Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 21, 2018 20:40:06 GMT
I think my experiment is over, just too many late and defaulted loans. If I get significant recoveries I may be back.
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Apr 3, 2018 11:15:45 GMT
I think my experiment is over, just too many late and defaulted loans. If I get significant recoveries I may be back. The official platform stats say just 2 loans defaulted making £1250. Erm?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Apr 3, 2018 12:09:53 GMT
Defaults in the stats are only for loans started after 21st September last year (these are mostly 3 month loans with a few 1 to 2 month loans) that are over 120 days (4 months) past final payment date, there cannot be many of these yet. Also one of my loans is well over the 120 days late and is still classed as 'overdue' not defaulted on my account (and is not one of the 2 defaulted in the stats). I have a load of loans well past the final payment date and quite a few extremely late paying the instalments due.
I also have defaulted loans from before 21st September, which are not included in the stats at all!
Edit:Just checking and the one well over 120 days late was actually from just before the start of the stats, so won't be included on the stats page. Still don't know why it's not defaulted though, maybe a glimmer of hope of repayment?
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shimself
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Post by shimself on Apr 3, 2018 14:36:42 GMT
WestonKevTMP can you include overdues on the stats page please?
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Post by WestonKevTMP on Apr 5, 2018 20:00:26 GMT
WestonKevTMP can you include overdues on the stats page please? The page is being updated to try and be clearer, with some improved definitions. However.... The issue we have is that since late September 2017 we switched to amortising loans. Therefore the lates will include a mix of customers that have never paid anything and some that have only missed a single payment. But of more importance is payment arrangements. The Money Platform has a reasonable share of "late" customers on repayment plans. It's very common within the HCSTC sector to have lates, that forebearance is given and customers given time to repay. These customers will eventually repay, but it takes time and interest is usually frozen. Unfortunately many users of HCSTC almost expect this, as if it's a product feature. So the problem is that the percentage of lates Is not representative of expected final losses and net profit/ loss to lenders will only be known 12-months later. As a young platform we don't have the data to statistically forecast/estimate the translation of current late rates into final loss rates. For example a late rate of 25% could result in a 10% loss (and therefore profit with intereet). Thus is thr dilemma we are currently trying to solve, and show reporting that is useful. Kevin.
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Post by mike1963 on Apr 5, 2018 21:09:21 GMT
WestonKevTMP can you include overdues on the stats page please? The page is being updated to try and be clearer, with some improved definitions. However.... The issue we have is that since late September 2017 we switched to amortising loans. Therefore the lates will include a mix of customers that have never paid anything and some that have only missed a single payment. But of more importance is payment arrangements. The Money Platform has a reasonable share of "late" customers on repayment plans. It's very common within the HCSTC sector to have lates, that forebearance is given and customers given time to repay. These customers will eventually repay, but it takes time and interest is usually frozen. Unfortunately many users of HCSTC almost expect this, as if it's a product feature. So the problem is that the percentage of lates Is not representative of expected final losses and net profit/ loss to lenders will only be known 12-months later. As a young platform we don't have the data to statistically forecast/estimate the translation of current late rates into final loss rates. For example a late rate of 25% could result in a 10% loss (and therefore profit with intereet). Thus is thr dilemma we are currently trying to solve, and show reporting that is useful. Kevin. From my experience, I suspect lates and defaults are going to be very, very high.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 9, 2018 20:00:46 GMT
Now 31 and £10500, still lagging apparent defaults, but climbing rapidly.
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Post by WestonKevTMP on May 31, 2018 9:51:35 GMT
Comrades,
We are still working through the best way to report loan repayment performance, one that is accurate but neither gives an overly positive picture nor a overly prudent negative one.
One of the issues is that in the world of HCSTC, you can expect a significant percentage of customers to miss a payment. Many of these borrowers need support, and typically go onto repayment plans. Most are within 12-months, but some on debt management plans can be longer. In line with the platforms ethical and transparent approach, we always demonstrate forbearance and therefore no additional fees or interest is charged for customers on plans. Although this negative performance is reported to the credit reference agencies thus making it difficult for such borrowers to avoid negative consequences. The issue for our reporting is where the borrower is on a rearranged payment plan and has paid 80% of the monies owed, they are still classified as "late". Adding these lates up, without taking into account the monies repaid would give the wrong impression. It is because of these plans, that the percentage of defaults is not high (i.. they are still late, not defaulted).
The other issue, and is partly platform specific, is that these customers on arrangements and where monies is collected ad-hoc, is not an automated process. Money has to be allocated back to the lender, and this takes time. We are working through how to automate this, which would increase the speed of monies paid back to lenders.
Kevin.
P.S. I'm not that frequent on this forum anymore, so apologies for the reduced posts compared to my historic prolific alter-egos.
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Post by george on Jun 1, 2018 11:24:00 GMT
WestonKevTMP I think there's one very simple thing you can do that will help with transparency a huge amount: show monthly cohorts in the statistics. So, of loans made in e.g. October 2017, how many are a) settled on time/early, b) settled late, c) current but late and d) defaulted. This would hugely help those of us who've had a bad experience dipping a toe in the water to understand the general trends in loan performance (and whether we just had statistical bad luck with losing our metaphorical toes), and therefore encouraging us to have another go. I like what TMP is trying to do, but unfortunately, there's no way I'm going to be putting any more money in after my first experience until I can actually verify the loan-book performance for myself.
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Post by mike1963 on Jun 1, 2018 14:00:47 GMT
WestonKevTMP I think there's one very simple thing you can do that will help with transparency a huge amount: show monthly cohorts in the statistics. So, of loans made in e.g. October 2017, how many are a) settled on time/early, b) settled late, c) current but late and d) defaulted. This would hugely help those of us who've had a bad experience dipping a toe in the water to understand the general trends in loan performance (and whether we just had statistical bad luck with losing our metaphorical toes), and therefore encouraging us to have another go. I like what TMP is trying to do, but unfortunately, there's no way I'm going to be putting any more money in after my first experience until I can actually verify the loan-book performance for myself. WestonKevTMP , on the subject of Transparency, perhaps an information link for each late/defaulted loan detailing where you are in obtaining recovery of money lent. It seems that all(?) other platforms manage to put out something for their defaulted loans, surely TMP can too!
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jun 1, 2018 14:35:23 GMT
Comrades, We are still working through the best way to report loan repayment performance, one that is accurate but neither gives an overly positive picture nor a overly prudent negative one. One of the issues is that in the world of HCSTC, you can expect a significant percentage of customers to miss a payment. Many of these borrowers need support, and typically go onto repayment plans. Most are within 12-months, but some on debt management plans can be longer. In line with the platforms ethical and transparent approach, we always demonstrate forbearance and therefore no additional fees or interest is charged for customers on plans. Although this negative performance is reported to the credit reference agencies thus making it difficult for such borrowers to avoid negative consequences. The issue for our reporting is where the borrower is on a rearranged payment plan and has paid 80% of the monies owed, they are still classified as "late". Adding these lates up, without taking into account the monies repaid would give the wrong impression. It is because of these plans, that the percentage of defaults is not high (i.. they are still late, not defaulted). The other issue, and is partly platform specific, is that these customers on arrangements and where monies is collected ad-hoc, is not an automated process. Money has to be allocated back to the lender, and this takes time. We are working through how to automate this, which would increase the speed of monies paid back to lenders. Kevin. P.S. I'm not that frequent on this forum anymore, so apologies for the reduced posts compared to my historic prolific alter-egos. I have no confidence that my late, very late and extremely late loans will repay at all, and I'm expecting a hefty loss. But even if some or even most of these borrowers do pay back in a year or so (with no extra interest) what will the actual rate of return be? I definitely won't be putting any more funds in until some major recoveries happen and even then would I want to try again if this is the expected outcome?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 30, 2018 19:24:29 GMT
Still not seeing any repayments on late or defaulted loans. Looking like a total loss from here. The ones I was told could not be claimed 2017/18 tax year because they were about to repay haven't yet, surprise!
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ozaz
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Post by ozaz on Jul 31, 2018 17:20:42 GMT
The ones I was told could not be claimed 2017/18 tax year because they were about to repay haven't yet, surprise! Told by who? More generally, how do we determine when a TMP loan is deemed irrecoverable? Do they change status to irrecoverable at some point?
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jul 31, 2018 20:17:19 GMT
The ones I was told could not be claimed 2017/18 tax year because they were about to repay haven't yet, surprise! Told by who? More generally, how do we determine when a TMP loan is deemed irrecoverable? Do they change status to irrecoverable at some point? I asked about a couple of loans that were clearly by MPs definition in default in 2017/18 and was told they were OK, not irrecoverable and (probably?) soon to repay, of course no sign of repayment even now another 3 months down the line. Although I have no end of loans in default, collection, late (some of which are extremely late) I guess I will have to wait until next April to see how many are going to be deemed irrecoverable. Or at that point I may declare them as such myself. I also see a number of loans that by MPs own definition should now be considered in default that are still classed as just late on my account. Not looking like a good outcome.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Sept 9, 2018 17:30:57 GMT
I now have a celebration if any loan pays back, I think I've had one in the last three months, which wasn't one of the 'promised' repayments. By far my worst ever P2P punt (wish I hadn't put so much into the punt).
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