TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on May 14, 2017 8:50:36 GMT
My suggestion would be be "Enforced Naivety".
Aside from the fact that LC are very reluctant to classify a default, prior to this year they were reporting the wrong Arrears figures anyway, so a new investor couldn't see the extent of potential defaults! Only if you held affected loans (or carefully examined the loan book - which you can't do until you have an account) were you likely to have any idea of issues - partly because it's very difficult to see loans you don't hold a part of.
I had intended to invest an ISA-limit figure in the platform - and in fact did fund my account to that level - but prior to buying much I became very concerned with misleading proposals and seemingly poor DD - and the arrogant care-less attitude in dealing with issues reported to LC.
Defaults (by my definition, as LC seem to be on a diff erent planet) for their first full year now exceed 5%, so I'm glad I got out when I could. Up to now I believe smaller, retail investors have taken the greater proportion of losses, but it looks as if the first one to significantly affect the big-hitters is on the way - although I doubt it will make much difference to LC as those investors have shown little interest in problems to date.
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Jun 4, 2017 17:11:18 GMT
. . . . and now it seems to have happened.
I don't know which loan, but another 4% of last year's origination is now more than a month in arrears, which already makes last year worse than the bad previous year which caused me to ship out! At least this will share the pain with a big-hiitter or two, meaning normal retail investors should only suffer a couple of percent or so in a well-diversified portfolio.
Presumably no-one on here had a piece of that loan, so probably have to look at the ones that are not listed on the LE individually for their status?
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Aug 20, 2017 6:40:35 GMT
Wow - it appears LC have made significant Recovery, almost 3% of several loans from 2015!
I guess that will please many people tied in to those defaults, and several accounts can now be wound up?
The concurrent timing seems quite a coincidence, although the reason for that is unclear to me.
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min
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Post by min on Aug 20, 2017 18:49:19 GMT
Wow - it appears LC have made significant Recovery, almost 3% of several loans from 2015! I guess that will please many people tied in to those defaults, and several accounts can now be wound up? The concurrent timing seems quite a coincidence, although the reason for that is unclear to me. So what's repaid. Doesn't appear to be anything I'm in.
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muh3
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Post by muh3 on Aug 23, 2017 12:11:02 GMT
I had 2 marked as loss today.
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awk
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Post by awk on Aug 23, 2017 12:25:08 GMT
I had 2 marked as loss today. All my remaining loans are in default. I logged in yesterday just to check if I'd missed any updates (their emails usually go to junk these days!) and was surprised to see a new default loan in my account, but with zero capital loss - I checked and as far as I can see, I sold out ages ago, so not sure what is going on.
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treeman
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Post by treeman on Aug 23, 2017 13:14:14 GMT
I had 2 marked as loss today. All my remaining loans are in default. I logged in yesterday just to check if I'd missed any updates (their emails usually go to junk these days!) and was surprised to see a new default loan in my account, but with zero capital loss - I checked and as far as I can see, I sold out ages ago, so not sure what is going on. Got curious so had a quick look - see you and raise you one! I now have two more on my default list. Both showing zero loss. Both I previously sold out of. Gremlins. (not a whiff of any recovery either..........)
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Post by albermarle on Aug 23, 2017 13:39:37 GMT
Wow - it appears LC have made significant Recovery, almost 3% of several loans from 2015! I guess that will please many people tied in to those defaults, and several accounts can now be wound up? The concurrent timing seems quite a coincidence, although the reason for that is unclear to me. Like you I guess, I also noticed in their statistics that the default rate for loans origination in 2015 had suddenly dropped from nearly 6% to 2% . I asked LC direct how that had happened and got the following answer: he Actual Arrears rates and Actual Lifetime Bad Debt Rate on our Statistics page had previously been expressed as a rate over the full term of the loans in that cohort. Following a review of our Statistics page, we have now changed these figures to express them as an annual rate to show a comparison with the Estimated Lifetime Bad Debt Rate which was always expressed annually. So as far as I understand this it means that the approx 6% default rate of loans originated in 2015, is now shared out over the average length of the defaulted loans, which is probably around 3 years, so 2% a year . Seems like smoke and mirrors to me and is just kicking the can down the road. Just another example of P2P companies playing with default statistics I guess?
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muh3
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Post by muh3 on Aug 23, 2017 15:46:01 GMT
Wow - it appears LC have made significant Recovery, almost 3% of several loans from 2015! I guess that will please many people tied in to those defaults, and several accounts can now be wound up? The concurrent timing seems quite a coincidence, although the reason for that is unclear to me. Like you I guess, I also noticed in their statistics that the default rate for loans origination in 2015 had suddenly dropped from nearly 6% to 2% . I asked LC direct how that had happened and got the following answer: he Actual Arrears rates and Actual Lifetime Bad Debt Rate on our Statistics page had previously been expressed as a rate over the full term of the loans in that cohort. Following a review of our Statistics page, we have now changed these figures to express them as an annual rate to show a comparison with the Estimated Lifetime Bad Debt Rate which was always expressed annually. So as far as I understand this it means that the approx 6% default rate of loans originated in 2015, is now shared out over the average length of the defaulted loans, which is probably around 3 years, so 2% a year . Seems like smoke and mirrors to me and is just kicking the can down the road. Just another example of P2P companies playing with default statistics I guess? One would think that this means 2% for 2016 and 2% for 2017, but it shows 0.
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Post by albermarle on Aug 24, 2017 17:12:24 GMT
I have clarified again directly with LC.
The new annualised bad debt rate of 2% for 2015 , means that over the average length of the loans that originated in 2015, there has been an average 2% loss each year the loans existed. Presume will be similar for loans originating in 2016. So if you have loans originating in 2015 + 2016 , then you will have an annual risk of 2% for each year , for example. They say they have done this to bring the actual lifetime bad debt rate into line with the estimated lifetime bad debt rate which has always been annualised. However the P2PFA guidelines ( of which they are not a member but some of their competitors,like FC are ) say these lifetime bad debt figures ( whether actual or estimated ) should NOT be presented in an annualised form .....
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Aug 26, 2017 13:13:05 GMT
Hi albermarle ; Congratulations on your persistence. I thought the first reply you posted from LC was gobbledegook, and this second one seems to come from lala land! It's a very convenient interpretation of "annualised" if it allows the figures to be reduced, but it's wrong, because a loss is incurred when a loan defaults/ is declared as Bad Debt, not over an indeterminate period; and anyway, as muh3 points out, there are no other entries for that spread! Apologies to anyone anticipating a recovery, since I left LC I can only see the stats page and saw what I assumed was a real reduced bad debt figure, not some esoteric - and misleading - massaging of numbers.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jan 12, 2018 15:46:37 GMT
I left LC some time ago but out of curiosity I wondered if anyone had seen recoveries on any of the bad debts?
I was in bar & restaurant, bridal shop, m* building services, and s* tech solutions, and in total recoveries were £0.00
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TheDriver
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Post by TheDriver on Jan 12, 2018 16:47:18 GMT
Steerpike;
If you have defaults then presumably you still have a live account. So download the loan book and you can see the state of play - although without a cross-reference list it's not obvious which is which!
However, you could send it to me as I have a X-ref of everything up to last March (when I left), so should be able to correlate names to numbers.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jan 13, 2018 8:45:06 GMT
If you have defaults then presumably you still have a live account. So download the loan book and you can see the state of play - although without a cross-reference list it's not obvious which is which!
However, you could send it to me as I have a X-ref of everything up to last March (when I left), so should be able to correlate names to numbers.Thank you for the offer, however, I have no expectations of returns I was idly wondering if anyone had seen successful recoveries.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Jan 13, 2018 10:52:15 GMT
An update went out a few days ago regarding the only loan I'm still in (S** M********** - thread further down the page) suggesting that they were going to force the sale of the security, but setting out an expectation that it might take circa three months.
I'm not holding my breath.
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