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Post by jackpease on Mar 31, 2017 6:05:35 GMT
I was trying to look back at the impact of past SS 'seismic events' that left the secondary market flooded (eg the nine or so London houses).
I am really interested to know whether in periods of famine, presumably new investors are discouraged - but in periods of feast - in they roll. And if they roll in, then unless they are fed, the subsequent famine will be worse!
Is there a 'user number' tracker that could track users so see what the impact of splurges is?
A quickie search suggests that in early feb according to SS's 2016 review users had gone from "5,700 to over 13,000'.
Here we are at the end of march and Lendy's site now says 15,739. That's pretty impressive.
Presumably those that have claimed they are leaving SS will not actually close their accounts so there'll be no way of gauging that. I wonder if an 'average holding value' would give some idea of 'average investor confidence' as opposed to 'apparent forumite investor disillusionment' which i have a feeling might be overstated?
Jack P
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awk
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Post by awk on Jul 5, 2017 7:45:36 GMT
I'm sure that there was a tracker, but can't find it. So, has anyone been tracking the number of registered users reported by Ly?
I know that it doesn't mean active investors, but I'm interested if newbies are still joining the platform.
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Post by jackpease on Jul 5, 2017 9:43:54 GMT
agreed - number of users not meaningful - the number of *active* users ready to lend is critical. So many of us would be classed as users but are now inert give or take a small chunk of something now unsellable.
The showstopper for me is not the lower rates (also available elsewhere!) but lack of robust willingness to default and deal with the laggards (a necessary evil for high risk lending).
Jack P
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awk
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Post by awk on Jul 5, 2017 9:57:56 GMT
agreed - number of users not meaningful - the number of *active* users ready to lend is critical. So many of us would be classed as users but are now inert give or take a small chunk of something now unsellable. The showstopper for me is not the lower rates (also available elsewhere!) but lack of robust willingness to default and deal with the laggards (a necessary evil for high risk lending). Jack P I was just pondering if/how Ly will "grow" going forward. Given the availability of reasonable loans on the SM, I'm assuming that existing investors are pretty much fully invested and holding steady or looking to decline their holdings. So, the key question is whether 'new' investors are still coming on-board with 'new money'. Personally, I think the size of the SM is a bit misleading because the majority (yes, Ly hold some - and I suspect that most isn't even on the SM) is funded loans where investors have decided for all sorts of reasons to sell that particular loan. Again, investors in new loans isn't the total answer either. Neither are registered users, although I disagree that it is meaningless. So, only Ly know the true answer about 'new' money, but looking at all of the above gives the best feeling - which was why I asked if anyone had been tracking the registered user number.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Jul 5, 2017 10:03:43 GMT
Fewer using INPL because of variable rates and so bigger slices being taken by others resulting in a reduced number of "active investors".
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Jul 5, 2017 10:43:00 GMT
A notable decline, which occurs at the exactly the point that LY started to offer variable rates. Reminds me of an excellent book recommended by a fellow user on here: Paradox of Choice. It can be counter intuitive but offering more choice (different rates) and complicating your product offering actually puts off customers/lenders.
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Post by mrg on Jul 5, 2017 10:53:12 GMT
Thanks CD thats a cool chart.
Speaking from personally I think active investors has fallen not because of investors heading for the exit, or put off by lower rates. I think the issue here is that the SM has been a buyers market for so long now investors have been successful in buying the loans they wanted. If I wanted to buy the Surrey loan I could have bought last month so why would I look to buy more now. The SM has possibly spooked guys looking to buy and sell and so they are out, but as for investment I think we are all pretty much fully invested (as much as we are happy with) now.
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dovap
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Post by dovap on Jul 5, 2017 11:16:55 GMT
the greed of dropping rates on the same 'quality' of loans hasn't helped but not delivering on the repayment / default recovery is, for me anyway, the main problem. Still maybe when the Lendy junk launches a titanic Cowes week promo we'll be flooded with punters  |
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mikeh
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Post by mikeh on Jul 5, 2017 11:23:32 GMT
... sounds like we'll need a flotilla of lifeboats then.
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TonyL
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Post by TonyL on Jul 9, 2017 10:10:29 GMT
I've been tracking the number of users since I joined just over a year ago. There were 7300 when I joined and circa 16500 today. The interesting shape of the registered users chart occurs at the point Saving Stream changed there name to Lendy. Prior to the name change there was around 22 new registrations per day (and very little trend deviation), since the name change the number of new registrations per day has dropped to an average of 11 (again very little trend deviation on this figure but it is actually still falling).
Now whether the abrupt change in registrations is down to the name change or other tinkering Lendy has been doing to the platform (e.g. policy on defaults or interest accruals) is not relevant to my point which is this...had the number of registrations continued at the prior rate the number would be approximately 1000 more than today. So if you accept £166m lent by some proportion of 16500 registrations gives £10k per registration, then an extra 1000 registrations would equate to an addition £10m on the platform and would have easily wiped out the £7m currently available on the market.
I think Lendy still has some learning to do regarding their role as a market-maker because clearly this should not be a declining market of new registrations. 16500 registrations is obviously not 16500 lenders as can be seen by the "Investors So Far" on any individual loan (typically 500-3000), and the "Investors So Far" has not doubled in the same year either. 16500 is a tiny number considering the overall investment market. I hope Lendy get a grip on things soon.
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TonyL
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Post by TonyL on Jul 9, 2017 11:02:50 GMT
Personally I think it's a combination of the name and the defaults list. I know if I were new to the P2P market I'd be wary of the name Lendy as it just doesn't sound professional enough for me, so I'd almost certainly have picked one of the others first.
But I've just had a quick browse to some of the other similar platforms and it's interesting to note that before you register an account Lendy is about the only one that openly shows the full picture - Available, Pipeline and Defaults pages.
Shortly after I joined there was only one default for ages...the Garden Centre.
Now there is a whole page available to see before you even register. I'm all for transparency, but it does seem somewhat of an own goal to have a page headlining with "These are loans where we are no longer confident about the borrowers ability to repay the loan and have therefore officially defaulted the loan. Monthly interest payments are not guaranteed. We are taking all appropriate steps to recover 100% of the capital from these loans."
Obviously this defaults page would still be there for new accounts to see if it were otherwise hidden, so that may still prevent new registrations from becoming actual lenders. So I think the only real answer is to get a bit tougher on the defaults and keep their numbers down. Lendy needs to get tough on the empty promises of "the cheque's in the post...honest" from borrowers and recover the money owed from sale of the asset. This list is going to get awfully long otherwise and the platform would surely die as a result of that.
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Jul 9, 2017 11:12:21 GMT
Personally I think it's a combination of the name and the defaults list. I know if I were new to the P2P market I'd be wary of the name Lendy as it just doesn't sound professional enough for me, so I'd almost certainly have picked one of the others first. But I've just had a quick browse to some of the other similar platforms and it's interesting to note that before you register an account Lendy is about the only one that openly shows the full picture - Available, Pipeline and Defaults pages. Shortly after I joined there was only one default for ages...the Garden Centre. Now there is a whole page available to see before you even register. I'm all for transparency, but it does seem somewhat of an own goal to have a page headlining with "These are loans where we are no longer confident about the borrowers ability to repay the loan and have therefore officially defaulted the loan. Monthly interest payments are not guaranteed. We are taking all appropriate steps to recover 100% of the capital from these loans." Obviously this defaults page would still be there for new accounts to see if it were otherwise hidden, so that may still prevent new registrations from becoming actual lenders. So I think the only real answer is to get a bit tougher on the defaults and keep their numbers down. Lendy needs to get tough on the empty promises of "the cheque's in the post...honest" from borrowers and recover the money owed from sale of the asset. This list is going to get awfully long otherwise and the platform would surely die as a result of that. All good points. You're right that Lendy need to be transparent but it does seem a bit daft to shove those defaults in your face. Speaking of which, I've just been going through them. I really don't see any disasters there, although a couple may well see some capital loss that Lendy might cover. Unfortunately, these things do take time to bring to a conclusion. Some repayments, preferably from that defaulted list and the SM could still dry up pretty quickly. IMHO. 
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Jul 9, 2017 11:19:09 GMT
Personally I think it's a combination of the name and the defaults list. I know if I were new to the P2P market I'd be wary of the name Lendy as it just doesn't sound professional enough for me, so I'd almost certainly have picked one of the others first. But I've just had a quick browse to some of the other similar platforms and it's interesting to note that before you register an account Lendy is about the only one that openly shows the full picture - Available, Pipeline and Defaults pages. Shortly after I joined there was only one default for ages...the Garden Centre. Now there is a whole page available to see before you even register. I'm all for transparency, but it does seem somewhat of an own goal to have a page headlining with "These are loans where we are no longer confident about the borrowers ability to repay the loan and have therefore officially defaulted the loan. Monthly interest payments are not guaranteed. We are taking all appropriate steps to recover 100% of the capital from these loans." Obviously this defaults page would still be there for new accounts to see if it were otherwise hidden, so that may still prevent new registrations from becoming actual lenders. So I think the only real answer is to get a bit tougher on the defaults and keep their numbers down. Lendy needs to get tough on the empty promises of "the cheque's in the post...honest" from borrowers and recover the money owed from sale of the asset. This list is going to get awfully long otherwise and the platform would surely die as a result of that. All good points. You're right that Lendy need to be transparent but it does seem a bit daft to shove those defaults in your face. Speaking of which, I've just been going through them. I really don't see any disasters there, although a couple may well see some capital loss that Lendy might cover. Unfortunately, these things do take time to bring to a conclusion. Some repayments, preferably from that defaulted list and the SM could still dry up pretty quickly. IMHO. Glouc, Somerset, Fife are the stand out candidates (they were my parameters anyway before the illiquid monster chewed up 300D+ loans!).
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Jul 9, 2017 11:32:00 GMT
All good points. You're right that Lendy need to be transparent but it does seem a bit daft to shove those defaults in your face. Speaking of which, I've just been going through them. I really don't see any disasters there, although a couple may well see some capital loss that Lendy might cover. Unfortunately, these things do take time to bring to a conclusion. Some repayments, preferably from that defaulted list and the SM could still dry up pretty quickly. IMHO. Glouc, Somerset, Fife are the stand out candidates (they were my parameters anyway before the illiquid monster chewed up 300D+ loans!). Exactly. Gloucester alone would be a massive confidence boost for the platform, and I believe it's coming. When, is another matter. Plus, we have that biggie to repay that's on the horizon. Lendy have put off new borrowers a bit, that's for sure. Old hands as well for that matter. I'm still confident, though a little bit more selective.
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r1200gs
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Post by r1200gs on Jul 9, 2017 12:00:03 GMT
All good points. You're right that Lendy need to be transparent but it does seem a bit daft to shove those defaults in your face. Speaking of which, I've just been going through them. I really don't see any disasters there, although a couple may well see some capital loss that Lendy might cover. Unfortunately, these things do take time to bring to a conclusion. Some repayments, preferably from that defaulted list and the SM could still dry up pretty quickly. IMHO. Defaults are inevitable and should be expected. The problem is, there are serious questions surrounding LY's inhouse DD I give you one example... The two Somerset Loans amount to £2.5m, but are listed online @ £1.7m. Both are struggling to sell - the borrower is providing problems at the office block That is just one - there are many issues with the others (many comes down to being reliant on some shoddy VRs). PBL106 could be one of the biggest problems loans How LY handle the "Problem Loans" will provide indication of the long-term viability of the platform, and maybe the short term Yes, those are the ones I had picked out. The borrower is providing problems at the office block? Really, such a nice man of such good character? Who'd a thunk it? I had 106 picked out as suspect long ago as well. Not sure where Lendy are going with that one or what the possible outcome might be, but Somerset is going to have a substantial loss.
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