foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 28, 2019 15:10:47 GMT
Is that from a 'quickie' sale of the whole book; or as a total of returns from individual redemption? good question - I estimate 50% from individual redemption - I agree with the points made about having to reduce this sum realised if the loan book is ditched - looking at the poll for estimated losses I thought some of the 60% loss results were a bit pessimistic but after such useful comments from people with relevant experience I am not so sure these mega losses are not going to happen! Valid though my original concerns were about the viability of many loans as per my top 40 I think my original logic was poor as I failed to realise just what an almighty shambles this p2p platform was from start to finish - I am also extremely concerned about just what role the directors played and why they bought this platform in the first place. Guess we will just have to wait until the New Year to hear what the next stage will be... Hi Adrian the last few repayments have been 100% capital never mind interest so where does the 50% come from ? That you expect. Is the recently repaid loans not the low hanging fruit?
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 28, 2019 15:31:16 GMT
Hi Adrian the last few repayments have been 100% capital never mind interest so where does the 50% come from ? That you expect. Is the recently repaid loans not the low hanging fruit? I'd say they were the low hanging fruit. It does need to be factored into total loan book returns to give the blended result of the Administration (and eventual Liquidation) as those redemptions occurred post 23rd October 2019. The duff loans - and there are plenty of 'em - will bring that 100% down significantly when looking at the total loan book return. How much by, nobody knows. (But we're all entitled to guess )
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 17:34:34 GMT
very true and although pleased I am surprised the service station loans came good - that said such loans are going to be less and less and the months go by - at the same time the percentage of duff loans in the loan book is going to be more and more. If we take the series of 4 indexed loans that alone is a total of over £17m which are highly problematic so say a generous £10m loss there - speedboats another £1m (and that is excluding the endurance boat) art loans a possible £3m loss so that is already a very quick possible £14m loss. We have numerous other farces e.g Welsh hotel , Barnoldswick Lennymuir all expected to be mega losses throw in administrator and recovery costs and yes I can easily foresee a 50% loss!
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Dec 28, 2019 17:55:24 GMT
very true although not missed as I really can't see what difference it makes - the loan book is a pile of pants however you cut it - true a small percent are coming good but there are MANY big ones which have zero chance of doing this and plenty of others that have a very good chance of realising nothing precisely nothing e.g. art loans,Barnoldswich cottage etc
nobody here (as far as I can see) has an agenda to scare anybody - hardly as if any of us are going to bid on the loan book is it! The loan book is rubbish, the business model was rubbish, the "management" was rubbish, the FCA were rubbish, dubious claims of trading plans making 15%+ or whatever were rubbish - only sound advice was offered by several of us viz - get the hell out of FS!
FS has gone the way of the Labour Party , the Lib-Dems and the remoaners - stuffed good and proper not that some people are refusing to accept this fact.
Nobody will be happier than I if we get a recovery of over 50% but I really can't see it which is not the same as any of us scaring anybody...
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pip
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Post by pip on Dec 28, 2019 19:53:07 GMT
This will be my final post on this thread as seem to be going round in circles. I clearly will not change the mind of others, so I give up.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 28, 2019 21:08:56 GMT
This will be my final post on this thread as seem to be going round in circles. I clearly will not change the mind of others, so I give up.Pip Pip.....Debate and opinion is good and I welcome your input as this allows the reader to adjust their opinion .I appreciate all views so keep posting..... Thanks
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 28, 2019 22:14:36 GMT
I think the idea that there are two group of lenders 1) with great loans and 2) one with bad loans, is a myth. As the information in the prospectuses was no where near enough to make a valid judgement on the soundness of the loan, almost all investors will have a mixture of totally dud and very smelly loans. Even loans that repay are dodgy as no idea what deductions will make made before money can be withdrawn. I am not actually that fussed if the administrators want to use some intelligent formula to distribute the proceeds of selling the loan book off. I readily admit my loan book is a dogs dinner, however I suspect almost everybody else’s is too and if people are claiming theirs is a bed of roses I suspect they haven’t looked closely enough! I do think that people are getting too bogged down in not wanting to admit the failings of their own egos. I have sympathy for anybody claiming that their loans are good, they will get capital plus interest back etc....but people in this camp are in my opinion totally out of touch with the reality of the situation and how administrations inevitably lead to rich administrators and disappointed creditors. This is why I didn’t even want to recognise the authority of the administrators to manage to loan book but nobody listened. I totally agree , you may have done your DD and checked everything on the loan you invested in but that is worth nothing if FS have supplied duff information and highly optimistic valuations , which is more likely than not. While the idea of selling the whole loan book as a single lump and distributing the proceeds evenly to all investors sounds like a simple solution, I'm in the group that considers that to be a grossly unfair result. I accept that investors who selected which loans to invest in based on inaccurate or missing -- such as a failure to disclose connected loans -- info from FS may have made poor choices, selective investors also may have made some appropriate choices.
One area where FS seem to have made a reasonable effort at disclosure doesn't seem to have been mentioned in this thread, and that is loan priority where a borrower has multiple FS loans secured by a single property (or collection). At Formby and Lytham, for instance, there are first-priority loans, second-priority loans, and even lower-priority loans. (There are more examples as well.) To treat those loans as equal in distributing the proceeds from a loan book sale would be completely nonsensical. If the security itself were to be liquidated, the proceeds would go to the first-priority loan investors until they had received all their capital AND ALL THEIR ACCRUED INTEREST before a penny would go to the investors in the lower-priority loans. This has to be recognised when any proceeds are distributed.
I certainly don't claim to have done all the DD I could have, nor that the DD I did do was particularly thorough, but I did generally manage to avoid investing in lower-priority loans. As a result, I am hopeful that my FS loss will be a bit smaller (percentage-wise) than that of the 'average' FS investor. It still will be large, though, because I still had a significant sum invested in FS when the plug was pulled.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 28, 2019 22:19:53 GMT
This will be my final post on this thread as seem to be going round in circles. I clearly will not change the mind of others, so I give up.Pip Pip.....Debate and opinion is good and I welcome your input as this allows the reader to adjust their opinion .I appreciate all views so keep posting..... Thanks
Everyone should keep posting as long as there is merit and proof to back up what is said. Speculation only worries those with the narrowest shoulders that think a quick resolution is best. There may be a degree of sell off quick and get something which could be spread by those wishing to reduce the price and may pick up a bargain either individually or in consort with others. There are certainly a few investors in FS who could collectively come up with £40 Mil to buy the whole loanbook with an obvious return of cash to themselves and assets worth considerably more than their additional investment.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Dec 28, 2019 23:06:13 GMT
There are certainly a few investors in FS who could collectively come up with £40 Mil to buy the whole loanbook with an obvious return of cash to themselves and assets worth considerably more than their additional investment. Perhaps we should collectively offer to join them so that we can share in the spoils!
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 29, 2019 0:23:35 GMT
There are certainly a few investors in FS who could collectively come up with £40 Mil to buy the whole loanbook with an obvious return of cash to themselves and assets worth considerably more than their additional investment. Perhaps we should collectively offer to join them so that we can share in the spoils! Would be one way out and would return some money to ALL. As in life in general the rich get richer unfair but true.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 29, 2019 0:38:46 GMT
I know the figure of 50 percent recovery has been banded about but when I first invested in FS all the loans were approximately no more than 70 per cent LTV so my thinking as a current property developer is that if the asset is valued correctly by a qualified surveyor and an equivalent of a home report/mortgage valuation/equivalent is made then in the event that the borrower fails to pay then the asset it is then seized and sent to auction where the property would achieve 70 percent of its value returning my capital and the risk was the interest accrued would not be paid.
I certainly didnt expect that the asset would be valued at a fraction of the value given by the surveyor....is the administrators going to chase the surveyors insurance cover and also hold the borrowers to their personal guarantees?
This whole thing stinks of criminality and fraud and the FCA has a lot to answer for hence my complaint to the FCA that I copied from this website
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 29, 2019 11:21:45 GMT
Pip.....Debate and opinion is good and I welcome your input as this allows the reader to adjust their opinion .I appreciate all views so keep posting..... Thanks
Everyone should keep posting as long as there is merit and proof to back up what is said. Speculation only worries those with the narrowest shoulders that think a quick resolution is best. There may be a degree of sell off quick and get something which could be spread by those wishing to reduce the price and may pick up a bargain either individually or in consort with others. There are certainly a few investors in FS who could collectively come up with £40 Mil to buy the whole loan book with an obvious return of cash to themselves and assets worth considerably more than their additional investment. Are you stating as a provable (and therefore merit-worthy) fact that the loan book - as it stood at the point of Administration - is 'obviously' worth " considerably more" than £40 Mil? Or are you speculating that it is? Either way, are you prepared to put a figure on it?
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Dec 29, 2019 11:36:15 GMT
Pip.....Debate and opinion is good and I welcome your input as this allows the reader to adjust their opinion .I appreciate all views so keep posting..... Thanks
Everyone should keep posting as long as there is merit and proof to back up what is said. Speculation only worries those with the narrowest shoulders that think a quick resolution is best. There may be a degree of sell off quick and get something which could be spread by those wishing to reduce the price and may pick up a bargain either individually or in consort with others. There are certainly a few investors in FS who could collectively come up with £40 Mil to buy the whole loanbook with an obvious return of cash to themselves and assets worth considerably more than their additional investment. So what are you saying is that if the loan book is worth 80 Million and a large investor whether or not he is invested in FS or not comes in and buys the "Whole Loan Book " for 40 Million which is a 50 percent return to Investors that would be acceptable?
It might be a good deal for the buyer and he may be invested in FS and he could average down his losses but its still a 50 percent loss to most investors? whether that is a good deal to each investor would be down to their interpretation of acceptable losses.
But please clarify what you mean exactly
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taffy
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Post by taffy on Dec 29, 2019 11:38:10 GMT
Hi Adrian the last few repayments have been 100% capital never mind interest so where does the 50% come from ? That you expect. Is the recently repaid loans not the low hanging fruit?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 29, 2019 11:48:19 GMT
Why is everyone asking people who regularly pluck numbers from their arse which exact part of their arse they're plucking it from?
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