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Post by westonkevRS on Jul 18, 2016 22:41:31 GMT
Who are the lenders willing to accept 5.6% when they could easily have obtained circa 5.9 or 6%? Why is there about twelve times more money coming onto the market at 5.6% than at 5.7%? I presume that the whole £297k is NOT coming from a single (irrational?) lender. Is this £297k actually from weekend rolling market money (around 3% return) being invested in 5 year market at only 5.6%. If that is the case then Ratesetter has made the decision to place the money at that low rate instead of a more rational 5.9 or 6%. Who places at 5.7%? Normal lenders that have a different strategy, they want to lend now and don't want to have to wait a few days and log back in to see what happened.... Many people can't be bothered for what they see as a marginal uplift. 5.6% was the days Market Rate, so it's the reinvestments The £297k will be from many lenders, effectively all lenders using Market Rate to lend in the 5-year market and had a repayment last night. If you go into that market in the members area it tells you exactly how many lenders are in each 0.1% band. Money in different markets is never mixed. Monthly always stays in monthly, and is only matched to borrower requests from loan channels that use the monthly money. 100% of the money you see in the 5- year market is 5-year money. Kevin.
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Post by dualinvestor on Jul 20, 2016 6:15:11 GMT
Anecdotally, as opossed to scientifically, seems like the 5year rate is on the way down, matches in the last few days largely under or at 6%, and demand falling, less than 1000 in the last 24 hours. Seems like activity and rates much lower than they have been earlier this year, as far as I recall most weekdays had over 2000 matches in this market.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2016 7:28:04 GMT
I've had over £600 at various percentages from 6.0 and above for over a week with not a nibble.
The RateSetter equity curves show declining volume but also declining rates.
Much talk of NIRP from the BoE.
NatWest is suggesting negative interest rates for current account holders.
This might be a more prolonged downturn for P2P interest rates.
If I don't get a bite by Friday then I will start my offers at 5.9 and maybe below.
A day or two without reinvesting is okay. A week or more and the 6.0%+ is being eroded.
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DeafEater
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Post by DeafEater on Jul 27, 2016 12:25:13 GMT
I've had over £600 at various percentages from 6.0 and above for over a week with not a nibble. [...] If I don't get a bite by Friday then I will start my offers at 5.9 and maybe below. A day or two without reinvesting is okay. A week or more and the 6.0%+ is being eroded. Yes I have about 2.5k waiting to be reinvested in 5 year at the moment. It was sitting at 6.0 and 6.1 but hadn't gone anywhere for at least a week so I chickened out yesterday and reduced all of the offers to 5.9. It still hasn't gone yet but oldgrumpy's rule says there's more chance at the end of the day. I'll leave it until the end of tomorrow to get matched but if I can't shift it at 5.9% I regret I'll have to move it somewhere else that's both relatively safe and more deserving of it.
Before the GFC you could get 6% with full FSCS protection without even trying...
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jul 27, 2016 12:42:11 GMT
Keep an eye on that "borrower" £109K offer at 5.7%. That will probably rise during the afternoon and early evening until RS decide no more lenders are going to succumb to "lend right now", then the whole lot will go out at 5.9% (I assume you are not at the back of that current £339K lender Q? Your prospects look quite good. My scroogesque 6.0% offer doesn't.
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DeafEater
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Post by DeafEater on Jul 27, 2016 15:07:57 GMT
I'm clearly missing out on information available from the RS website. In the 'Full Market' screen I see a total of 14 borrowers at 5.7% making a total requirement of £207,348.32 but I haven't found any way to break down the 14 into individual borrowers. Could you educate me please OG?
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jul 27, 2016 15:21:08 GMT
Not on that detail. Now 15 loans showing (£210K+) which I think are loans RS has ready and agreed with the borrowers for immediate conclusion, but will not process until there is no chance of lender agreeing to 5.7%*. Later this evening they will probably give in and plunder the 5.9% pot. That should clear that out apart from the last £100K or so. There may well be a few more "borrower" offers before that happens. If they do it after 10pm they won't have to include the 5.9% weighting in tomorrow's Market Rate, so helping to keep that down. I don't think RS reveal individual loan details for contracts waiting for the cheapest deal.
* edit: ... unless, of course, one of those borrowers gets in contact and says, "I want the loot, now!!"
PS It seems to me, if we can't get our 6% cash out by Friday evening, we can forget about 6%+, probably until at least mid-August.
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jw01
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Post by jw01 on Jul 27, 2016 16:48:52 GMT
As the OP of this thread, I would be interested in the rationale for your PS. I dropped from 6.4 to 6.1, got two tiny nibbles, then nothing. What do you think might indicate a possible upturn in August?
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jul 27, 2016 16:59:46 GMT
I don't. However, the beginning of the month involves larger than usual repayments, so plenty of lender cash becomes available. The effect is often to depress rates for the first few days, sometimes longer, and rates often recover a little towards the middle of the month. I see the pressure is building in the borrower section - up to around £285K* - RS will have to satisfy this later, which could wipe out all but £50K of the festering 5.9% pot. Then again, there is the occasional twazzock who intermittently and unexpectedly dumps a six figure sum in 5 year at below the best lender rate prevailing, and the forecasters have to wipe egg off their beards. Kevin insists it is not the RS rolling machine. *£300K+ 18:37 The fact that "last matched rate" is constantly being updated at 5.7% shows that money keeps dripping in at the "lend right now" rate. £341K now (20:01) ... more than enough to empty the 5.9% pot but not the 6% one .
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Post by westonkevRS on Jul 27, 2016 21:49:45 GMT
Anecdotally, as opossed to scientifically, seems like the 5year rate is on the way down, matches in the last few days largely under or at 6%, and demand falling, less than 1000 in the last 24 hours. Seems like activity and rates much lower than they have been earlier this year, as far as I recall most weekdays had over 2000 matches in this market. It's true that volumes in some sectors, including consumer loans over 5-years have been depressed on the supply side. I'm not blaming Brexit uncertainty, but it doesn't help. Also summer doldrum seasonality. On the supply of money side, RateSetter has over £620m in assets, that's a lot more monthly repayment reinvestments into the lending market than last year, but on similar lending volumes. It's also that time if month, from end to beginning where lots of lenders get paid (and have cash to lend) or have reinvestment to allocate. The opposite of the "day 21" effect. So all said and done, there is a lot more lender pressure than borrower on the markets. Which if efficient lead to lower depressed rates. Kevin.
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Post by westonkevRS on Jul 27, 2016 22:15:40 GMT
As the OP of this thread, I would be interested in the rationale for your PS. I dropped from 6.4 to 6.1, got two tiny nibbles, then nothing. What do you think might indicate a possible upturn in August? August is usually a quiet month for borrowers, what with holidays and brokers going away. Also tax dries up post the July uptick (Jan is the real high). Also rates do change mid month, depressed at the end and first week of a month due to high lender activity and reinvestments. Day 21 is statistically the best day to lend (no promise, past isn't a promise of the future, blah, blah), so that's probably why OG says if it doesn't bite now, then it probably won't for 3 weeks or more... Kevin.
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Post by dualinvestor on Jul 28, 2016 6:36:04 GMT
Anecdotally, as opossed to scientifically, seems like the 5year rate is on the way down, matches in the last few days largely under or at 6%, and demand falling, less than 1000 in the last 24 hours. Seems like activity and rates much lower than they have been earlier this year, as far as I recall most weekdays had over 2000 matches in this market. It's true that volumes in some sectors, including consumer loans over 5-years have been depressed on the supply side. I'm not blaming Brexit uncertainty, but it doesn't help. Also summer doldrum seasonality. On the supply of money side, RateSetter has over £620m in assets, that's a lot more monthly repayment reinvestments into the lending market than last year, but on similar lending volumes. It's also that time if month, from end to beginning where lots of lenders get paid (and have cash to lend) or have reinvestment to allocate. The opposite of the "day 21" effect. So all said and done, there is a lot more lender pressure than borrower on the markets. Which if efficient lead to lower depressed rates. Kevin. Poor use of English there Kevin, I very much doubt " RateSetter has over £620m in assets." At the last account it had gross assets c.£29 million and net assets c.£28million. For your comment to be correct the various share capital movements and profits since April 2015 would have to be nearly £600million. You probably mean that as agent Ratesetter has £620million of client deposits, in much the same way a solicitor might have large sums in its client account. As the company is not a Licensed Deposit Taker or bank these are in no way assets of Ratesetter, although it would seem to think it is operating a pooled collective investment scheme by the way it deals with the cashing in on loans.
Turning back to topic less than 600 matches in the last 24 hours, thats not a dip its a falling off a cliff and rates firmly sub 6%. Time for a rethink in my "investments."
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Jul 28, 2016 8:24:11 GMT
Looks like the platform hamster has gone on holiday and Kevin has been nasty to the temp. The borrower offer backlog of £400K+* was not cleared overnight i the usual way, and reports on another thread say the overnight repayment run didn't happen properly either (my 5yr one hasn't appeared yet).
"Turning back to topic less than 600 matches in the last 24 hours..." That would have been a lot more if the £400K borrower backlog had been cleared by using 5.8/5.9% lender money.
* edit 12:20 ... now £537K, RS are doing the stalled overnight payment run first (nearly finished!).
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 29, 2016 14:02:15 GMT
Well good riddance to a lousy month. I was hoping for 6% this week but it was not to be.
August is usually a dullard so here's hoping for the usual seasonal boost in borrower demand for September.
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Post by dualinvestor on Jul 29, 2016 15:03:58 GMT
Well good riddance to a lousy month. I was hoping for 6% this week but it was not to be. August is usually a dullard so here's hoping for the usual seasonal boost in borrower demand for September. I just got one! But the "system" has quickly ensured the offers are down to 5.7% borrower 5.8% lender
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