j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Nov 17, 2014 22:25:08 GMT
UK debt now stands at a handsome £1.4 trillion. Japan has gone back into recession, minutes after coming out of it. Most of the EU is in recession or near enough heading that way. The US...don't start me!
Are we going to endure another financial/economic crisis soon?
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bugs4me
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Post by bugs4me on Nov 17, 2014 22:55:37 GMT
UK debt now stands at a handsome £1.4 trillion. Japan has gone back into recession, minutes after coming out of it. Most of the EU is in recession or near enough heading that way. The US...don't start me! Are we going to endure another financial/economic crisis soon? The whole economic scenario is glossed. So a country drops say 10% in qtr1. Then another 10% in qtr2. In qtr3 it manages a miserly 0.1% growth and hey presto, it's no longer in recession and there's high fives all round. Such is the way that the politicians present stuff these days and all governments can massage a 0.1% growth simply to stay out of recession. Reminds me of when the Chancellor some time ago announced a 1% increase in NI contributions. Sorry guys but going from 10% to 11% is a 10% increase - not 1%. Whatever the figures may say, are we really out of the last crash? Getting late - time for zzzzzland.
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Post by batchoy on Nov 18, 2014 8:07:00 GMT
UK debt now stands at a handsome £1.4 trillion. Japan has gone back into recession, minutes after coming out of it. Most of the EU is in recession or near enough heading that way. The US...don't start me! Are we going to endure another financial/economic crisis soon? What do you mean another financial/economic crisis, we haven't exited the current one yet, but if you are asking will the current crisis get worse then yes. The interesting thing with Japan is that they have spent the past 25 years trying everything that other central banks are currently doing to bring themselves out of recession but as soon as they started to normalize their economy it has become apparent that despite all the money that has been created and pumped at the top little or none of it has trickled down to those who actually drive the economy, namely the man and woman in the street and with the prospect of increased taxation they have simply stopped spending and the economy has stalled.
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
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Post by j on Nov 18, 2014 10:16:23 GMT
UK debt now stands at a handsome £1.4 trillion. Japan has gone back into recession, minutes after coming out of it. Most of the EU is in recession or near enough heading that way. The US...don't start me! Are we going to endure another financial/economic crisis soon?
You can tell that trying to sound like a politician isn't my forte! 
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
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Post by j on Nov 18, 2014 10:23:09 GMT
Statistically, post WWII, global economic expansions, have lasted 8-10 years. The last 3 big crises/recessions happened in 1987/88 (equity crash, junk bond bubble), 1997/98 (Asian crisis, Russia default, LTCM) and 2007/08 (Bear Sterns, Lehman, AIG). So we're due one in about 1-3 years. Normally, higher policy rates combined with rising leverage trigger the crisis. This time, however, rates are still close to the zero bound almost 6 years after the crisis hit. This is also one of the slowest global economic expansions observed. While the US and UK have completed QE, Europe and Japan are still in the early stages of balance sheet expansion and EM countries' growth continues to be marked lower. The negative is that deleveraging never really occurred after this crisis. Instead leverage was moved from corporations to sovereigns and households. ; Western countries and their citizens are up to their eyeballs in debt. So if the "secular stagnation" thesis is correct, it's plausible to think it might take longer than normal for the crisis to be triggered. Instead we're more likely to endure the slow train-wreck that is caused by a debt-deflation spiral. I don't lose any sleep over the UK debt position. £1.4 trillion is going to be but a flesh wound compared to the £5 trillion unfunded UK state and public sector pension deficit, especially when those boomers start to retire in scale.
Govermentise institutions again?! The government is even more questionable than big business. £1.4 trillion is going to be but a flesh wound compared to the £5 trillion unfunded UK state and public sector pension deficit, especially when those boomers start to retire in scale
What is the solution? Printing more money will I assume devalue the £. Reducing pension payments for people who saved all their years in expectation of a certain level of income will cause an uproar. Certainly not a Cyprus solution where a big chunk of your hard earnt savings are siphoned away overnight
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Post by yorkshireman on Nov 18, 2014 12:11:24 GMT
Perhaps I made the right decision by keeping faith in gold.
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 18, 2014 12:22:47 GMT
Rhubarb prices are stable.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Nov 18, 2014 12:23:39 GMT
Perhaps I made the right decision by keeping faith in gold. Ooh heck 
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j
Member of DD Central
Penguins are very misunderstood!
Posts: 2,188
Likes: 540
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Post by j on Nov 18, 2014 13:07:46 GMT
Rhubarb prices are stable. How do you hedge against banana price fluctuations? 
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 18, 2014 13:12:24 GMT
Fluctuate my consumption of bananas in inverse proportion.  |
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Investor
Member of DD Central
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Post by Investor on Nov 18, 2014 13:54:43 GMT
Rhubarb prices are stable. How do you hedge against banana price fluctuations? Too much corruption. The entire market place is bent
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Post by jevans4949 on Nov 18, 2014 19:51:46 GMT
Not sure we ever recovered from Black Friday / Monday.
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