cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 4, 2021 7:50:42 GMT
The missing variable is - if it goes to the moon, you miss out on the upside. That is the trade-off.Oh, and one more thing occurs to me - get yourself a good accountant. The tax treatment of option positions is 'interesting' I haven't really looked at this sort of thing (I decided it was above my pay grade) and may be mis-remembering what I read, but I also thought the whole point of Put orders was to hedge against a drop in price (but you miss out on the upside), but I thought you paid a premium for that cwah seems to have been paid a premium is he on the other side of the deal? Or is the amount he received the remains of the sell price after the premium was paid. Confused I am, although that's not difficult in this sort of discussion, but I would be interested to understand. I m selling the put. Not buying it
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 4, 2021 7:52:48 GMT
I actually follow very closely Tesla and that's why I buy it. I reckon it's quite overpriced but its grow is damn impressive. Answering some of your point: - Yes crypto will impact its treasury due to Bitcoin dropping in half. About $100M in losses will be declared next quarter - The model S has just been refreshed. It's called the Plaid. You should look at it. It's the fastest production car in history. - Delay don't really matter much as demand is off the roof. They have done massive delivery this quarter of 200k cars. 80% growth YoY. Do you know any manufacturer doing that? I missed the initial buy and would like to put a position in it, this is potentially a way to get it. Although tbh, I'd much prefer get in at 50% or more discount. Plaid isn't a new model. It's just an ever-more-irrelevant performance hike to the ageing Model S - woo, the kind of acceleration figures bikes have been waving around for a decade and a bit. Plaid Plus has already been dropped. The "Palladium" facelift is no more than a new shade of lipstick on an elderly pig - S and X deliveries were just 1% of the total for Q2/21, one-tenth of the number shipped in Q2/19, but an increase on the grand total of zero built in Q1/21... I can think of a lot of car manufacturers shipping a lot more than 200k units in a quarter, yes. And the Model Y starting to come out of the Shanghai factory part-way through Q1 will certainly help their Q2 delivery figures - it's the make-or-break model. Medium-size crossovers are the market, which is precisely why the delays have been such a problem. If Musk isn't careful, the biggest problem arising from his crypto-hyping pump-and-dump misadventures won't be the bottom line. By the way, if you are so bearish against tesla, could you share who are serious tesla competitors? I can't see any electric car that is as good and priced as competitively than a tesla model 3 for example.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 4, 2021 8:05:45 GMT
Plaid isn't a new model. It's just an ever-more-irrelevant performance hike to the ageing Model S - woo, the kind of acceleration figures bikes have been waving around for a decade and a bit. Plaid Plus has already been dropped. The "Palladium" facelift is no more than a new shade of lipstick on an elderly pig - S and X deliveries were just 1% of the total for Q2/21, one-tenth of the number shipped in Q2/19, but an increase on the grand total of zero built in Q1/21... I can think of a lot of car manufacturers shipping a lot more than 200k units in a quarter, yes. And the Model Y starting to come out of the Shanghai factory part-way through Q1 will certainly help their Q2 delivery figures - it's the make-or-break model. Medium-size crossovers are the market, which is precisely why the delays have been such a problem. If Musk isn't careful, the biggest problem arising from his crypto-hyping pump-and-dump misadventures won't be the bottom line. By the way, if you are so bearish against tesla, could you share who are serious tesla competitors? I can't see any electric car that is as good and priced as competitively than a tesla model 3 for example. Most of the mainstream manufacturers have EVs in the showrooms now or soon which are right up there. VAG's EV range, particularly, is treading right on Musk's toes. Who's going to wait for a Model Y over a Q4 e.Tron/ID4/Enyaq/Cupra Born? I'm seeing quite a few ID3s and e-Golfs in everyday use round here, not many Model 3s. And that's before you get near the number of BEVs and PHEVs the Korean twins are churning out.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 4, 2021 9:24:09 GMT
There are not many model 3 because they are all sold out of stock. You need to wait for 3 months to get a model 3 when you live in the US. Tesla is building a mega factory in berlin so it would help to decrease price and get more production. It's a nice problem to have to be sold out for years due to large demand... Also, I've been comparing the ID.3 Vs the model 3. The model 3 is now sold from £41k in the UK www.tesla.com/en_gb/model3/design#overviewRange: 278 miles top speed: 140mph acceleration to 60mph: 5.3s The ID.3 Pro S is the closest in term of price range sold at £42.6k : ev-database.uk/car/1203/Volkswagen-ID3-Pro-SRange: 280 miles top speed: 99mph acceleration to 60mph: 7.9s So if I were to buy an electric car at that price level, I'd definitely pick the Model 3 over the ID.3 just from the spec alone. And would even more convinced by Tesla with all the auto pilot features and the brand name. Tesla doesn't spend a cent in advertising. Of course, their car is still in the higher price band and even thought it's more mainstream, a lot of people can't afford to fork £40k. They are in talk to make a cheaper model, but in their price bracket I do not see serious competitor.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 4, 2021 11:38:01 GMT
There are not many model 3 because they are all sold out of stock. You need to wait for 3 months to get a model 3 when you live in the US. They've been delivering them to the UK market for two years, with about 35k registered according to HML. (10k S, delivered for nine years. 6.5k X, delivered for four years.) ID3 deliveries started in September, and there's about 5k on the road so far. Which, yes, makes it strange that I'm seeing more of them around... but hey-ho. Despite data not being the plural of anecdote, I have two friends who live within a couple of miles of me with ID3s, I know one person nationally with an X. Which is late... And that's why the critical Model Y isn't going to be shipping to the European market until the middle of next year at the earliest. fortune.com/2021/06/17/tesla-berlin-factory-delays-2021/Indeed. Because both are on the roads now. Meanwhile, here in the real world, crossovers outsell "traditional" hatches massively. Which is why the Y/ID4 comparison is more important, since they're the on-stilts versions of each. When did you last have a car at three figure speeds on the road? Honestly...? My current daily is officially flat at 90mph with the official 0-60 coming in at a gnat's under 20 sec. It's simply not an issue on real-world roads (although I'll grant that it's certainly not the most relaxed motorway cruiser, because the gearing's so low it's revving its nadgers off. Not an issue for a BEV.). And that's the fastest vehicle in my fleet right now... Somewhere between utterly over-hyped and illegal to use. And not cheap, either... £3.5k option for basically hyped-up adaptive cruise, standard on even the basic ID3, to £7k for the full illegal-to-use, willy-wave, smear-you-against-a-stationary-truck gadget. All the stranger to compare the top of the ID3 range (which starts below £30k) with the very bottom of the Model 3, then. But, of course, your chosen comparison is based on range - which is something that BEV evangelists have been telling sceptics for years is irrelevant... Most new cars are PCPd or leased, though. Good luck finding a Model 3 lease within a country mile of an ID3. A very quick look finds £250/mo for the VW, £400 for the Tesla.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jul 4, 2021 11:54:40 GMT
And would even more convinced by Tesla with all the auto pilot features Sadly I think the chances of a Tesla vehicle on "auto pilot" wiping out a bus full of school kids is far higher than the chances of Tesla (or anybody else for that matter) managing to pull off fully autonomous safe driving any time soon. However I grant you if I'm wrong and they do manage it Tesla stock is going to the moon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2021 12:36:17 GMT
I haven't really looked at this sort of thing (I decided it was above my pay grade) and may be mis-remembering what I read, but I also thought the whole point of Put orders was to hedge against a drop in price (but you miss out on the upside), but I thought you paid a premium for that cwah seems to have been paid a premium is he on the other side of the deal? Or is the amount he received the remains of the sell price after the premium was paid. Confused I am, although that's not difficult in this sort of discussion, but I would be interested to understand. Short answer is - he has sold the put option, not bought it - so the buyer has purchased the right to sell to him, in exchange for a premium. He misses out on the upside if Tesla rises without first falling to his purchase price. He still has all the downside if Tesla goes bust though (minus the premium he received). I use this strategy myself on shares I already hold for the long term - eg if I own 10,000 shares of something at 100p, I'll sell (put) options to sell more to me at 90p, and sell (call) options to buy some from me at 110p, etc. Very similar to buying more when the price drops, and selling some when it rises... except you get paid a premium for the privilege.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 4, 2021 22:18:55 GMT
Guys, you can talk all you want but Tesla cars are so appreciated that both the Model 3 and Y are in the top 2021 American Made Index: www.cars.com/american-made-index/Also, something to compare against other car manufacturers, is that compounding is the 8th wonder of the world: Musk projected years ago that Tesla is going to increase car sales by at least 50% / year. They've been doing that for over a decade now. It won't take very long for the profit to catch up the current overvalued price if it keeps compounding at that rate.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jul 5, 2021 7:23:37 GMT
And would even more convinced by Tesla with all the auto pilot features Sadly I think the chances of a Tesla vehicle on "auto pilot" wiping out a bus full of school kids is far higher than the chances of Tesla (or anybody else for that matter) managing to pull off fully autonomous safe driving any time soon. However I grant you if I'm wrong and they do manage it Tesla stock is going to the moon. I have seen statistics that show that a Tesla driven with any of the driver assist features enabled is significantly safer than the average human with no assistance.
My personal experience is that I find the auto pilot to be cautious and much more likely to stop than wipe anything out.
Clearly, unless fully autonomous driving is demonstrably safer than human controlled it will not be legalised.
I do not believe that any of the cars available for sale today to the general public will be permitted to drive fully autonomously without a human in the driving seat. To achieve the required levels of reliability and resilience I suspect that it will be necessary to have multiple AIs operating in parallel with separate sensor systems and for some time at least this may make the vehicles too expensive and possibly too ugly for private purchase.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 5, 2021 8:06:00 GMT
Sadly I think the chances of a Tesla vehicle on "auto pilot" wiping out a bus full of school kids is far higher than the chances of Tesla (or anybody else for that matter) managing to pull off fully autonomous safe driving any time soon. However I grant you if I'm wrong and they do manage it Tesla stock is going to the moon. I have seen statistics that show that a Tesla driven with any of the driver assist features enabled is significantly safer than the average human with no assistance. My personal experience is that I find the auto pilot to be cautious and much more likely to stop than wipe anything out. www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-safety-agency-says-it-has-opened-probes-into-10-tesla-crash-deaths-since-2016-2021-06-17/The problem, however, is Tesla's marketing of the "Autopilot" functionality. You don't even need look beyond the name. There are six levels of autonomous driving. Level 2 - advanced driver assistance - is the point of maximum current legality. It's also the point of maximum production availability... Audi got near to offering claimed level 3 in 2019, but bottled out at the last minute. www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.htmlHow many other manufacturers offer similar L2 driver assistance? Several. How many others have had multiple instances of drivers being so cretinous and arrogant as to get out of the driving seat while using it...? None. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKlivTr0EE4And, yes, people are capable of doing things this stupid without the help of technology... But why encourage it? www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3hrKnv0dPQ
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 5, 2021 18:31:22 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 5, 2021 19:10:00 GMT
In June. Yet not even in the top 10 for YTD. Bust? No, not yet. My money would be be on being bought. But take the world over, and continue at ridiculous bubble valuation? Not a hope.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Jul 5, 2021 19:24:40 GMT
They have $600B market cap, they are too big to be bought. Even Apple can't buy it anymore.
They are the one who can buy other companies now.
Most people agree that Tesla is overvalued, me included. But that doesn't mean they'll tank down due to spectacular results they are achieving at the moment.
That's why I put a very LONG put to own it. Ideally I'd like to get half price, or even 30% price. But I'm getting a long put for now.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jul 5, 2021 21:58:41 GMT
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Jul 6, 2021 6:33:14 GMT
Hello, I discovered option trading recently and was even more interested when I learn that Warren Buffett himself does that. He does long dated put in order to buy stock he loves at lower price! Isn't that great? But stock and be paid for owning it! Here's what I did: - Sold 1 Tesla put at $690 expiring in Jan 2023 with a premium of $198.89. - That means I guarantee to buy 100 Tesla shares in 19 months at $492 ($690-$198 = 30% discount of the current price). - I received $19800 in my account doing this strategy, which is about 30% discount from the stock price ($69k), and equivalent to 1.5% interest / month. (30%/19month = 1.5%/month) That sounds amazing, the big risk is of course if Tesla drop more than 30%. But apart from that, it looks like a great way to make money. Bonus is that I receive the cash from Day 1 and I can do anything I want from it. Isn't that great? I feel like it's earning too much for doing nothing, I'm going to get about $800/month just owning this option! I wonder why I invested in P2P instead of buying option earlier! "I discovered option trading recently"
Just be careful cwah. I traded options in the city for 20 years and wouldn't consider doing this trade. You have "just discovered option trading" and have shorted puts on one of the most volatile stocks in the market - fine if you want to take big risks but you are certainly not "earning too much for doing nothing". If you don't know what the terms volatility or implied volatility mean then look them up - option trading is interesting but theres a boat load of risks in there that I doubt you are aware of or have considered. And I can tell you one thing - everyone would "love to own such and such a stock 30% (or whatever) lower" - right up to the point where it drops 30%. Being short options in a volatile market is extremely stressful, and that was when I was doing it with someone elses money!!
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