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Post by southseacompany on Jan 19, 2017 5:43:04 GMT
Since Mintos makes their loan book available for download, I figured it might be worthwhile to see if any interesting trends can be found in it. I guess everyone has noted the slump in rates and loan availability at the beginning of the year. If we plot of the aggregate amount of unsecured euro-denominated personal loans listed on the Mintos platform each week (log scale), we get this: The red vertical lines mark year ends. You can see there is a dip from December to early January in both years, although it doesn't last long. Looking at the average interest rate, weighted by loan size, of the same loans over the same period shows that increasing loan volumes do not imply a pick-up of interest rates: So if the past is anything to go by, rates for personal loans are probably going to stay in the 11%-12% range in the near future.
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Post by southseacompany on Jan 19, 2017 5:55:55 GMT
Here's a similar exercise for secured car loans, but I've grouped them weekly by date of issue instead of date of listing on Mintos, both to get a longer perspective and to avoid what looks like a lot of errors in the listing date column. The loan book provided by Mintos does not contain information on which loans come with the buyback guarantee, so that limits the usefulness of the data. Loan volume has been growing until plateauing last year: Average interest rate was relatively steady until the recent hard drop: Average initial LTV has also been quite steady: It seems that rates have fallen quite a bit while initial LTV percentages have only decreased slightly, so the investment opportunity in car loans has become worse overall in recent months. I stopped buying car loans around the time that the Estonian 15% loans disappeared and have no plans to resume.
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kulerucket
Member of DD Central
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Post by kulerucket on Jan 19, 2017 10:54:52 GMT
Thanks this is very useful. On the first graphs there seems to be a drop in interest rates corresponding to a drop in volume. To me this makes sense because if there are less loans available, there will be more competition available and more people willing to take a lower rate just to get something.
My threshold for car loans is about 14% at the moment, but I'm still just testing those loans with a small contribution really. With 12/13% buybacks, the risk of 14% is not really worth it so may well drop them all together depending on what happens when my first default occurs.
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0risk
Member of DD Central
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Post by 0risk on Jan 19, 2017 11:33:14 GMT
Thanks for these graphs. Very useful indeed.
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p2pmaster
investment is life.
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Post by p2pmaster on Jan 19, 2017 12:01:43 GMT
Thanks for insights. Could you do more quant on other LOs?
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