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Post by mrclondon on Aug 2, 2018 13:00:11 GMT
Perhaps slightly controversially, my main hope is that the investors that have parted with deposits for the rooms get their money back in full, and in a timely manner.
Otherwise this project will add to the sense that indirectly p2p funded projects tend to cause total loss of funds for off plan property investors. By funding projects such as this, p2p lenders are exposing off plan property investors to unacceptably high risks. (MT/BPF Birkenhead, and Lendy S** Building PBL120 are good examples)
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dovap
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Post by dovap on Aug 2, 2018 13:15:13 GMT
some might wonder if the whole 'project' was ever anything more than a scheme to expose off-plan investors to hmmm risks.
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Post by mrclondon on Aug 2, 2018 13:41:40 GMT
Hmm ... I've just received some interesting additional background ... apparently the marketing / reservations / exchanges that have been undertaken this year were on the basis of the rooms being standalone student rooms for students at local universities, and nothing to do with a language school.
So providing that doesn't contravene the planning (or that said can be easily amended) there may be another (relatively easy) exit strategy ....
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cwah
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Post by cwah on Aug 2, 2018 13:46:33 GMT
Hmm ... I've just received some interesting additional background ... apparently the marketing / reservations / exchanges that have been undertaken this year were on the basis of the rooms being standalone student rooms for students at local universities, and nothing to do with a language school.
So providing that doesn't contravene the planning (or that said can be easily amended) there may be another (relatively easy) exit strategy ...
Thanks! How can you always be aware of all these insider tips?
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Post by westcountryfunder on Aug 2, 2018 14:30:19 GMT
Yes, but I share cwah's confusion. The side letter also includes the sentence "We have valued the property on a Vacant Possession basis only, with the benefit of the current planning, we have not considered any alternate use values." I must be dim, but I can't see how that implies GDV. Correct, nothing in the VR or followup letter talks about GDV.
However, what the valuer has done is based on their experience of student developments, plucked a residual value of £10-£12k per room out of the ether. Normally you would see an attempt to set out the calculation of residual value from GDV, but not in this case.
EDIT: By way of comparison have a look at the VR's for student devs on Lendy (e.g. DFL006 where the residual value is shown calculated out as £23k per room, or DFL013 Blocks A&B at £16k per room)
I'm always willing to learn from those with greater experience. However, the valuer in this case has used his professional judgement and stated a value per room based upon "other student accommodation in the North of England and Scotland" as £10k - £12k. Either you believe that he has this knowledge, or you don't. I am insufficiently cynical to believe that this is just a figment of his imagination. Perhaps happily this is significantly less than the Lendy examples, albeit in a different part of the UK. And am I not right in saying that residual value calculations are themselves problematic, so perhaps there is no surprise not used in this case? Here's hoping for a reasonable outcome, rather more likely in this instance than in some loans of which many of us are aware.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Aug 2, 2018 18:12:36 GMT
Hmm ... I've just received some interesting additional background ... apparently the marketing / reservations / exchanges that have been undertaken this year were on the basis of the rooms being standalone student rooms for students at local universities, and nothing to do with a language school.
So providing that doesn't contravene the planning (or that said can be easily amended) there may be another (relatively easy) exit strategy ....
I have posted a link on DD central to what looks like one of the agents that has been marketing the rooms for sale. Plus a link to one of the agents that has a video, including the front of the grade 2 listed building, advertising the rooms.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Aug 2, 2018 18:40:00 GMT
If I had any experience I would be tempted to buy this at fire sale price of around 400k and develop it.
Paisley is a very underrated town, personally I like it a lot. The only problem is a lot of benefit street types around.
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dermot
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Post by dermot on Aug 2, 2018 20:05:48 GMT
Hooray - a defaulted loan on MT in which I have no investment.
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mikeh
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Post by mikeh on Aug 2, 2018 20:14:12 GMT
Hooray - a defaulted loan on MT in which I have no investment. Yep. First for me too.
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applets
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Post by applets on Aug 2, 2018 20:16:01 GMT
They have since decided to move out again, although whether there is enough cars, bling, pawn, etc to sustain a business is still to be proven. Most p2p companies tried to expand rapidly by getting into property, and most came unstuck, as cowboy developers took the money (somtimes including purchase deposits) and ran .. overseas if possible.
On this particular loan, Ed was well warned and ignored us, collecting some negative kudos along the way, imo.
Yes, they did say this, but the weekly pipeline suggests property loans are still on the way. Further, not too many loans for cars, bling etc have come along since their announcement. Either way, I have become less convinced they will continue to exist for that much longer. Hopefully, I will be proven wrong.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Aug 2, 2018 20:17:37 GMT
I think the development loans have been pulled. I guess bridging loans are still on the table, where the security at least exists and can be (mis)valued.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Aug 2, 2018 21:58:31 GMT
Hooray - a defaulted loan on MT in which I have no investment. Yep. First for me too. We’re dodgin’ bullets, weeee!
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woodie
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Post by woodie on Aug 2, 2018 22:44:54 GMT
Obviously I have no idea who you are mrclondon, but if I were Ed the offer of a consultancy would be in the post.
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Aug 3, 2018 2:37:36 GMT
Obviously I have no idea who you are mrclondon, but if I were Ed the offer of a consultancy would be in the post. Wrong. Ed has diametral incentives.
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on Aug 3, 2018 11:13:30 GMT
So 90 day valuation of £750k would be a fire sale price on current value? Sold as is? You mentioned previously it may worth £400k as is. 90D is not fire sale. Try halving it for likely 1D auction (at best). And then put your money in black box accounts
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