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Post by jabardolas on Apr 4, 2016 8:00:51 GMT
Not long ago bondora used to provide us with a more clear overview of the status of ours loans. So today I made my own pie chart and the defaulted loans are "out of charts".  I wonder if it just me, or you guys are also having this huge amount of defaults. |
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duck
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Post by duck on Apr 4, 2016 8:17:53 GMT
I don't have a pie chart available but your chart doesn't look unusual to me
If I drew a pie chart it would be distorted by the fact that I have made a fair number of withdrawals but to give you an idea .....
Taking the amount of default capital that I have outstanding today it represents 25.4% of my original total amount invested.
Current 'lates' stand at 6% of my original total amount invested.
These figures are again distorted (to the positive side) since I haven't invested in any new loans for a year so I have got over that hump of new loans defaulting.
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Post by Butch Cassidy on Apr 4, 2016 8:29:43 GMT
Sorry not capable of producing & uploading charts but my portfolio split is currently approx. current 77%, overdue 12% & 60+ 11% - Bondora return 27.5% but my realistic return nearer 20% - I no longer invest just running down naturally
I do however actively manage overdue & defaults by selling at discounts upto 85%, as I have absolutely no faith in Bondora or it's new DCA system producing more than single figure recovery % over the medium term.
Sold all my Spanish defaults as soon as it was possible on SM but having checked back on several usernames I had noted down no recoveries to date (approx. 2 years after last payments/defaulted) & from Bondora's own statistics on overall recovery since Q2 2014 % rates were 3,11,0,5,1,9 & 3 showing the days of 100%+ recovery are truly long gone.
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Post by rahafoorum on Apr 4, 2016 8:45:04 GMT
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Post by jabardolas on Apr 4, 2016 12:03:25 GMT
It certainly feels like I am never going to make any money out of bondora. Actually is does feel like I've lost a big part of it already.
What alternatives do you guys propose besides Mintos and Twino?
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jay
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Post by jay on Apr 12, 2016 2:14:11 GMT
Not long ago bondora used to provide us with a more clear overview of the status of ours loans. So today I made my own pie chart and the defaulted loans are "out of charts". I wonder if it just me, or you guys are also having this huge amount of defaults. When i was still investing i had huge amounts of default too, on 5000 invested ,after 2 years 1500 complete loss and 700 interest only or so.So the chart should be similar. I think you wont get much answers as the truth is most people are probably sick of it and just let the portfolio run down, its also hard to admit you had losses and that you were scammed. I can only tell to new users to stay away from that like plague....
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Post by oktaeder on Apr 12, 2016 14:15:45 GMT
jay I don't think so. Although having tots of defaults on bondora my returns are impressiv. And recovery works. I got more than 30% of the EAD from default. If the interest are 20% p.a. and more defaults are normal. But I only invest in estonian loans now. BTW with my API-plugin you can create such pie charts by one mouse click. Red is my biggest sector but anyway.
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jay
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Post by jay on Apr 13, 2016 0:57:53 GMT
Taking strictly estonian loans wasnt possible last time i checked, now maybe they changed their mind. I am not touching the new portfolio , not even bothering to check. As for the recovery 2 years later spain, slovakia , still at stage 1 with nothing at all recovered. Even if theres some miraculous recovery i bet it will just cover the new DCA fee.
Frankly any blog putting them on positive light had probably been bribed, i really have nothing positive to say about them.
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carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
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Post by carlos on Apr 13, 2016 9:12:46 GMT
jay I don't think so. Although having tots of defaults on bondora my returns are impressiv. And recovery works. I got more than 30% of the EAD from default. If the interest are 20% p.a. and more defaults are normal. But I only invest in estonian loans now. Do you mind sharing your strategy? Do you invest only in high grade EE loans or accross all ranges (A-HR)? Do you select any other features (mortgage, etc.)? Thank you!
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Post by oktaeder on Apr 13, 2016 11:48:39 GMT
Hi Carlos, I'm changing strategy from time to time. Last year I bought a lot on 2nd market with only interest in overdue and with big defaults. Those loans are no more available. So I buy on 1st market only "good" C-HR loans. I developed an own score based on the past default & recovery rates. Can tell you in a year whether that is a good idea. If recovery will stop I'll loose money. If final rates go up to 50%+ bondora will be my best investment.  Doesn't look so good, but after 2 1/2y outstanding principal is near to double of my invested amount. |
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Post by oktaeder on Apr 13, 2016 11:57:30 GMT
Country Repaid Defaulted Recovered
ALL 34.4% 48.7% 32.2%
EE 43.2% 26.3% 41.1%
ES 17.5% 108.4% 41.2%
FI 16.6% 65.2% 13.1%
SK 15.9% 84.7% 7.2%
To stay honest: ES recovery looks better than it is. I bought some extremly cheap loans having recovered almost full but with a lot of outstanding interests.
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carlos
I'm short Bondora and long p2p.
Posts: 104
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Post by carlos on Apr 13, 2016 12:41:12 GMT
Looks like nice high risk strategy  Thanks for sharing.. |
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Post by coolrunning on Apr 14, 2016 5:41:31 GMT
personally, I always believe I must have made a mistake when I see that oktaeder has bought a loan from me on the 2nd market. |
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JamesFrance
Member of DD Central
Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Apr 14, 2016 7:24:18 GMT
With all the continuing "Improvements" constantly changing things at Bondora I have decided that life is too short to be wasting the considerable amount of time needed to stay active in their market, so I am just letting what I have already run it's course and withdrawing all repayments to reduce exposure. My older loans continue to default faster than collections from already defaulted loans, so I don't see how anyone can know what return they will end up with. The latest blog post gave some idea of the number of staff employed to maintain the existing level of business and I wonder how it all gets paid for.
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james
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Post by james on Apr 14, 2016 12:18:49 GMT
personally, I always believe I must have made a mistake when I see that ... has bought a loan from me on the 2nd market. ... For purchases from me almost all have been shortly after a payment has been made before there's been a chance for me and other sellers to change the price, then resale a a higher price normally happens. Typical examples are these: <borrower name removed> 97700-491251 Bought 22 minutes after repayment to current. 27/12/14 0 26.51 44.58 44.58
06/01/2015 17:23 123456789012 - -0.66 660.34 Bondora fees
06/01/2015 17:23 <buyer name removed> - 43.83 661 Purchases/sales on secondary market
06/01/2015 17:01 <borrower name removed> 0.03 617.17 Late charges
06/01/2015 17:01 <borrower name removed> 0.01 617.14 Interest
06/01/2015 17:01 <borrower name removed> 0.06 617.13 Interest
05/01/2015 17:04 <borrower name removed> 2.01 492.39 Interest
05/01/2015 17:04 <borrower name removed> 0.04 490.38 Interest
05/01/2015 17:04 <borrower name removed> 0.75 490.34 Principal
No link for this one because it may be a real name, you can find it in the data dumps if you want to. I was selling partly because it was rescheduled, no sign that there was a later default and the payments appear to be on time at the moment. BO3K5A77 65767-370429 12 minutes after payment, still a little late probably
27/01/2015 18:12 123456789012 - -0.27 220.22 Bondora fees
27/01/2015 18:12 <buyer name removed> - 18.02 220.49 Purchases/sales on secondary market
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.88 200.91 Interest
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.04 200.03 Interest
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.6 199.99 Interest
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.02 199.39 Interest
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.48 199.37 Principal
27/01/2015 18:00 BO3K5A77 0.32 198.89 Principal
Later developments: currently in collection but hasn't defaulted, it seems, so my reason for selling was probably right even though the price wasn't. <borrower name removed> 32061-212988 Bought at 7% discount three minutes after payment that took it from late to current.
21/04/2015 21:03 123456789012 - -0.54 96.16 Bondora fees
21/04/2015 21:03 <buyer name removed> - 36.22 96.7 Purchases/sales on secondary market
21/04/2015 21:00 <borrower name removed> 0.53 60.48 Interest
21/04/2015 21:00 <borrower name removed> 0.73 59.95 Principal
Later developments, currently in collection but hasn't defaulted, it seems, so my reason for selling was probably right even though the price wasn't. 15/05/2015 07:42 <buyer name removed> - 8.08 725.13 Purchases/sales on secondary market
15/05/2015 07:42 123456789012 - -0.12 724.89 Bondora fees
keio250 90173-468798 14/05/15 -1 35.19 8.23 8.15
15/05/2015 07:42 <buyer name removed> - 7.92 717.05 Purchases/sales on secondary market
keio250 90173-468725 14/05/15 -3 36.67 8.23 7.98
15/05/2015 07:42 123456789012 - -0.12 725.01 Bondora fees
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.01 564.08 Interest
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.16 564.07 Interest
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.01 563.91 Interest
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.16 563.9 Interest
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.07 563.43 Principal
15/05/2015 02:45 keio250 0.07 563.36 Principal
Sometimes it's a little different, like this one: keio250 90173-468818 bought at 0% then relisted for +5%
27/10/2015 07:33 123456789012 - -0.12 717.93 Bondora fees
27/10/2015 07:33 <buyer name removed> - 7.83 718.05 Purchases/sales on secondary market
27/10/2015 02:56 keio250 0.08 706.48 Interest
27/10/2015 02:56 keio250 0.01 706.4 Interest
27/10/2015 02:56 keio250 0.06 706.39 Principal
Or this one: BOK75K14 116749-582408 just after payment but purchase/sale at par/32% so is OK
12/11/2015 07:31 123456789012 - -0.62 886.53 Bondora fees
12/11/2015 07:31 <buyer name removed> - 41.38 887.15 Purchases/sales on secondary market
12/11/2015 07:00 BOK75K14 0.99 845.77 Interest
In those two cases I just wanted the loan sold, though the buyer probably then made a profit on the resale flip. The keio250 payment pattern still looks like the one that caused me to want to sell. BOK75K14 has gone back to normal but I was selling that one mainly because of the time until the loan would finish repaying on a new schedule, October 2020 instead of the original April 2019. It's become harder to exploit me with Bondora's help as I adjusted the timing of sales at discounts to have them in place mainly when payments were less likely.
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Thanks for sharing..
