Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Aug 22, 2017 17:35:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2017 7:57:11 GMT
Last year on the Mosel I looked at 8 bedroomed castelated winery (without vinyards but with empty cellars), above flooding level and within a stone's throw of the Mosel for less than £450k You can't find that in Leeds for that money
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2017 9:49:25 GMT
US will hit* the debt ceiling around October... share judders in September might happen. *technically hit in march but using up spare cash which should run out soonish... Since the US gov always moves the ceiling everytime it hits it then I suspect it will again I'm less worried that Trump will achieve anything as clearly he has been so unsuccessful so far (see latest "I will close down US government to build that wall" nonsense), but ....
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jonah
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Post by jonah on Aug 23, 2017 19:20:43 GMT
US will hit* the debt ceiling around October... share judders in September might happen. *technically hit in march but using up spare cash which should run out soonish... Since the US gov always moves the ceiling everytime it hits it then I suspect it will again I'm less worried that Trump will achieve anything as clearly he has been so unsuccessful so far (see latest "I will close down US government to build that wall" nonsense), but .... I agree it will up the limit. The 'fun' part will be the fact that there are more 'tea party' folk in congress than historically so they will have to be persuded to allow it... which could lead to brinkmanship which could like to judders. That said, I'm currently not selling the shares I own (which based on the last 5-6 days isn't a good move)
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Post by captainconfident on Aug 24, 2017 8:24:00 GMT
Last year on the Mosel I looked at 8 bedroomed castelated winery (without vinyards but with empty cellars), above flooding level and within a stone's throw of the Mosel for less than £450k You can't find that in Leeds for that money Have you already transfer your £ into Euros?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2017 12:06:10 GMT
Well apart from P2P (income of which I live on in the UK) and the UK house (in which I live) everything is invested outside the UK in one way or another. Without starting a political argument it is hard to explain further. Though to be fair a good bit of it is denominated in Sterling. Since I think the £ has a good bit yet to fall not really an issue.
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Post by wiseclerk on Aug 24, 2017 19:06:17 GMT
@bobo just heard by chance on the radio that price for land (with premission to build granted) in Rhineland Palatine jumped up 9% compared to last year - now the average is 133 Euro per square meter. They didn't mention house prices but I'd think they have risen considerably in the past year too, as many people are trying to move money into property in the absence of interesting investments choices.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2017 8:03:58 GMT
I was reading the reports for TPF (a Berlin focused REIT), a few days back and they are no longer buying in property as the opportunities are no longer there, just trying to upgrade and maximise value with their existing assets. Looks like Berlin is starting down the bubble route, but outside the big cities still some real opportunities. Retired 7 years now but still well short of 60. We are all exposed to FX, just some of us don't realise it Chats to American friends; think that DT speaks in that unstructured manner out of habit and he is used to his staff having to learn how to interpret his speach, however, they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him as President. Then of course he will benefit from the "Guiness" defence (for younger readers; a CEO of Guiness claimed his crimes in charge of a business was due to dementia, which got him off and then he recovered from dementia, allegedly). "so great, I even got over dementia"...
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Post by bracknellboy on Aug 25, 2017 8:18:22 GMT
Disclaimer: I am no expert on these things, but this doesn't stop me from having an opinion.
I agree with @bobo that the standard mantra about FX exposure in pensions or when you are later in life is IMHO a bit overblown. If you have all your assets in your "home" currency then you still have FX exposure, but arguably manifesting itself through inflation risk and home country asset value risk.
If my home currency depreciates and i "consume " a substantive amount of imported goods (either as finished goods or by way of incorporation into home country finished goods), do I have more or less FX exposure by way of keeping all assets in home currency.
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Post by yorkshireman on Aug 25, 2017 9:13:32 GMT
I was reading the reports for TPF (a Berlin focused REIT), a few days back and they are no longer buying in property as the opportunities are no longer there, just trying to upgrade and maximise value with their existing assets. Looks like Berlin is starting down the bubble route, but outside the big cities still some real opportunities. Retired 7 years now but still well short of 60. We are all exposed to FX, just some of us don't realise it Chats to American friends; think that DT speaks in that unstructured manner out of habit and he is used to his staff having to learn how to interpret his speach, however, they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him as President. Then of course he will benefit from the "Guiness" defence (for younger readers; a CEO of Guiness claimed his crimes in charge of a business was due to dementia, which got him off and then he recovered from dementia, allegedly). "so great, I even got over dementia"... “they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him” Any possibility that the British Labour party and public could apply this tactic to Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott?
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Aug 25, 2017 10:18:11 GMT
“they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him” Any possibility that the British Labour party and public could apply this tactic to Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott? Let's hope not; they might become electable again
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2017 10:27:46 GMT
I was reading the reports for TPF (a Berlin focused REIT), a few days back and they are no longer buying in property as the opportunities are no longer there, just trying to upgrade and maximise value with their existing assets. Looks like Berlin is starting down the bubble route, but outside the big cities still some real opportunities. Retired 7 years now but still well short of 60. We are all exposed to FX, just some of us don't realise it Chats to American friends; think that DT speaks in that unstructured manner out of habit and he is used to his staff having to learn how to interpret his speach, however, they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him as President. Then of course he will benefit from the "Guiness" defence (for younger readers; a CEO of Guiness claimed his crimes in charge of a business was due to dementia, which got him off and then he recovered from dementia, allegedly). "so great, I even got over dementia"... “they also see the growing interest in his mental health as possible way out for him” Any possibility that the British Labour party and public could apply this tactic to Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott? To be fair Abbott has admitted to a physical/mental issue which will keep her out of the front line
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Post by peerlessperil on Aug 27, 2017 21:03:15 GMT
My additions to your "black swan" list: - The next great Californian/Kanto earthquake happens
- Break-up of the euro
- Poland opts to leave the EU
- New strain of bird flu that we can't contain
- Antibiotic-resistant strain of plague breaks loose, ebola appears outside Africa or similar
- Air traffic control hacked
- China credit bust
- India & Pakistan go to war (properly), nuclear weapons unleashed
- Permafrost reaches tipping point, huge methane release accelerates global warming
- Major volcanic eruption triggers global cooling & crop failures (think Krakatoa x 10)
- Unprecedented sun storm fries our power grids & electronics
- "Agadoo" is re-released and Black Lace top the charts
These are all a bit depressing so I'll add some positive "black swans", in the interest of statistical balance of course:
- Nuclear fusion finally delivers unlimited cheap energy
- Telsa was right about his zero point energy field
- We learn to manipulate gravity
- Einstein's theory of special relativity is superseded and we can exceed to speed of light
- Christ's second coming
- All p2p platforms turn out to have their lenders' interests at heart and none of them go bust.
That last one is the most improbable of the lot (well, in my lifetime), so make sure you are prepared!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2017 12:14:18 GMT
Thanks peerless, I see Bagehot has an Atlas and Albion article that reflects on the Corbyn black swan.
Right at the bottom Luke Johnson lobs in his views. I knew Luke as a young lad and found him frustrating but with a good brain and a good man at looking into the future. I recommend the article to you.
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Post by peerlessperil on Aug 28, 2017 15:22:29 GMT
Thanks peerless, I see Bagehot has an Atlas and Albion article that reflects on the Corbyn black swan. Right at the bottom Luke Johnson lobs in his views. I knew Luke as a young lad and found him frustrating but with a good brain and a good man at looking into the future. I recommend the article to you. Ouch...I'm a decade younger than Luke Johnson, so that makes me a stroppy toddler.... Thanks for the Bagehot article. Shame he has to refer to Rees-Mogg as a "pantomime toff"- beneath the veneer I suspect there lurks a very sharp operator, and SCM survived his tenure. Anyway, back to dealing with my own stroppy toddlers....
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