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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 24, 2016 19:31:43 GMT
UK economy’s strong fundamentals – it is expected by many commentators that the UK will maintain free movement of services, goods and people by membership of the EEA (in a similar way to Switzerland and Norway), meaning that the fundamentals of the UK economy remain untouched. whilst I agree with most of your analysis I think the concept of the UK being in EEA or any similar deal that involves the free movement of people is politically naïve. Completely agree: it was both the fallacy and contradiction at the heart of the Leave campaign at the start which they gradually but not exactly overtly moved away from: namely that the UK could have its cake and eat it. There is zero chance of the EU bloc allowing the UK to leave on a basis of an 'EEA light' agreement (I.e. without the free movement of labour and contribution to EU budget requirements that EEA membership requires); and any UK political grouping that delivered an agreement that kept those requirements would totally betray the expectations of those who voted to leave and would be complete toast.
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MarkT
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Post by MarkT on Jun 24, 2016 20:05:23 GMT
savingstream whilst I agree with most of your analysis I think the concept of the UK being in EEA or any similar deal that involves the free movement of people is politically naïve. Completely agree: it was both the fallacy and contradiction at the heart of the Leave campaign at the start which they gradually but not exactly overtly moved away from: namely that the UK could have its cake and eat it. There is zero chance of the EU bloc allowing the UK to leave on a basis of an 'EEA light' agreement (I.e. without the free movement of labour and contribution to EU budget requirements that EEA membership requires); and any UK political grouping that delivered an agreement that kept those requirements would totally betray the expectations of those who voted to leave and would be complete toast. Looks like it's the WTO option then?
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sam i am
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Post by sam i am on Jun 24, 2016 20:38:30 GMT
I agree .. most of the voters were/are looking for something nearer the IOM / Channel Island model, with lots of free trade but a rather tighter control over immigration/residency (regardless of where said immigrants come from). It's the Guernsey model according to the French economy minister... www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36567469
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Post by uncletone on Jun 24, 2016 21:16:35 GMT
whilst I agree with most of your analysis I think the concept of the UK being in EEA or any similar deal that involves the free movement of people is politically naïve. Kudos in the extreme for the almost extinct proper spelling of "naïve". We, of the Diacritics Appreciation Society, salute you!  SaveSave
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Post by bracknellboy on Jun 24, 2016 22:00:08 GMT
uncletone: it's a pity that in your rush to acknowledge such spelling, you appear to have attributed it to Savingstream and not to mrclondon. He is probably feeling a little deflated by the incorrect attribution.
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Jun 24, 2016 22:18:36 GMT
Completely agree: it was both the fallacy and contradiction at the heart of the Leave campaign at the start which they gradually but not exactly overtly moved away from: namely that the UK could have its cake and eat it. There is zero chance of the EU bloc allowing the UK to leave on a basis of an 'EEA light' agreement (I.e. without the free movement of labour and contribution to EU budget requirements that EEA membership requires); and any UK political grouping that delivered an agreement that kept those requirements would totally betray the expectations of those who voted to leave and would be complete toast. Looks like it's the WTO option then? Reverting to WTO rules may not be a bad thing. We are a net importer so applying tariffs would effectively be a stealth tax, that would help reduce our massive national debt. It's probably inflationary, but the BoE want's higher inflation.
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bg
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Post by bg on Jun 25, 2016 0:10:29 GMT
Looks like it's the WTO option then? Reverting to WTO rules may not be a bad thing. We are a net importer so applying tariffs would effectively be a stealth tax, that would help reduce our massive national debt. It's probably inflationary, but the BoE want's higher inflation. Yeah a stealth tax where the tax goes to the EU, not our government. UK consumers having to pay an extra tax to Europe will not help reduce the national debt, quite the opposite (as the squeeze on consumer finances will lead to a looser fiscal policy).
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Jun 25, 2016 0:45:20 GMT
Reverting to WTO rules may not be a bad thing. We are a net importer so applying tariffs would effectively be a stealth tax, that would help reduce our massive national debt. It's probably inflationary, but the BoE want's higher inflation. Yeah a stealth tax where the tax goes to the EU, not our government. UK consumers having to pay an extra tax to Europe will not help reduce the national debt, quite the opposite (as the squeeze on consumer finances will lead to a looser fiscal policy). I was viewing this from the point of import tariffs. If the EU doesn't offer the UK a trade deal then our exporters can expect to be charged tariffs, but we would respond by applying tariffs on EU imports. That money goes to the UK treasury.
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ablender
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Post by ablender on Jun 25, 2016 7:26:53 GMT
Yeah a stealth tax where the tax goes to the EU, not our government. UK consumers having to pay an extra tax to Europe will not help reduce the national debt, quite the opposite (as the squeeze on consumer finances will lead to a looser fiscal policy). I was viewing this from the point of import tariffs. If the EU doesn't offer the UK a trade deal then our exporters can expect to be charged tariffs, but we would respond by applying tariffs on EU imports. That money goes to the UK treasury. and .. . It will make life more expensive to us and . . will make UK products in the EU more expensive to them.. Nice.
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Post by meledor on Jun 25, 2016 7:46:48 GMT
UK economy’s strong fundamentals – it is expected by many commentators that the UK will maintain free movement of services, goods and people by membership of the EEA (in a similar way to Switzerland and Norway), meaning that the fundamentals of the UK economy remain untouched. whilst I agree with most of your analysis I think the concept of the UK being in EEA or any similar deal that involves the free movement of people is politically naïve. If Labour and the Tories have any hope of maintaining the political status-quo they will have to deliver on what a significant proportion of the electorate believes (rightly or wrongly, its irrelevant at this point) is THE major issue that faces our country - uncontrolled immigration. Otherwise its a UKIP majority government at the following general election IMO. Agreed. Leaving the EU and yet retaining free movement of people is a non starter. How is that getting back control? The whole concept, unlike free movement of goods and services, was ill-conceived from the start and was never going to work whilst nation states continue to exist.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 25, 2016 7:50:45 GMT
savingstream whilst I agree with most of your analysis I think the concept of the UK being in EEA or any similar deal that involves the free movement of people is politically naïve. If Labour and the Tories have any hope of maintaining the political status-quo they will have to deliver on what a significant proportion of the electorate believes (rightly or wrongly, its irrelevant at this point) is THE major issue that faces our country - uncontrolled immigration. Otherwise its a UKIP majority government at the following general election IMO. Agreed. Leaving the EU and yet retaining free movement of people is a non starter. How is that getting back control? The whole concept, unlike free movement of goods and services, was ill-conceived from the start and was never going to work whilst nation states continue to exist. Meanwhile, the only other option to free movement is the requirement to get a visa to do anything more than visit another country as a tourist or on a short business trip. Want to retire to France or Spain? Visa. Want to study in Germany? Visa. Want to hire somebody Dutch? Visa.
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Post by smrutib on Jun 25, 2016 8:10:13 GMT
I agree .. most of the voters were/are looking for something nearer the IOM / Channel Island model, with lots of free trade but a rather tighter control over immigration/residency (regardless of where said immigrants come from). If this is what leave voters were expecting then they were delusional to say the least. It is easy to get sweetheart deals when you are a small little island no-one cares much about. Not if you are the 2nd biggest economy of the group. There will be a trade off between access to EU markets and access to UK. Exact details of the trade off will depend on a lot of factors - both rational and emotional. I for one won't be surprised if we end up with a deal that wouldn't be too different from what we could have achieved within the union.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Jun 25, 2016 8:52:24 GMT
I agree .. most of the voters were/are looking for something nearer the IOM / Channel Island model, with lots of free trade but a rather tighter control over immigration/residency (regardless of where said immigrants come from). If this is what leave voters were expecting then they were delusional to say the least. It is easy to get sweetheart deals when you are a small little island no-one cares much about. Not if you are the 2nd biggest economy of the group. It's also worth remembering that both the CI and the IoM have (had) their relationship with the EU solely because they're crown dependencies of the UK, with pre-existing free-trade with the UK.
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sam i am
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Post by sam i am on Jun 25, 2016 15:36:14 GMT
That storey was posted on the 18th June, before the Referendum and another scare tactic. Good job there weren't any scare tactics coming from the leave campaign.
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NSFW
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Post by NSFW on Jun 25, 2016 16:22:51 GMT
Agreed. Leaving the EU and yet retaining free movement of people is a non starter. How is that getting back control? The whole concept, unlike free movement of goods and services, was ill-conceived from the start and was never going to work whilst nation states continue to exist. Meanwhile, the only other option to free movement is the requirement to get a visa to do anything more than visit another country as a tourist or on a short business trip. Want to retire to France or Spain? Visa. Want to study in Germany? Visa. Want to hire somebody Dutch? Read that as "hit" instead of "hire". Still valid either way.
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