captainconfident
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Post by captainconfident on Jan 23, 2016 13:33:35 GMT
These are the runners in the 3.15 
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 23, 2016 17:26:18 GMT
I highly recommend watching the movie The Big Short that just came out. It is a fascinating but chilling account of why the 2008 financial meltdown occurred (and why another one will occur soon)
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kaya
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Post by kaya on Jan 23, 2016 17:30:34 GMT
kaya , is it your relentless positivity that keeps you going?  It must be! But please do not put your trust in gold, for that is the most worthless of all. As for the races, it is better to take a long punt at a 100-1 shot down at Rebs.
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Jan 23, 2016 17:58:10 GMT
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jan 23, 2016 20:31:33 GMT
I just purchased a canning machine to invest all my money into food.
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Post by highlandtiger on Jan 23, 2016 23:51:50 GMT
The truth is, the 'crash' of 2008 has never ended, it still continues, and its contagion is gradually spreading over the whole globe.  It may now be approaching its next major phase, who knows, but there can never be any return to what once was.  The gravy-train continues unchanged for the ultra-rich, of course, but there will be no general 'recovery'. Ultimately, never-ending economic growth - and expolitation, and greed - upon which the whole of civilization really depends, is obviously unsustainable, and complete economic collapse is an inevitable, eventual, certainty.  Some of the first casualties will be in peer-to-peer lending - a very new and untested form of money-market - and the so-called 'secured' property loans may well be the first to collapse. Eventually, however, not even your government-guaranteed money in the bank will be safe, or even worth anything at all.  Sorry to be so negative, but sometimes the truth hurts! Self-delusion is always easier.  Nothing you can do about it anyway, so sit back, relax, and be free!  [MODERATED]: Removed as inappropriate.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 24, 2016 9:47:10 GMT
I highly recommend watching the movie The Big Short that just came out. It is a fascination but chilling account of why the 2008 financial meltdown occurred (and why another one will occur soon) They always use to say never let the truth get in the way of a good story, and this is probably true of films as well. If the combined knowledge of the planets financial experts can't agree on whats going to happen next week (let alone next year), how can a load of film producers be so sure. Ultimately people make films to make money, not to predict the future.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jan 24, 2016 10:09:38 GMT
If the combined knowledge of the planets financial experts can't agree on whats going to happen next week (let alone next year), how can a load of film producers be so sure. Ultimately people make films to make money, not to predict the future. And they're rarely THAT good at foreseeing which do that.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2016 11:21:53 GMT
was it Keynes who said the only use for economists to try forecasting was to make astrologers look good a stopped clock is right twice a day The is a good article in the Economist this week, from memory it seems that there are more 3000 P2P portals in China of which some 300 CEOs are on the run following "defaults". Ain't it grand to live in a controlled economy  |
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Post by p2plender on Jan 24, 2016 11:39:48 GMT
Kaya I'm thinkin you're more of a funerals man rather than a wedding man??
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Post by Financial Thing on Jan 24, 2016 15:07:31 GMT
I highly recommend watching the movie The Big Short that just came out. It is a fascination but chilling account of why the 2008 financial meltdown occurred (and why another one will occur soon) They always use to say never let the truth get in the way of a good story, and this is probably true of films as well. If the combined knowledge of the planets financial experts can't agree on whats going to happen next week (let alone next year), how can a load of film producers be so sure. Ultimately people make films to make money, not to predict the future. I would certainly agree with you in most cases. But since you're on this forum, I'd go so far to say that financial markets interest you, as they do I. When I watched the film (read the book also), it really astounded me that there were a few people who knew the meltdown was coming, and prepared themselves perfectly for it. As much as I've studied this topic, I can ascertain The Big Short was a highly accurate account. I used to think that no one could predict the future of the financial markets as many of the financial experts are wrong most of the time. Now I 100% believe that there are people who have access to information that others don't and they know exactly what's going on in the markets. In fact in many cases, the markets can be controlled and manipulated. I really recommend the film.
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Liz
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Post by Liz on Jan 24, 2016 16:28:51 GMT
I wonder how many "experts" there are, that we don't hear about, that didn't forecast the 2008 crisis, or guessed wrong and lost their shirt in 2008? They certainly dont want to and aren't invited on Bloomberg.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Jan 24, 2016 17:34:23 GMT
I wonder how many "experts" there are, that we don't hear about, that didn't forecast the 2008 crisis, or guessed wrong and lost their shirt in 2008? I wonder how many 'experts' there are who did forecast a crisis -- which subsequently didn't happen? Whenever forecasting is involved, there will be a huge range of forecasts, and most of them will be wrong. It's then easy, after the fact, to find one forecaster who got it right and ascribe magical powers to them. But did they do so well because they were smart? Or because they were lucky? And could they do it again? People have been predicting property, or stock market, or commodity, price crashes for donkey's years. And we do have them periodically, so some of the forecasters will be right. But if you were to compare the performance of an investor who pulled out of property/shares/commodities every time there was a crash prediction with one who ignored all those predictions I think you'll find that the consistent investor would have done better than the in/out investor. We all know -- after the fact -- what we should have done. And anyone who actually did that would have been a winner. But it's knowing what we should do in advance that's the hard part.
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james
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Post by james on Jan 24, 2016 18:09:09 GMT
I wonder how many "experts" there are, that we don't hear about, that didn't forecast the 2008 crisis, or guessed wrong and lost their shirt in 2008? They certainly dont want to and aren't invited on Bloomberg. Don't know about experts but I used leveraged investing in 2009 and did well. Throughout much of 2014 and 2015 I was writing about increasing P2P to avoid exposure to equities that look over-valued and reduce risk. By the end of 2015 I had more than 60% of my money in P2P, cash or money market equivalents and to a much lesser extent short term bonds. Haven't worked out the exact figure yet but with so much in such areas a 20% equity drop was much less than it might have been for me. I'm not psychic, I can just see the trends in cyclically adjusted Price/earnings ratios for each market vs its mean and observe when they seem to be both well above the mean and becoming more sensitive to events. Not particularly useful for month by month timing but not at all bad for longer term positioning between and in or out of markets. On mikes1531's theme over the last 18 months or so I've been mentioning that increase in interest rates can be expected to cause capital losses for bond holders but those rates and the associated losses have yet to appear. It'll be right sometime, just no telling exactly when, and holding lots of long-dated bonds still looks like a bad idea for individuals to me. Directly holding P2P loans looks like a better move to me.
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kermie
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Post by kermie on Jan 24, 2016 19:29:32 GMT
I wonder how many 'experts' there are who did forecast a crisis -- which subsequently didn't happen? It's said that 29 out of the last 9 recessions were correctly forecast.
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It may now be approaching its next major phase, who knows, but there can never be any return to what once was. 
The gravy-train continues unchanged for the ultra-rich, of course, but there will be no general 'recovery'. Ultimately, never-ending economic growth - and expolitation, and greed - upon which the whole of civilization really depends, is obviously unsustainable, and complete economic collapse is an inevitable, eventual, certainty. 
Some of the first casualties will be in peer-to-peer lending - a very new and untested form of money-market - and the so-called 'secured' property loans may well be the first to collapse. Eventually, however, not even your government-guaranteed money in the bank will be safe, or even worth anything at all. 
