less fees. There is no need to fire sale just wait at least a year. Rather than sale which might have huge legal difficulties given lenders hold the security. It would be better to offer the borrowers a discount to pay back. This would be cheaper even if you write off 100% of interest debt as a start. The chances of getting more rather than bankruptcy for every borrower as that is the only way the debt would be expunged. If auctioned loans would need to be split by risk and not bundled together and investors decide.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 28, 2019 14:56:21 GMT
The point seems to be missed the company is “In Administration “ NOT “In Liquidation “
People with agendas to scare people like to put totally fictitious scenarios without one proven fact to back it up.
P2P is a very complex investment platform with multiple legal issues not easy solved so there is no playbook to follow.
Please show the figures for previous failures that show the tiny returns for P2P as that is only viable comparison.
Don’t just drag up the few disastrous single loans and say everything else is the same.
Everybody relax and be patient nobody except those that recognise a bargain win in a panic sale.
Why would someone buy unless they were sure of a profit. Let the administrators get that profit for us not just give it away to others.
Their only intervention to date is positive and anyone who’s portfolio consisted of the last few loans would be very happy.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 14:57:54 GMT
Is that from a 'quickie' sale of the whole book; or as a total of returns from individual redemption?
good question - I estimate 50% from individual redemption - I agree with the points made about having to reduce this sum realised if the loan book is ditched - looking at the poll for estimated losses I thought some of the 60% loss results were a bit pessimistic but after such useful comments from people with relevant experience I am not so sure these mega losses are not going to happen! Valid though my original concerns were about the viability of many loans as per my top 40 I think my original logic was poor as I failed to realise just what an almighty shambles this p2p platform was from start to finish - I am also extremely concerned about just what role the directors played and why they bought this platform in the first place.
Guess we will just have to wait until the New Year to hear what the next stage will be...
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 28, 2019 15:03:04 GMT
Is that from a 'quickie' sale of the whole book; or as a total of returns from individual redemption? good question - I estimate 50% from individual redemption - I agree with the points made about having to reduce this sum realised if the loan book is ditched - looking at the poll for estimated losses I thought some of the 60% loss results were a bit pessimistic but after such useful comments from people with relevant experience I am not so sure these mega losses are not going to happen! Valid though my original concerns were about the viability of many loans as per my top 40 I think my original logic was poor as I failed to realise just what an almighty shambles this p2p platform was from start to finish - I am also extremely concerned about just what role the directors played and why they bought this platform in the first place. Guess we will just have to wait until the New Year to hear what the next stage will be... Hi Adrian the last few repayments have been 100% capital never mind interest so where does the 50% come from ? That you expect.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 28, 2019 15:08:52 GMT
Tha assets are not only worth 10% of their value and as secured creditors you get first bite after administration fees As shown by recently recovered loans. I think investors in “Ladybank” might not agree to an auction it has and will perform to the best of standards and will pay fully less fees. There is no need to fire sale just wait at least a year. Rather than sale which might have huge legal difficulties given lenders hold the security. It would be better to offer the borrowers a discount to pay back. This would be cheaper even if you write off 100% of interest debt as a start. The chances of getting more rather than bankruptcy for every borrower as that is the only way the debt would be expunged. If auctioned loans would need to be split by risk and not bundled together and investors decide. Seems like a better way of doing things to offer a discount to the borrower so that they pay less or NO INTEREST and repay the capital and treat each loan individually so we can extract the best return as possible.
Only the CC know what the administrators intentions are .Have the management of FS mismanaged ALL the loans or just some?
A question asked by .....DUCK.....I received an email that was confidentially sent out to all investors and dont think I can copy paste on a public forum re the Lytham loan but something dodgy has went on in that one and there are many connected loans from individual borrowers that we as investors have not been aware of.
Personally I wouldnt have invested in any connected loan and if the borrower has applied for other loans without stating that they have connected loans then all loans are should be put under scrutiny by the lender to gauge risk and passed to the investor.
If information has been withheld to obtain a loan then this is fraud...really this should have been flagged up by the FCA so they have a responsibility rather than just say its light touch regulation....the phrase light touch regulation should have been a warning to us all as this phrase was one of the causes of the banking crisis
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