stevio
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,065
Likes: 894
|
Post by stevio on Nov 2, 2018 18:28:06 GMT
These loans always seem to trade at some discount, 95% doesn't seem that low to make any fuss about, probably just someone looking to exit for any no awe inspiring reason and going a little lower than the norm to shift them
Also as the bid offer spread is normally small, so not unusual periods of crossover
|
|
nw99
Posts: 340
Likes: 114
|
Post by nw99 on Nov 4, 2018 8:41:01 GMT
114 offered at 95 buying into that
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,873
Likes: 7,918
|
Post by SteveT on Nov 4, 2018 9:08:06 GMT
There's a sizeable offer for 1000113 (Dev. of Power Sites) at 96% too. It was £10k originally, likely an underwriter selling down.
There were some worthwhile arbitrage opportunities earlier, and there's still a Bid at 96.1%
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Nov 4, 2018 11:13:14 GMT
These loans always seem to trade at some discount, 95% doesn't seem that low to make any fuss about, probably just someone looking to exit for any no awe inspiring reason and going a little lower than the norm to shift them Also as the bid offer spread is normally small, so not unusual periods of crossover 113 and 114 are recent loans, and 95% represents four to five month's interest. Clearly I would do better not to bid at the start but to sit it out and just wait for a 5% discount after a month or two. This is not good for the platform.
|
|
|
Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Nov 4, 2018 11:25:37 GMT
These loans always seem to trade at some discount, 95% doesn't seem that low to make any fuss about, probably just someone looking to exit for any no awe inspiring reason and going a little lower than the norm to shift them Also as the bid offer spread is normally small, so not unusual periods of crossover 113 and 114 are recent loans, and 95% represents four to five month's interest. Clearly I would do better not to bid at the start but to sit it out and just wait for a 5% discount after a month or two. This is not good for the platform.
I agree it is not good for the platform, however probably of more concern is what price were these purchased at to make it viable. Sounds like we have been considerably short changed.
|
|
SteveT
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,873
Likes: 7,918
|
Post by SteveT on Nov 4, 2018 11:37:11 GMT
113 and 114 are recent loans, and 95% represents four to five month's interest. Clearly I would do better not to bid at the start but to sit it out and just wait for a 5% discount after a month or two. This is not good for the platform.
I agree it is not good for the platform, however probably of more concern is what price were these purchased at to make it viable. Sounds like we have been considerably short changed. I doubt that any Ablrate underwriter banks as much as a 5% fee. More likely someone went in heavy, assuming they'd be able to sell on quickly at rather lower discounts, and has been caught out by the sudden change in market conditions.
|
|
|
Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Nov 4, 2018 11:44:03 GMT
I agree it is not good for the platform, however probably of more concern is what price were these purchased at to make it viable. Sounds like we have been considerably short changed. I doubt that any Ablrate underwriter banks as much as a 5% fee. More likely someone went in heavy, assuming they'd be able to sell on quickly at rather lower discounts, and has been caught out by the sudden change in market conditions. Well I am mostly grumpy that I don't have spare cash to take advantage. Having said that this is a repeat of events not long ago (when I was less grumpy) so somebody must be being careless on a regular basis.
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Nov 4, 2018 11:46:07 GMT
Short changed in that I lent some at 100% which I could now lend at 95%, yes, but the underwriting structures and underwriting sell decisions may not be as simple as the numbers imply.
The root cause of the problem (apparent in the poor progress of 115 before it was pulled) is that confidence is reduced due to problems with a number of loans which is a significant proportion of the whole - the six connected with BN, the boats, and 42 &44 not yet restored to trading. I doubt things will get much better until most of these are clearly placed on a good path, or at least a defined path. Selling new loans to underwriters will not help.
|
|
gustapher
Member of DD Central
Posts: 144
Likes: 267
|
Post by gustapher on Nov 4, 2018 13:21:09 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 971
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Nov 4, 2018 14:11:28 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck Yes, but are you loading or unloading?
|
|
gustapher
Member of DD Central
Posts: 144
Likes: 267
|
Post by gustapher on Nov 4, 2018 14:34:41 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck Yes, but are you loading or unloading? 113 @ 96% I prefer 111 of the two battery loans due to the longer length and the fact it is amortising but at 96% 113 was over 17% yield with 18 months on the clock. It means either someone knows something I don't (in which case I'll look like a mug) or it's a no-brainer buying opportunity. My view is unless something goes wrong with the borrower or ABL keep releasing new loans without waiting a bit for things to balance out then I think the current buyers market will be temporary, slowly correcting over the next few months. If not then I'm happy to gamble at that rate based on the borrowers track record to date. Taken a few small nibbles of 114 but at much smaller amounts. Even that was offering over 14.5% earlier and for all the hate about second hand car loans I'm happy to take a position for that return. The other second hand car loans have all made me good money so far at lower rates so although not investing heavily happy to grab the odd bargain. Note however my strategy is purely contrarian based on sentiment. I know only as much as everyone else so "backing up the truck" is possibly an exaggeration. I'm not all-in, just accumulating at prices I think will change over the next few months.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,665
Likes: 2,989
|
Post by IFISAcava on Nov 4, 2018 14:36:21 GMT
it would help if I didn't keep pressing "offer" (as in offer to buy) rather than "bid", which is what I really mean, and end up selling when I mean to buy - thanks to the bots that pounce in the seconds before I can cancel it.
|
|
blender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,719
Likes: 4,272
|
Post by blender on Nov 5, 2018 15:58:18 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck I think you need a bigger truck.
|
|
gustapher
Member of DD Central
Posts: 144
Likes: 267
|
Post by gustapher on Nov 5, 2018 18:04:38 GMT
<Booooop> <Booooop> <Booooop> Sorry that's just me backing up the truck I think you need a bigger truck. Yeah - I'm already walking funny because I've been so busy filling my boots. I've got loans stuffed in my pockets, under my hat, now wondering how much I can fit down my pants. It does make me cautious, but people are buying - lots of people - and those offers are shifting. I wonder if Ablrate are underwriting themselves and are just taking a smaller fee on the remaining loan parts to get them off the books. They'd still turn a profit at these levels.
|
|
mason
Member of DD Central
Posts: 662
Likes: 640
|
Post by mason on Nov 5, 2018 19:30:08 GMT
I wonder if Ablrate are underwriting themselves and are just taking a smaller fee on the remaining loan parts to get them off the books. They'd still turn a profit at these levels I'm pretty sure it would be illegal for them to release negative information about a loan, then buy it up at a deep discount from panicking investors while being in possession of information not in the public domain.
|
|