jlend
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Post by jlend on Sept 5, 2016 6:43:04 GMT
I see the statistics page on ratesetter has been updated recently in case anyone hasn't noticed
/aboutus/statistics
Gives a bit more info I think on expected and projected losses per year.
Projected losses for 2014 2015 and 2016 loans are all over 3%
The coverage ratio for the provision fund is based on a default rate of 2.8%. I assume over time this might have to increase but assume it is OK for the current mature loan book.
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jimc99
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Post by jimc99 on Sept 5, 2016 7:04:31 GMT
Errr...found the "about us" page but cannot find a statistics link there....help please.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Sept 5, 2016 7:08:39 GMT
Errr...found the "about us" page but cannot find a statistics link there....help please. Sorry the url is statistics. On the drop down menu it is under market data There is also a ratesetter blog about it
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Post by propman on Sept 5, 2016 8:12:38 GMT
At the same time as this change, there was the loss of one of the pages of "Members" statistics I think called "ratesetters". Disappointing that the useful information is hidden on the main site not accessible from the members area.
- PM
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jimc99
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Post by jimc99 on Sept 5, 2016 11:18:44 GMT
I see the statistics page on ratesetter has been updated recently in case anyone hasn't noticed /aboutus/statistics Gives a bit more info I think on expected and projected losses per year. Projected losses for 2014 2015 and 2016 loans are all over 3% The coverage ratio for the provision fund is based on a default rate of 2.8%. I assume over time this might have to increase but assume it is OK for the current mature loan book. I guess the obvious question is why are they still expecting less than 2.8% defaults!!??
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Sept 5, 2016 14:05:12 GMT
At the same time as this change, there was the loss of one of the pages of "Members" statistics I think called "ratesetters". Disappointing that the useful information is hidden on the main site not accessible from the members area.
- PM Ah yes it has gone. I also see in the members area on the provision fund page the table hasn't been updated so it contains less info than the About Us - Market Data page. It would be good if the tables were the same 😊
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robski
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Post by robski on Sept 22, 2016 21:25:20 GMT
Hey all, been lurking some time but I needed to ask a question so I registered
I am a but confused on the statistics now, they used to make sense but now they seem off, I am talking about the bad debt % shown on the provision fund page, a few weeks ago they all seemed to change and now I think they are off E.g tonight they show
2011 0.591% 2012 0.925% 2013 1.739% 2014 3.068%
if you download the loan book downloads and take the total bad debt and divide by the origination amount, you get:
2011 0.574% 2012 0.909% 2013 1.712% 2014 3.463%
All are lower apart from 2014 which is significantly higher.
Anyone any idea why this should be so?
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Post by propman on Sept 26, 2016 10:11:57 GMT
Rather unsatisfactorily in my view, the loanbook page includes the loans made by institutions and not covered by the PF. When queried on this, I was told that the detail could be found in the loanbook download. However the latter is still showing as 30 April so there is no visibility on the proportion of the bad debts that have come from PF. We are told that the institutions do not get any different treatment except for access to the full return without PF funding but without PF coverage. However the returns and bad debts seem significantly higher than on the retail portfolio suggesting access to higher risk loans.
It does seem that the statistics on the non-members area is without the institutional backed loans however. this is to lower precision, but is a more useful summary.
HTH
- PM
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Oct 13, 2016 8:29:13 GMT
I am a little confused. The default rate for 2014 has decreased to 2.85%(it was above 3%). I may be missing something obvious here but I fail to understand why this would be so. I have assumed that debt reovery would affect the provision fund stats.
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wapping35
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Post by wapping35 on Oct 13, 2016 9:17:24 GMT
Indeed.
When you down load the Loan Book for 2014. It is saying Bad Debt for 2014 of 3.11%.
Which number is correct ?
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Post by unknown on Oct 13, 2016 9:33:55 GMT
You will notice the lifetime bad debt rate for 2014 has also decreased and is now lower than the percentage repaid. Clever accounting? - it has certainly dropped rather suddenly. It would be interesting to find out.
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Post by ruralres66 on Oct 13, 2016 9:49:05 GMT
Over to you Westonkev.....
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hendragon
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Post by hendragon on Oct 13, 2016 10:45:27 GMT
there is, most likely, a very good reason why this has happened. It would be nice to know what that reason is though
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Post by westonkevRS on Oct 13, 2016 14:50:24 GMT
Over to you Westonkev..... Apologies, but I don't work on these numbers anymore. The only logical reason for the default number to decrease is because of loan recoveries paid by the customer, defaults rescheduled, or monies recovered through the debt sale (which is planned, perhaps it has now occurred). Other than this, if you want the exact reason you'll need to call Customer Services. Kevin
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Post by propman on Oct 13, 2016 18:05:49 GMT
Another possibility is that there has been a large recovery of a loan held by the institutional investors. If you reconcile different estimates, it appears the bad debts on these have been significantly higher than the retail portfolio. The figures on Provision Page are for the entire loanbook including the institutional. As the institutions don't participate in the PF, none of this recovery would go into the PF!
- PM
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